That’s kind of a bold statement to make when many companies — be they media players or the likes of Facebook — face a mobile monetization gap and when most successful companies generate only dozens of millions of dollars of direct mobile transactions. Despite the hype around “freemium” models, the reality is that few companies can now rely on a standalone mobile business model and that most mobile business models remain unproven.
The Web extended most business models and created only a small number of truly successful new ones. Mobile will follow the same path: Extension, rather than disruption, will be the norm for most businesses, with a few disruptive mobile pure-plays as the exception but not the rule. That doesn’t mean, however, that mobile-first businesses won’t disrupt existing players. Mobile is an enabler of new direct-to-consumer products already, in industries such as car services, food delivery, and home health products. And mobile is disrupting born-on-the-Web companies such as Facebook.
Unlike Ovi a couple of years ago, this brand will speak for itself. This is all about interaction with places around you, about context. Thanks to a best-of-breed product experience, Nokia is well positioned to deliver the most differentiated location experience.
During “Mapplegate” at the launch of iOS 6, my colleague Ted Schadler explained why it was a strategic imperative for Apple to do its own maps. However, at that time, most consumers and observers were comparing only Apple and Google Maps. The harsh reality was that Nokia couldn’t leverage its strength in the location-based space without an umbrella brand like “here.”
Make no mistake: This is not “HERE by Nokia” or any other form of sub-brand. This is an independent brand. Why? Because the opportunity is bigger than just Nokia.
This is about addressing different types of connected devices — not just mobile phones but also tablets, connected cars, and wearables. As such, “HERE” could play a pivotal role in helping Nokia leverage tomorrow’s new mobile form factors.
A year ago, Forrester fielded a Global Mobile Maturity Online Survey. We interviewed more than 250 executives in charge of their companies’ mobile strategies around the globe.
To help executives and product strategists benchmark and mature their mobile consumer approach, we’re updating this survey.
Planning and organizing for the use of mobile technologies is a complex task. Integrating mobile as part of a broader corporate strategy is even more complex. However some players are leading the way and working on infrastructure, staffing, and competencies that are hard to see unless you look closely. If you want to understand the role that mobile is playing in various organizations, what their objectives are, how they measure the success of their mobile initiatives, and a lot more, you just have to share with us your own perspective and we will aggregate answers. For your efforts, we will share a free copy of the survey results.
If you’re in charge of your company's mobile consumer initiative or if you’re familiar with it, then please take this survey.
Mobile phones and tablets are becoming the remote controls of our daily lives. Smartphones are the new digital hub for a growing percentage of consumers, while tablets are starting to rule the personal computing landscape at home and at work. In a previous post, I elaborated on why I think tablets are not mobile devices per se. Moving forward, new mobile form factors will emerge, and we expect wearable computing to gain traction. The definition of mobility is likely to evolve, but what’s certain is that increasingly connected devices will enable us to interact with the world around us by leveraging a host of new technologies packaged into smarter devices — be they QR codes, NFC, image recognition, Bluetooth 4.0, new sensors, etc. The physical world will be a catalyst for spontaneous interactions and for commerce via mobile devices. I think we’re only scratching the surface of new mobile behaviors (and what those will lead to), but mobile devices will become the primary digital connection to your customers.
Since the beginning of the year (with a peak in July, thanks to this Bloomberg article), there have been rumors that Apple would launch an iPad mini with a 7.85-inch display. Speculation is now high that the launch could be announced October 17 — a week prior to the big Microsoft buzz about Windows 8 and in due time for the holiday rush and the seasonal year-end sales — in an attempt to lock new tablet buyers in to the iOS ecosystem. The biggest iPad mini conundrum is likely to be pricing — making sure that the new device remains competitive in the face of the iPad 2 and iPad 3 and the newly launched iPod Touch but also with Google's $199 Nexus 7 and the new $199 Kindle Fire HD. Don’t count on me to comment on rumors and share my personal take on the features the device could have, etc. Some of my colleagues are better placed than I am to make a call and will do so in due time.
Let’s step back from the hype for one moment.
It took two years for Apple to sell 67 million iPads versus 24 years to sell 67 million Macs. It took the company two years to sell one million iPods. Arguably, the iPod, coupled with the iTunes ecosystem, disrupted the music industry. Needless to say, new connected devices — mostly smartphones and tablets — will be even more disruptive. Forrester forecasts an installed base of 760 million tablets globally by 2016, and my colleague Frank Gillett has explained why we believe that tablets will run the personal computing landscape at work and at home.
