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Tony Costa serves Customer Experience Professionals. See the full Analyst bio.
Visit Forrester.com to learn how we make Customer Experience Professionals successful every day.
Follow Tony on Twitter.
Posted by Tony Costa on September 13, 2012
Apple's new iPhone 5 is a case study in incremental improvement. Nearly every aspect of the product -- the CPU, display, cameras, radio modem, size, weight, etc. -- are all improved over the iPhone 4S and at the same $199 price point. No doubt, the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 will sell millions of units, preserve Apple's momentum, and hold off the competition, but significant threats are mounting that Apple cannot afford to ignore:
While platforms are at the heart of ecosystems, devices are their lifeblood. Devices are the consumer's entry point to an ecosystem and the vehicles through which platforms are brought to life. Without compelling devices, platforms cease to be relevant. For the second year in a row, Apple has put forth significantly improved but underwhelming iPhones. Apple's failure to continually bring new device innovations to the market allows competitors to catch up and threaten its iOS platform.
Like all empires, platforms rise and fall. Just five years ago, Apple launched its first iPhone, and people were questioning whether or not Apple even had a chance in the mobile market. And nobody would have predicted Nokia's dramatic decline after 15 years at the top of the mobile market. Today, Apple's iOS platform and ecosystem seem invincible. But all empires eventually crumble, and unless Apple ups its device innovation game, we may be seeing Apple's iOS empire approaching its zenith.
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Comments
A little premature
I'm sorry, but this analysis is a little premature. The Nokia Lumia Pureview technology has not been demoed or truly seen (the scandal around the ads surrounding this tech say a lot about their confidence in it). The Lumia promises to be a great phone, but by no means is it yet a significant threat to the iPhone. We still have to see how well it gels with the Microsoft OS. This is not to say it *couldn't* be a serious threat, but until we've seen the phone perform in the real world, I wouldn't simply announce this. NFC is an emergent tech, it may be big 2 or 3 years from now, but is not in wide use today. By then, Apple can incorporate it into future models.
There's a lot of hype surrounding Windows 8 and it's mega-launch. Truth is, Microsoft has been nervous about even allowing journalists to get hands-on with its new surface tablet. Again, it *might* be an awesome tech and challenge to Apple, but it still remains to be seen...and I for one, am not convinced in Microsoft's ability to pull this off seamlessly.
Amazon is indeed, the only actual, current threat to Apple. They have different business models and it remains to be seen if one will become more dominant than the other.
Lastly, this bandwagon approach to claiming that Apple is losing its lead is getting a little tired. Yes, their products are reaching maturity and stability. They have not yet come up with the iChip implant that'll allow you to interface with the net by planting a cyborg chip in your brain, or the biological or quantum Apple computer. Year over year, Apple makes steady, measurable improvements to its product lines and its manufacturing processes. The iPhone 5 will be the thinnest phone of its class. Their manufacturing and logistics are almost as impressive as their products. I don't doubt, when the next emergent technology ripens to be introduced, Apple will be the first (or one of the first), to introduce it to revolutionize computing. Until then, they are likely to stay ahead of the game in terms of product quality and user experience.