iPad 2 Will Claim 80% Of US Tablet Market Share In 2011

Apple understands desire. The first thing consumers will notice about the iPad 2 is how it feels: Lighter (by a crucial 2 ounces) and thinner (at 8.8mm, thinner than an iPhone 4). Color triggers emotion: iPad 2 comes in not just black but white, with multiple colors in the thin "smart covers" that snap into place with "auto-aligning magnets" and clean those unsightly fingerprints off your screen. The rest is important but more cerebral. Dual-core processor, HDMI video-out converter for the 30-pin connector, etc. Emotion enters back into the equation when consumers see what they can do with the device--see their loved ones through FaceTime, touch-edit videos in iMovie, improvise on touch-instruments in GarageBand and actually sound good doing it.

In a post-PC world, consumers have a more intimate relationship with their devices. They use them on the couch and in bed and not just at their desk. They show their devices to other people (40% of iPad owners in Forrester's surveys report regularly sharing their iPad with other people). Fostering that desire is a smart way to differentiate your piece of glass from other pieces of glass that perform essentially the same functions.

Beyond the device itself, Apple's product strategy cultivates an emotional connection with consumers through:

  • Content. Apple's unrivaled app ecosystem adds value to its product. With 65,000 apps, the iPad has the edge in custom-built content. For consumers shopping for tablets, the number of apps isn’t as important as the price of the device, battery life, and 3G service flexibility, but it does matter: 23% of consumers considering buying a tablet rank “number of available apps” in their top-three important features, according to a Forrester survey fielded in January 2011.
  • Channel. The Apple Store is a demo lab as well as a channel. Competing tablets will all rely on Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, and carriers to sell their devices among many other products. At the Apple Store, the iPad is featured front and center, and consumers can try it out and have knowledgeable sales staff teach them how to use it and discover new content.
  • Service. Apple’s investment in its retail stores pays off. In a Forrester study conducted last year, we found that consumers are willing to pay more for Apple products because of their perception that the service (real humans accessible in any Apple Store) is built into the price of the device. In-store service boosts Apple’s pricing power.

The competing products we’ve seen announced so far from Motorola, RIM, HP, and others, while impressive, have fatally flawed price and distribution strategies, which leads us to our call that of the 24.1 million tablets that will sell to US consumers in 2011, at least 20 million will be iPads.

BUT, the tablet wars are far from over. We have yet to see a play from potential disruptors like Amazon, who could enter the tablet market at a lower price point, or Sony and Microsoft, who could offer radically differentiated value propositions. Things could get rowdy. But for now, Apple still defines the tablet market, with a product consumers will desire at a price that’s hard to beat.

Comments

I saw you quoted in the LA

I saw you quoted in the LA Times on iPad 2 Unveiling article and I felt compelled to respond. You use the same phrase here: post-PC world. What reality do you live in where the PC is dead? Tablets have not by any measure overtaken PC sales or use. Tablets are good as a secondary computer, a laptop killer in some cases, but I don't foresee them ever taking over in most business uses or consumer gaming.

Post-PC world is a meaningless buzzword, you know it isn't true, and so does your audience.

Post PC world is reality

PC is no longer the growth driver. Margins have contracted, Dell and HP are retreating to enterprise- the graveyard of PC-makers. Ask Gateway and Compaq.
This is the post PC-world and wishing for inertia won't change a thing.

Congrats to the winners:
1) IBM for exiting the market. Foresight is rare and the stock got punished. Today they're posting their best results ever.
2) Apple for creating alternative revenue streams.

Post-PC? Fallen under the Apple cult?

Sarah, I note your phrase is "In a post-PC world". This is the exact same phraseology used by Jobs at the Live event. But, hold on, isn't your organisation expected to offer considered, impartial assessments of technology? Are you not just repeating the latest Apple PR buzz-phrase?

A "New Kind of PC"

It seems to me that people are getting too caught up with the nomenclature of this new type of device. PC, post PC, tablet, mobile computer - but I think Sarah got it right in her May 2010 article "Apple's iPad Is A New Kind Of PC." While, yes, the iPad is literally a "personal computer," it has developed a whole new category of computing device. It has taken the best of the iPhone experience (intuitive touch interface, robust development ecosystem) and the essentials of the PC (web browsing, content creation) and has wrapped them together into a new form factor that people are willing to interact with and share with each other.

