It is safe to say that online and mobile banking have hit mainstream. Today, more than half of all adults with a bank account in France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK use banking services — which we define as information requests, transactions, or alert delivery — on their PCs, tablets, or mobile phones. The uptake of tablets and smartphones gives banks an opportunity to engage their customers deeply across platforms. Our recently published Forrester Research Digital Banking Forecast, 2013 To 2018 (EU-7) explores how each Internet-connected device will drive future online and mobile banking adoption across seven key European markets.
The forecast identifies some key trends in the European digital banking market.
1. Mobile banking adoption continues its sturdy growth. As recently as 2009, mobile banking activity was negligible, representing fewer than 5% of all adults with accounts. Adoption has risen nearly fourfold since and will continue to grow at double-digit compound annual growth rates through 2018. However, consumer concerns about device security will restrain growth: In all the European countries we track other than Italy and Spain, consumers are more than twice as likely to cite security concerns as a reason for not using mobile banking than for not using PC/tablet online banking.
With almost 80% of homes in the EU-7 (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and UK) having online access in 2013, Internet connections are a standard household component today in Western Europe. And as users demand faster connections to consume rich media content across multiple devices, broadband connectivity is quickly becoming the norm. The Forrester Research Online Access Forecast — Broadband, 2012 To 2017 (EU-7) shows that 72% of all EU-7 households had a DSL, cable, or fiber broadband subscription in 2012, well above the global average. But not all European countries show the same level of adoption. Within this group of seven, we can split the countries into three distinct groups of relative broadband development and adoption:
Advanced adopters. The Netherlands and Sweden lead the pack in terms of both broadband penetration and the share of broadband users opting for high-speed connections. Early and robust deployment of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks and strong cable offerings will encourage most consumers to shift away from slower connections, giving cable and fiber more than a 60% share of the home broadband market by 2017. Sweden in particular has one of the world’s strongest high-speed Internet markets today, with more than a quarter of all households enjoying a fiber connection.
Coca-Cola recently announced that it is jumping into the red-hot Indian online retail arena by selling directly to consumers and small businesses, a first for a FMCG (CPG) company in India. While the Indian online retail story is still being written and Forrester is bullish about the long-term prospects for this channel, the immediate challenges need to be managed effectively.
Logistics and fulfillment are the largest challenges of them all in India, with more than half of all online retail sales being done using cash on delivery (COD). While COD is essential in a nascent eCommerce market, it can have a large negative impact on business margins. This is exacerbated in a nascent market where consumers are testing this new medium of ordering goods, as the return rates can be quite high. In India, reportedly, the return rates can vary from 5% to more than 25%, depending on the category, the demographics of the online buyers, and their online tenure (experience with the Internet).