Top questions for Yahoo about its Tumblr acquisition

Now that Yahoo has announced its acquisition of Tumblr for $1.1 billion in cash — about a quarter of its cash reserves — the top three questions I see are:

  • How will Yahoo manage to retain, and grow, the Tumblr user base while monetizing it? Today, Tumblr is quite unprofitable, and its lack of advertising is one of the many attributes that have made it popular. Yahoo has a very difficult balancing act ahead: It has to keep Tumblr's current active user base passionately engaged and spending time on the site, while also finding a way to add advertising and other revenue sources. Marissa Mayer, Yahoo’s CEO, stated the ads will be “very light” and “really fit users’ expectations”; however, Ken Goldman, Yahoo’s CFO, added that Tumblr should "materially contribute to revenues" in 2014 and beyond. If users do not stay with the service, they will have bought a ghost town. 
  • Can the Tumblr user base be the next influx of loyal Yahoo users? Yahoo still has a massive user base, with at least 200 million users of Mail alone, and a passionate audience on Flickr. However, it is seeking its next core audience, and Tumblr users could fit the bill.  This is a similar challenge to Facebook's motivation for acquiring Instagram, however Facebook has so far held off on adding advertising to the Instagram platform. 
  • How will Tumblr fit into Yahoo’s existing product portfolio? Yahoo has announced it plans to keep Tumblr independent, leaving both its brand and management intact. However, over time, there will be pressure to integrate it more and more tightly with other Yahoo properties. Will existing Yahoo products gain some of Tumblr’s social DNA, or will Tumblr lose some of what makes it unique?
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Event Marketing Giveaways That Work

Between events and trade shows, nearly a quarter of the average B2B marketer’s budget is spent on events, dwarfing all other marketing mix categories, including website and advertising spending. Your customers agree that in-person events are highly influential. For example, in our Q3 2012 survey of business hardware buyers, 68% of respondents state that in-person events are important for researching and evaluating what to purchase.

As an analyst, I both attend and participate in a number of different trade shows, customer events, and industry or role events each year — including our own Forrester Forum For Marketing Leaders April 18-19 this year in Los Angeles. 

No matter what the event, vendors have event giveaways — or swag — for their customers and prospects. Marketing swag — when done right — can help you get the most value out of the events you are already running or attending. How? People will remember you favorably, and that's a good start to a follow-on sales conversation or marketing touch. Unfortunately, many giveaways fail to reach that objective, and waste both time and money.

I’ve created an interactive tool for clients, with three major categories of factors used to evaluate your event giveaways or swag. Consider:

  1. If the swag connects back to your brand message enough to be worth offering it all: The $2 bill test; Company branding; Value alignment.
  2. How valuable and useful the swag is for your intended audience: Usability; Interactivity; Durability; Portability.
  3. How practical the item is logistically: Unit cost; Reusability; Portability.
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Penny Arcade's Influence On Tech Products Versus Forrester Research

Your perpetually-connected customers are seeking information from a much broader range of sources than ever before. If you just work with the same traditional influencers you have for years — industry analysts and mainstream media — your message risks getting lost in a sea of noise.  Instead, leading marketers are identifying key online influencers for their products and marketing to them specifically.  These influencers are highly specific, and are not the same for any two products or solutions, or even two different audiences of a single product. 

The value of reaching out to a non-traditional list of influencers was illustrated this week by Microsoft’s marketing campaign for the new Surface Pro. 

Mike “Gabe” Krahulik is the author of the long-running Penny Arcade, a popular webcomic about video game culture.  He said on Twitter he was “interested in the Surface Pro,” and due to the target audience and popularity of his comic, Microsoft sent him a demo unit.  Gabe’s not a technology journalist; he’s not an industry analyst; he’s just someone with a passionate and tech-savvy following — a following which includes perpetually-connected customers who influence technology purchasing.

What happened next? Gabe wrote a full-length, relatively positive, review of the Surface Pro and its applications for media professionals that was not only read by his audience, but became a top link on TechMeme, a tech news aggregator.

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The ROI Of "Owner" Communities

Two of the most common questions we receive from marketers are “How do I know if it’s worth having a community?” and “How can I prove to my executives that my community is worth their investment?” To get the initial funding and keep support coming for an owner community — one which you operate and fully brand on your own website — you must be able to clearly measure and communicate the value up to your CMO and CFO. That means capturing the effect it will have on your company’s profitability as a part of your overall marketing investments.

As a part of a new research report I just published today with Shaheen Parks, we built upon Forrester’s Total Economic Impact™ (TEI) methodology to provide you with a reference framework to estimate the ROI of your community. 

We suggest that you focus on these three qualitative benefits, which form the core of our framework:

  • New lead generation: How many new leads or prospects come to your company each year because of your community, multiplied by your average deal size and overall lead close rate.
  • Increase in lead close or conversion rate: The effect your community has on your overall lead close rate, multiplied by your average deal size.
  • Deflection of support calls: How many potential support calls get answered by the community, multiplied by your average cost per call.
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Testing Facebook Graph Search: First Thoughts

My Facebook account is now part of the beta group for Facebook Graph Search, and I’ve spent some time taking it for a spin.

It’s clear this will be a powerful feature, but as Nate Elliott has already blogged, it feels like something Facebook should have built some time ago. What I predict to be the most common searches, such as “which of my friends live in London” or “people my friends are friends with who work at Ford Motors,” are powerful, but basic, features that users have been requesting for a long time. The first rollout will also be missing obvious road map features, including the ability to search for links and status updates that you or your graph have posted. 

