Five Ways To Invest In The Future Of Online Retail

Forrester’s retail forecasts chart how the changing nature of consumer behavior will have an impact on online and offline retail sales over the next five years. During a recent webinar, Forrester detailed five key trends that the forecasts have revealed:

  • Worldwide online retail sales are growing and varied. Asia Pacific is the world’s largest online market; it’s more than twice the size of North America. But online retail in India and China is very different. When considering your online investments, you must take into account not just retail market size but also supply (like organized retail), consumer demand, and infrastructure maturity.
  • Online buyers are spending more and in more categories. In mature markets like the US, online growth is coming from existing buyers spending more online. The typical online buyer has doubled the number of categories from which they buy online over the past five years.
  • Web-influenced sales are greater than online sales. In Western Europe, the Web will influence 45% of offline sales by 2020. Although 93% of retail sales in Western Europe were offline in 2014, an online presence is critical to retailer success — as web-influenced sales were more than three times larger than online sales.
Read more

45% Of Offline Retail Sales Will Be Web-Influenced By 2020

Although 91% of retail sales in EU7 were offline in 2014, online presence is critical to retailer success, as nongrocery web-influenced sales were three times larger than online sales. EU7 includes the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Sweden. A soon-to-be-published report, Forrester Research Web-Influenced Retail Sales Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (EU-7), shows why the majority of nongrocery offline retail sales will be influenced by the Internet as early as 2017; why this influence is dependent on country, category, and consumer age and gender; and why a consistent consumer experience across all multichannel touchpoints is critical for retailer success.

How consumers are influenced by the Web depends on many factors:

  • Online behaviors. Price and consumer ratings are the most important online factors influencing retail sales. Online behaviors are more embedded than ever into the consumer purchase journey, as online buyers and online spend per buyer continue to grow in Western Europe. Offline populations continue to decrease, although at different rates across Europe: almost a third of Italians and a fifth of Spaniards are still not online.
Read more

Western European Consumers Spent €26 Billion In Online Cross-Border Trade In 2014

Western Europe is one of the largest online markets for cross-border trade: In 2014, Western consumers spent €26 billion on cross-border trade, representing 17% of eCommerce sales in Western Europe. Our recently published Forrester Research Online Cross-Border Retail Forecast, 2013 To 2018 (Western Europe) shows that cross-border trade depends on sales flowing into a country from domestic cross-border purchases and sales flowing out of a country from nondomestic shoppers. Cross-border trade gives retailers an opportunity to expand outside of their domestic markets with minimum upfront investment. To succeed, retailers must understand the cross-border shopper and how to compete internationally.

Online cross-border shoppers:

  • Are looking for the best price. Price-sensitive online shoppers drive cross-border sales. The price of domestic goods in countries like Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Ireland make the consumer more likely to shop cross-border to find a bargain.
  • Are looking for the best choice. The consumer choice offered by large online retail markets in countries like the UK, France, and Germany make the consumer less likely to shop outside of their domestic market.
  • Spend more online, have higher incomes, and are younger than domestic shoppers. Retailers need to know the types of categories bought online to better target the cross-border shopper.
Read more

Online Display Ads Will Account For More Than 12% Of Advertising Spend In Western Europe By 2019


With 44% of all retail sales in Europe set to be offline sales that are influenced by the Web in 2018, it's not surprising that online display advertising spend in Europe will grow more than three times faster than total advertising spend over the next five years. Forrester's Online Display Advertising Forecast  shows that online display advertising will continue to cannibalize advertising spend via other channels.

Firms are increasingly using video and rich media to engage, entertain, and attract the attention of online users and to enrich their brand storytelling. The growth of mobile device adoption and usage is also changing the way that users consume content:

1.Video: Google recently stated that video had entered a fourth dimension, incorporating sight, sound, motion, and interactivity to win the hearts and minds of video viewers. With more than 100 hours of video uploaded to YouTube every minute, Google has created YouTubeNation to curate video content and grow video audiences, especially among those ages 18 to 30.

Read more

29% Of Online Ad Spend In The US Will Be From Mobile By 2018

Mobile ad spending is finally taking off. The Forrester Research Mobile Advertising Forecast, 2013 To 2018 (US) predicts that mobile ad spend (smartphones plus tablets) will represent more than 29% of the total online ad spend in the US by 2018. The forecast looks at mobile device ownership in the US, trends in device usage, and mobile advertising supply-side data to fix the current and future market size for display, search, and social spending.

The drivers behind this take-off of mobile ad spending are:

  • Increased device ownership, particularly of tablets. Smartphone installed base growth in 2012 was more than 35%, while tablet installed base growth exceeded 120%. By 2016, tablet sales will overtake the sales of desktop and laptop PCs.
  • The intensity of online tablet use. Despite tablets representing less than 30% of the mobile device market in the US, they represent more than 40% of total mobile page views. In addition, the majority of tablet users watch video on their tablet, compared with about a third of smartphone users.
Read more

Europe Will Be The Largest eBook Market By 2017, Worth $19 Billion

eReaders are set to have one of the shortest growth life cycles in device history. Between 2009-2011 the average annual sales of dedicated eReading devices in the US grew by more than 100%. In 2012, US dedicated eReader sales growth will be negative. The decline of the eReader is driven by the availability and affordability of tablets, with global tablet sales in 2012 set to reach more than 120 million.