Just because the iPad is being touted as a post PC device, it doesn't necessarily mean that consumers are going to stop using PCs altogether. Its introduction has simply given consumers another alternative to both PCs and mobile devices - one that can be easily understood and used by people of all ages and backgrounds.

iPad2 vs $50 used Thinkpad X31 ( upgraded 2gb ram, 320gb disk)

I think it amusing how there is such fawning on overpriced underfunctional devices ( including the iPad family ).

On eBay older Thinkpads are inexpensive, and ANY T or X series Thinkpad blows away any iPad in most every metric that matters, EVEN in FREE programs ( new age word called "apps") available.

Not as clean or dumbed down an interface, BUT NO NEED TO BUY a $100 hack of a physical KEYBOAD "upgrade" to a $700 device either. It is funny to see iPad users in Starbucks with the iPad tilted near vertical ( ie laptop screen reading angle ) to read on their Starbucks table, and clumsy typing attempted at same time.

Funny to watch(not well engineered human factors / ergonomics with a vertical screen touch keyboard), at least HP is comprehending the limits to touchscreen UIs in their new tiltable stand All In One touchscreen desktop PC, and it does still have some usability compromises.

After I fully tricked out my x31 thinkpad ( oh the "pad" moniker oops ) LAPTOP, with 2gb RAM and a fast modern low power 320gb hard drive, just with old win XP, the result is a superb all around 12 inch screen "personal laptop".

A $35 9 cell battery on ebay runs for 6-9 hours, the options and addons available are profuse and cheap.

The free software for WINDOWS ( and Linux), via sourceforge and others - GNU licenses largely, is far better and larger selection of REAL apps ( real PROGRAMs ) than any of the trivial spyware infested iPad or Android APPS everyone seems to fawn over, as if most of the crippled "iPad" or "Android" apps were new full function amazing .... ( not the junk most mobile apps really are )

Most mobile apps are trojans for (personal profile ) Advertising Business REVENUE, and risk privacy of your personal information on the mobile devices, iPads, iPhones Android etc.... in non trivial loss of privacy on more than a few occasions. In the PC world, that is called SPYWARE, but in the mobile world that is both the norm, and no security / antivirus / antispyware programs are easily found to proect YOUR PRIVATE INFORMATION.

So you can use your phone for camera based price comparisons WhoopDeeDoo ! Or find where your friends are on a mobile real time map ( Ditto .... or maybe not just your friends know you ARE NOT AT HOME ... not such a great thing ... ) or have a GPS navigation program for use in your car where otherwise a cheaper GPS dedicated device is far better.

For any real work all the mobile devices are largely crippled and mostly compromise in function or features.

The only form factor that is appealing but still incomplete in function and with as yet only still weakened computational ability - is the design concept of a dockable Mobile Device to a laptop format keyboard screen. ( Moto Atrix, but still overpriced and still too little functionality for full use - crippled by immature weakened Mobile OSs - even Android )

The dockable format is only useful if the OS running the mobile device is say mainstream OS capable - not crippled mobile only widgets.

For now till something either OSX or full Windows comes in derivatives that both do the mobile touchscreen pocketable device operation without compromise in mobile (g)UI AND the desktop OS replacement in (mostly ) full capability - VIA an ATRIX style dock, I refuse to buy into the "industy hype". Till a true all function mobile / desk capable is made, then why bother compromising with crippled functionality of a partial computer, and still need ( presently ) a REAL PC.

Too many junk devices, overpriced.

In todays computer literate society, crippled devices quickly are destined for rapid obsolescence and ain't worth the high prices.

I ended up buying near 20 THinkpad x31 shells ( no HDD limited memory, but functioning ) for average shipped price of $45-50, and these can be used all over the place - esp in my technical R&D work, and are perfectly adequate.

Plus in laptops, for true ease of portability AND ease of READING the screen without tiring, 12 inch square form factor is best tradeoff of egonomics/ portability versus readability, bar none.

When you observe a user of a common cheap NETBOOK laptop squinting at the tiny short screens, pity quickly emerges. No such pain of squinting on a 12 inch square aspect ratio screen is ever observed or experienced.

