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Posted by Stefan Ried on April 21, 2011
Today, Forrester has published its report “Sizing The Cloud”. This report applies Forrester’s sizing methodology for emerging markets to the cloud computing market for the first time. This methodology allows us not only to apply our growth assumptions to the current numbers for cloud markets, but also to take into account when those markets will hit saturation and see commoditization, affecting the price of a cloud service over time. The result? The first serious attempt to size the cloud computing market for the next 10 years.
Cloud computing definitions are still a challenge. Virtualization technologies, management tools, and service provider industrialization have evolved continuously and at an amazing speed over the past five years. Each year, it gets harder to make clear-cut distinctions, based on technology, between what is a cloud and what is simply a virtualized data center or a traditional hosting provider. Therefore, Forrester decided to focus instead on the major disruption in the IT industry that cloud computing is bringing about — disruption based not on technology but on the business model under which IT operates. For our sizing forecast, we used Forrester’s cloud computing taxonomy, which defines 12 different market segments and business models. The self-service consumption of highly standardized services via a pay-per-use payment model basically implies a pure opex business model; business users have no capex investments in the cloud. However, if corporate CIO organizations perform this “capex to opex” transformation themselves, we can talk with a clear conscience about a private cloud. If a company expects an external provider to transform the capex investment into pay-per-use opex, we’re talking about a public cloud or a virtual private cloud. The latter is most attractive to users who want to know where their data is and have greater privacy requirements than a highly shared public cloud allows.
Here are some highlights from the report for four of the twelve cloud computing segments we sized:
Forrester clients can read the full report, “Sizing The Cloud”. Thanks to the many Forrester analysts working with me on the report, including Holger Kisker, Pascal Matzke, Andy Bartels, James Staten, Frank Gillett, and Ken Vollmer.
Let me know if this helps you to predict your business opportunity in the Cloud.
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