The Forrester Research eReader And eBook Adoption Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (Global) analyzes eBook adoption drivers across more than 50 countries. Heavy readers like eBooks. In the US, eBook readers read an average of 24 books per year compared with just 15 books for non-eBook readers. In addition, eBook readers are becoming more device-agnostic, with similar eBook reading levels observed across tablets and dedicated eReading devices.

We used the following drivers to calculate our forecast for eBooks and eReaders

Read more

34% Of Tablet Owners Worldwide Will Be In Asia Pacific By 2017

Since the launch of the iPad in 2010, more than 200 million tablets have been sold worldwide. Compare this with the laptop, which went from 2 million unit sales in 1990 to just 29 million 10 years later. Tablets have already started to cannibalize laptop and eReader device sales, as they offer distinct advantages over the laptop — they’re lightweight, have a long battery life, and provide convenience via a touchscreen and their “always on” mode.

Our recently published Forrester Research World Tablet Adoption Forecast, 2012 To 2017 analyzes the drivers of tablet adoption across more than 50 countries. These include:

·         A growing online population: By 2017, the majority of the worldwide online population will reside in Asia Pacific; this region will contain 34% of tablet owners. Europe and North America will follow.

·         The fall of tablet prices: For example, the Turkish government plans to distribute domestically produced tablets to 15 million students for free.

Read more

Ninety Percent Of The Online Population Will Regularly Watch Online Video By 2017

The music industry in Europe has had a traumatic time, losing more than 31% of its revenue in the past five years to piracy. Given the increasing digitalization of content in the music, video, gaming, and newspaper industries, our recently published Forrester Research Online Paid Content Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (EU-7) maps content’s evolution from an audience, payer, and revenue perspective for each of these categories and for each of seven European countries. Here are some high-level results for the four categories:

Music.With more than 35% of music revenues in Europe coming from digital, spending on physical music will soon be overtaken by its digital counterpart. Although digital music use in Europe still lags behind the US (where digital revenues exceeded physical revenues for the first time in 2012), Forrester found that more than 50% of online Europeans already listen to online music regularly.

Video.Video is the fastest-growing digital content category; we forecast that more than 90% of the online population will regularly watch online video by 2017. Online video audience penetrations will rise significantly as video on demand, pay per view, and catchup TV become mainstream. And with pay-TV penetrations in the EU-7 nations considerably lower than in the US, there’s more scope for paid online video to grow.

Read more

Mobile Commerce Will Be Worth 19 Billion Euros Within The EU-7 By 2017

Mobile commerce is taking off in Europe. Retail and travel spend via a mobile phone increased by 70% in 2011. Impulse-buying categories that require little intensive research — such as books, computer software and video games, music, videos and DVDs, and event tickets — are driving a large part of these mobile retail sales. Understanding mobile buying behaviors, the evolution of mobile buyers, and relative mobile spend across Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden are the focus of the Forrester Research Mobile Commerce Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (EU-7), >, and report which has just been published.

The forecast combines insights from the Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To 2016 (Western Europe) with an understanding of smartphone adoption rates and how online buyer sophistication differs from mobile buyer sophistication for each EU-7 country. Smartphone owners are more predisposed to become mobile retail buyers if they have already bought online or if they have already bought mobile apps and digital content. By 2017, mobile retail, travel, and daily deal spend in the EU-7 will rise to €19.2 billion, which will represent 6.8% of online spend. Mobile’s share of total travel spend will be much higher than that seen in retail, as more than 35% of travel bookings for leisure and unmanaged business travel were made online in the EU-7 in 2011.

Read more

SMS Usage Remains Strong In The US: 6 Billion SMS Messages Are Sent Each Day

In two recently published forecasts — the Forrester Research Mobile Media Application Spending Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (EU-7) and the Forrester Research Mobile Media Application Spending Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US) — we looked at mobile and tablet content usage for games, music, video, and messaging across the US and seven countries in Western Europe. As content availability becomes more synonymous with handset choice, the forecast helps us understand the proportion of mobile commerce that we can attribute to those who use and pay for digital content.

Even with the increased use of instant messaging, SMS remains the workhorse of mobile — with a 14% increase in the number of SMS messages sent in 2011 compared with 2010. More than 2 trillion SMS messages were sent in the US in 2011, which equates to more than 6 billion SMS messages sent per day. Text messaging users send or receive an average of 35 messages per day. Although by 2017 SMS will dominate mobile content spend less than it does today, it will still remain significant.

Read more