For now my fully tricked out upgraded x31 THinkpad has largely replaced my desktop and yet is very convenient to carry, and 6-8 hours of battery life on a USER SWAPPABLE REPLACABLE $35 9-cell battery.

x31 is best of all worlds, and almost a universal computing product.

I like my phone separate from my computing - too much private work than needs to remain away from intrusive advertisers. And far cheaper than iPad/ iPhone expensive but crippled functionality.

I wish it were a new Post PC device

I got my iPad as a gift. I am not an iTunes person. The iPad is basically tied to the PC due to the iTunes proxying as the only interface and digital rights management system for transfering everything to and from the iPad.

The iPad does not expose a useable file system. This makes it very difficult to use as a PDF reader etc. so that I could use it for work.

Overall I am not happy with my iPad and I hope the competition comes up with something I can really use.

Something that expensive and fragile should not have been made so slippery. I was always worried I would drop it until I ponied up more money for a relatively bulky "case".

User experience is key

Sarah, I think you hit it right on the head. Apple has never targeted users like James, who needs and exposed file system, or Andrew, who's scouring eBay to trick out an old ThinkPad (then whistling past the graveyard trying to trivialize the latest generation of mobile devises). It designs products that my mom and my six-year-old daughter can use. And the emotional connection you describe is not something easily grasped by someone who thinks a electronic device should come with a 2-in-thick user manual. It's no small wonder that according to PC World -- not exactly the most Apple-friendly pub -- a recent study found that Apple’s mobile browser was the fastest and BlackBerry’s was the slowest. (http://bit.ly/eNGwMB) Apple is all about the user experience, which is why it maintains its closed system and heavy-handed development restrictions that so many find irksome. But that's also why its products sell like crazy, it can command premium pricing and its profit margins are the highest in the consumer electronics industry.

I also agree with Griffin that the "post PC" era doesn't mean that people stop using their PCs. (You couldn't drag me away from my desktop with the 24-inch monitor I need for my serious work.) It just means we've entered an era in which the PC isn't the only device we use to create and consume digital content.

--Rob
http://bit.ly/garretsonr

Maybe it's Post-PC for...

... home use? Would that be a better way to approach what the iPad is?

As stated by others, I doubt we will see it replacing desktop systems in many enterprises, even in the coming decade. Many are going away from 'fully deployed desktop PCs' loaded with applications and huge hard drives, instead opting for a machine with computing and video power on the desktop and apps and storage elsewhere in the organization (servers, cloud (gulp), other) but not for mobile devices.

But at home? Users that have some form of smartphone and a desktop computer may elect to buy into the mobile device (iPad or other) market instead of a notebook/laptop for mobile use or when considering upgrading, if a mobile fits their need and use patterns.. but if it's a family with a central use computer and multiple people? I don't see them standing up and saying "iPads for EVERYONE!" and buying multiples for Mom, Dad, and Little Sally and Johnny, too. =)

The price point has to drop... it's a niche device for a niche market. I have an older MacBookPro and an iPhone4... i don't perceive an iPad filling any unmet gaps for me. I don't think I'm alone.

Hi Sarah, I'm sorry but I

Hi Sarah, I'm sorry but I think you are a bit premature in the death of the PC. While the iPod looks great we still have to find a use for them. It is still a status symbol and not a truly useful tool in real life. But give tablets time and they’ll get there.

on Giving Tablets Time ...

they will merely morph into laptops of a more modern software ecosystem. When you being to see an Android LAPTOP ( it wll happen is my guess within a year) based on Andoind 3 or later, possessing a physical hinged keyboard ( like a laptop ) then you know the pure tablet will become less important that claimed.

My typing away at my 12 inch screen thinkapd x31 which except for location based services and lacking any multitouch nor touchscrren but poassessing most of the functions of a tablet, all for $150 fully tricked out tells me alot.

More over a recent article talking about the $200-$250 Color NOOK reader's easy conversion to a full Android tablet and indicating that is possibly the real valuation of ANY tablet, supports this thesis - tablets are presently hugely overpriced, they merely are mostly UI user interface improvements over laptops in smaller than typical packages, and MISSING a physical keyboard for certain for fuller use of the hardware in real work ( despite possessing much of the computational power needed for credible work )

Whistling past the graveyard?