A lot has changed in a year. Samsung sold 20 million Galaxy S III devices this summer, while Google recently announced that more than 1.3 million Android devices are activated each day — and that it would soon reach the milestone of 0.5 billion Android users. The San José court’s recent decision to fine Samsung $1 billion for copying Apple raised a number of complex questions regarding what exactly innovation means in the smartphone era. While it badly affected Samsung’s brand image, Samsung has a larger portfolio of mobile devices and has also proved it was able to innovate with the Note.
Even more so than a year ago, Apple’s product strategists face an ongoing paradox: maintaining premium leadership with an annual product renewal while tapping the rapidly “mainstreaming” global smartphone market. Consequently, expectations were extremely high — often irrationally so — that Apple would once again truly innovate with hardware design and features.
Forrester estimates that close to 100 million Near Field Communication (NFC) devices will ship in 2012. As it finally moves past the chicken-or-egg stalemate of the past five years, contactless technology is once again causing buzz in the mobile world. The 2012 London Olympics will be a showcase and marketing catalyst for NFC services. Will NFC join the cemetery of overhyped telecom acronyms, like DVB-H, or will it scale to enable new product experiences? We expect NFC usage to remain niche in 2012 and even 2013. However, moving forward, NFC will be embedded in most smartphones — and in a greater range of connected devices — enabling many more use cases than just contactless payments.
NFC Is Emerging As The Global Mobile Contactless Standard
With 100 million NFC mobile devices expected to ship globally by the end of 2012 and a growing NFC infrastructure, NFC is emerging as the standard for contactless solutions across the world. Pioneering countries include South Korea, Poland, Turkey, the UK, the US and to a lesser extent France.
Expectations For The Uptake Of Mobile Contactless Payments Are Too High
Turning adoption into mass-market usage among consumers will require not only a lot of market education but also, more importantly, the construction of a value proposition for consumers and merchants that goes well beyond convenience and speed to adding value to the entire commerce process. My colleague Denée Carrington has just published a report on this topic: “Why The Digital Wallet Wars Matter.”
NFC Will Open Up Many Other New Product And Service Experiences
Too many firms are investing in mobile technologies without a road map. Most companies are investing in a wide range of mobile technologies, but only 40% of companies that Forrester interviewed have defined a mobile road map for the next 12 months. In fact, few firms have a detailed plan on how to create mobile products and services.
Implementing a mobile road map requires an iterative approach. To add new mobile services, product strategists must evaluate consumers’ mobile behaviors and attitudes, adapt their companies’ mobile business plans, refine their overall digital road maps, and assess the maturity levels of mobile technologies.
Successful mobile road maps require investment in supporting activities. Making specific investments in mobile education and skills development, maintaining organizational flexibility to increase speed to market, and adapting to local markets are key to the success of a mobile road map.
For example, the most advanced firms have a mobile steering committee in place — usually part of a broader digital governance team — with representatives from different business units, different roles, and different geographies. The role of such a governance body is not just to set the vision but also to prioritize and select mobile projects based on a clear list of criteria. One global brand’s mobile governance body, for example, identified up to 100 planned mobile initiatives. To select the best ones and rationalize investment, it put a framework in place with four simple questions for candidates to justify the funding of their projects: What benefits will it bring to consumers; what corporate objectives will it serve; what’s the business case; and what new features will be required in the second year?
In July 2012, app stores — first popularized by Apple — will be four years old. There is still a lot of room to improve the discoverability and sharing of apps. For example, locally relevant content and monetization options are often missing. Adding social discovery, personalization, and recommendation features are key to improving the user experience.
However, app stores have already had a dramatic impact on the distribution of games and are starting to offer new forms of engagement between brands and consumers. Consumer usage of the most popular mobile apps has exploded in the past two years. A third of European online consumers ages 18+ who own a smartphone are using apps daily or more frequently. Seventeen percent are using apps several times a day. Stickiness and frequency of usage vary tremendously from one app category to the other. Among European online consumers ages 18+ with installed apps on their smartphones, 57% use social networking and 48% use news apps at least daily, while 69% use finance and banking apps at least weekly.
First-generation apps — aside from gaming apps — rarely made the most of the unique attributes of the mobile platform and were rarely integrated with back-end systems. We believe the market is poised for a second wave of consumer apps that are more personalized and contextual. Here’s what to expect:
■ “Big data” will enable more contextual experiences on mobile apps.
■ We'll see smarter, connected apps.
■ There will be a shift from native to hybrid and web apps.