Forrester Publishes Its First Online Retail Forecast For Brazil And Mexico

Over the past year, we’ve worked together with the forecast team at Forrester to help eBusiness professionals understand the size of different online retail markets around the globe. Last year we published our first look at the online retail markets in some of the major markets in Asia-Pacific — this year, we’ve just published our first forecast for two of the largest online retail markets in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico. Some findings from the report include:

  • Brazil is — and will remain — the powerhouse in the region. With more than 40% of the online users in the region and a steadily growing economy, it’s not surprising that Brazil’s eCommerce market will outpace all others by a wide margin. Brazil’s projected 2011 sales of almost $10B put it behind other major online retail markets like France and South Korea but ahead of smaller ones such as the Netherlands and Italy.
  • Mexico’s online retail market is small today — but growing by a CAGR of almost 20%. With less than half of the online users of Brazil and limited online spending, Mexico’s online retail market remains a small fraction of the size of Brazil’s. Average online spending per buyer will not increase significantly over the next five years, but the sheer number of online buyers will.
  • Technology purchases will be major drivers in both countries. While some eCommerce markets have seen notable categories emerge as online leaders — e.g., grocery in the UK, clothing in France — in newer online markets, it’s often technology purchases that dominate online. In both Brazil and Mexico, for example, online purchases of consumer electronics and computer hardware will be the two categories propelling these markets forward.

Check out our report for a topline view of the data included in the forecast — ForecastView subscribers have full access to the model including category data and per-capita online spending.