Again, I think, with all due respect, that Andrew misses the point comparing the cost of his Thinkpad implicitly to an iPad and longing for an Android laptop. Both the emotional connection that Sarah pointed out and the developer excitement at events like Mobile Monday (http://bit.ly/dTqw7x) are created by the usability and utility of the touchscreen interface and the more conveniently mobile form factor of iPhone/iPad type devices. I had an unfortunate, day-long layover in an airport this weekend, and as I lugged my laptop around with me, I really envied all the iPads I saw flipped out of purses or backpacks next to me. I found myself with an emotional connection with a device I don't even have!

--Rob
http://bit.ly/garretsonr

I do not whistle. For

I do not whistle.

For example the iPad 2 bill of materials is apparently $350 so it will not be cost effectively priced for quite some time.

And the iPad2 is still near equal in CPU performance to a single core 1.4Ghz Intel Centrino CPU of the x31.

Re user interface, if you have a real keyboard included (x31), the TrackPoint of IBM is actually best user ergonimics, since your hands remain ON the keyboard for fastest reponse.

Size ( does matter ) and most laptops except those of IBM X series are too large ( I agree with most of what you said )

My x31 is about the size of a 3 ring binder even with the 7hour battery sticking out ( ie not hugely bigger in XY than an iPad, and yes thicker, and slightly heavier )

Most laptops today seem to be designed for DVD widescreen viewing ( and then I have to carry that ? ) verus practicality of an X31.

Granted this x31 stuff is not going to catch an Icon loving public, and yes when you ave no real keyboard like on an iPad, a touchscreen UI is essential.

But a TRACKPOINT when you have a useful real KEYBOARD is actually more functional and more useful than a touchscreen for most uses? And better than a mouse since your hands stay on the keyboard, and better than a touchpad since stray cursor movements are banished ( ie hit the touchpad with your palm and watch your cursor go wacko )

I surely "do miss" the $650 emotional connection? to the iPad wilst having a 350gb capacity hard drive, only slightly slower than a solid state disk + 2GB ram and a real 12 inch screen.....in a $200 setup nearly just as portable as an iPad yet capable of much an iPad can do and far far more.

cheers from the cradle of sensibililty

Andrew i do not agree with

Andrew i do not agree with you cannot compare a laptop and i-pad they both stand on there places.......
i-pad users can visit http://ipad3wishlist.com/ here they can find wishes and rumors about i-pad 3

Own the iPad and pc/laptop use is down

Not sure how many people actually own an iPad or any other tablet for that matter when they comment here.

Personal experience:
Desktop and laptop use went down somewhat with smart phones (iPhone for wife, Samsung android for me, later replaced by iPhone)

Since we purchased the iPad2 a couple of weeks ago, we practically do not touch either the laptop or the desktop at home any more, my wife also uses the iPad at work (univerity teacher/researcher) along her desktop there. She basically no longer uses the laptop or netbook except on a very few occasions (maybe one hour a week).

Same is true for me, since the iPad2 arrived i use the desktop mainly as a media server and ripping my dvd/bdr collection to the hard disk. Rarely anything else. When the iPad2 is home, i practically never use either the netbook or the laptop.

Just ordered a second one for myself (much hesitation and research done on competing products, decision mainly for stable OS and app availability). Expect to move most of my daily computing needs to iPad...

Talking apps, key for me were Zinio on iPad (performs better than Zinio on a 2k desktop), dedicated apps from the newspapers we read (very similar to reading the paper version), games for our 2 year old (yes he can actually use the ios devices by himself), being able to play 720p mkv and avi (AVPlayerHD app required) on plazma via hdmi, as well as a couple of productivity apps.

So will tablets replace computers ? Impossible for now for power users, for the average user who does email and web surfing ? I would say yes, for those inbetween ? Probably not completely.

By the way my sister is in the film industry (NY) and her only computer has been an iPad (first version) for almost a year now, she can not live without her iPad as it is basically where she has all details and notes about the scenes they will shoot. She works on the technical side of filming and says she could no longer live without the tablet...

I also know quite a few people in other industries who have moved to tablets for work, doctors, consultants and sales people...

Post PC could be reality, dont forget the tablets are expected to outsell pcs in a few years and we are only now learning how to use them productively.

Written on the iPad 2...

thanks for shearing the

thanks for shearing the information I like the all view and also tips . So many readers can add this knowledge in their reasreach work.