Facebook Graph Search: Photos of Bacon by my friends

The success of any individual Graph Search reflects what data (and activities) users directly provide Facebook, and today, many of the online activities that Graph Search encompasses take place on other social properties. Facebook often facilitates the social graphs of the other social properties with Facebook Connect, but Graph Search cannot “see” into that data. The average Facebook “like” is also less meaningful than Facebook's development team hopes, as others have also blogged

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B2B Marketers: Why Link To Your Facebook Group From Your Corporate Home Page?

 

Don’t link to your Facebook brand page from your B2B corporate home page just to show your CMO you know what Facebook is.

Forrester has long-viewed our POST — people, objectives, strategy, and tools/technology, in that order — methodology as a primary tool for social marketers to use when developing a social strategy. This requires thinking about your audience and their social behaviors first (people), then your business objectives that you are using social to meet, then what your strategy should be, and finally, what tools, technology, and platforms will help you reach your goals. Yet I’m having more and more conversations with B2B marketers who haven’t articulated their audience’s business social behaviors about social platforms they maintain a corporate presence on and link to on their corporate home pages.

Your customers’ and prospects’ use of social is exceedingly context dependent — and you only care what they are doing in a business context in relation to your solution. Forrester’s data consistently shows that Facebook is not very influential in the B2B purchase process. For this reason, before you decide to put a link to your Facebook group (or page) on your B2B corporate home page because your peers in other organizations have done so, or your CMO requested it, consider the following questions:

  • Does my audience use Facebook in the context of my solutions (e.g., to talk about networking hardware or financial services), or just in a personal context (e.g., to look at photos of their children’s soccer game or talk about their upcoming vacation)?
  • Do I have an active community on Facebook so that when a customer goes to my Facebook page, they will have a positive experience with my brand?
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Listen To Customers, Engage With Influencers

As you plan your 2013 social marketing initiatives, one area for you to focus on is influencer identification and engagement. I’ve been speaking to a number of B2B marketers recently who have begun to move beyond reactive responses to complaints to proactively reach out to people who are speaking out socially and creating influential content about their products and services.

Don’t let yourself be deceived; your key influencers are already having conversations, whether or not you’ve begun a marketing initiative to interact with them.  However, engagement will fuel the fire behind their conversations, and allow you to generate more positive content about your products and your company.  Finally, your engaged influencers, when they are your promoters as well as being influential, can supplement your existing customer advocate (or reference) programs.  Traditional reference programs don’t scale because each reference only speaks to one prospect at a time. By engaging those folks and encouraging them to create public content, you can expand their influence on your prospects.

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The Integrated Marketing Train Has Left The Station: Social Marketing And Email Marketing

Here’s one of the biggest trends for off-domain social initiatives that I’m tracking as I kick off a new overview of social tools for B2B marketers: Marketers like you no longer want just the perfect point solution for each new social marketing campaign; instead, they want integrated solutions and are starting to use larger software packages aimed at providing complete digital marketing solutions.

This is welcome news because successful social programs should be part of your comprehensive marketing plans; they can’t exist as their own island. Several years ago, B2B marketing organizations could run their social marketing initiatives in a silo, but today they must coordinate them with their lead origination and lead nurturing programs as well as with other awareness campaigns. 

The three leaders in the most recent Forrester Wave™ evaluation of email marketing vendors reflect this change in their products; they all promote their social offerings front and center on their home pages, often with the same prominence as their traditional email offerings.  Screenshots of each of those home pages are below.

ExactTarget expanded into social marketing beginning with its acquisition of CoTweet some time ago in March 2010.It now has a “Social Marketing Hub” as a part of its “Interactive Marketing Hub” — email marketing is just one of three product categories on its website, getting equal billing with both social and mobile marketing.

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The Contexts Around Which You Build Your B2B Community

CLICK: A design framework for online communities: Context, Linkages, Identity, Conversations, Knowledge Assets

As a part of our research on building B2B communities, I recently did a whiteboard exercise with Kim Celestre and we attempted to categorize all of the different types, or Contexts, of B2B communities. The Context in which your audience wants to engage with your community is the first stage of our new CLICK design framework for building B2B communities, followed by Linkages, Knowledge assets, Identity, and Conversations; the model is outlined in the graphic on the right.  (If you’re a client of ours, check out the full report).

Your community context — defined as the circumstances and settings that determine how you and other community members interact — should be the first design point for a new community. All other decisions, including both if it should be on your own domain or part of a larger social network and the choice of technology platform, will follow.

Please take a look at these dozen different contexts and let me know what you think.  I’ve grouped them along one of the axis of our community strategy matrix; whether or not your brand is central to the community.  I’m especially interested in any contexts you think I’ve left out or that don’t fit. 

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What Twitter's API Changes Mean For B2B Marketers And Vendors Of Social Marketing Tools

While it has been covered in many other places across the Web (start with Marco Arment, then Ben Brooks), Twitter’s API changes today should worry any social marketers who use tools and technologies that interact with Twitter.

In Twitter’s announcement, they state that they are not going to penalize “Enterprise Clients” and vendors of “Social Analytics” — every quadrant but the top right of their visualization, below. However, Twitter did not clearly delineate lines between what is and is not acceptable.  To continue to grow, Twitter needs to encourage a robust and healthy ecosystem, which supports both marketers and users. In order to do that, Twitter must provide much clearer guidance about the long-term stability of its APIs and its support for businesses built on top of their data.  If this requires announcements of additional fees for data usage, that will be fine as long as the rules of the road are clearly laid out. 

Until Twitter does so, I expect the volume of new enterprise-ready startups centered on Twitter to reduce, and existing vendors will increase their focus on other platforms and communities as CEOs and boards of directors try to reduce their risk and exposure to future changes by Twitter.

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