2011 Mobile Trends

Thomas Husson

In a recent post, my colleague Julie Ask and I examined what happened in the mobile space in 2010. In a new report, we are highlighting what we expect the key trends to be in 2011. While we believe that most of the trends identified last year will continue throughout the year ahead, here’s a snapshot of more specific trends that will shape the market in 2011.

•           The mobile/social/local combo will explode in usage but generate little revenue.

•           2011 will be the year of the “dumb” smartphone user. Thanks to handset subsidies, smartphones will be available to the masses. Expect new smartphone users to be less engaged and active than the first cohorts of Android and iPhone early adopters. The good news is that thanks to customer education and the convenience that these devices offer, even “dumb” smartphone users will consume more mobile media than ever before and will have incremental usage of mobile data!

•           The mobile fragmentation problem will continue in 2011. Prioritizing mobile developments will still be a challenge, and cross-platform development has not yet been achieved successfully.

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2010: A Review Of Another Year In Mobile

Thomas Husson

A year ago, I tried to highlight what the key trends for 2010 would be. I wrote: “I’m not going to say that 2010 will be ‘the year of mobile’ or ‘the year of mobile marketing.’ I think 2010 is more likely to be the ‘year that every firm needs a mobile strategy.’ Mobile is simply too disruptive to merely have a year. After all, who remembers the year of the TV or the year of the Internet? Instead, I think 2010 will be a key year in mobile's transition to center stage in the digital marketplace. A new mobile decade is opening up, and now is the time to start your journey. In the past 10 years, mobile phones have changed the way we communicate and live. In the next 10 years, they will change the way we do business.”

Interestingly, that report — “2010 Mobile Trends” — was one of the most-read at Forrester, highlighting that a growing number of companies are starting to take mobile seriously.

So many things happened in 2010 that it is difficult to sum up the year. However, my colleague Julie Ask and I took a step back to offer our high-level take:

•           New entrants are disrupting existing mobile ecosystems. Non-telco companies, such as Apple, Facebook, and Google, increased in importance as key players in the mobile ecosystem. Together, Apple and Google are closing in on controlling about half of the smartphone market and mobile advertising share in the US and have obtained a lot of traction in Europe and other regions of the world.

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2011 Mobile Marketing Predictions

Melissa Parrish

In the last few months, we've talked a lot about how quickly the mobile marketing space is moving — and with nearly 75% of marketers telling us they're implementing or planning to implement mobile campaigns in the next year, we're not expecting the pace to slow any time soon.

Since we've just switched over to our 2011 calendars, now is the time to make some predictions about what that mobile marketing growth is really going to look like. In our new report, we take a look at:

  • The potential for marketer-branded application fatigue. (Warning: Those allergic to puns may want to tread lightly on this section.)
  • Emphasis on interactive fundamentals — like display and search — for the mobile marketer.
  • The carving out of mobile-specific expertise both within and independent of interactive teams.
  • Innovation on the marketing potential of location-based services.

Forrester clients can read the full report here. Whether you're a client or not, I invite you to share your own mobile marketing predictions in the comments below. What do you think will happen in the world of mobile marketing this year?

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Mobile Augmented Reality: Beyond The Hype, A Glimpse Into The Mobile Future

Thomas Husson

Is mobile AR overhyped? Yes.

First of all, the technology is not new at all. It is simply moving from PC and industrial environments to a marketing and mobile context.

Let’s face the reality: for now it is primarily used by brands willing to launch innovative mobile services and in search of a “wow” effect.

Few consumers are currently holding up their smartphone to interact with their environment as a totally natural gesture. Whether you look at the installed base of Junaio or Layar’s mobile users, this is a niche market.

From a pure technology standpoint, AR requires object recognition and computerization on the mobile device itself, as well as 3D rendering to superimpose images on the real world. This is a technology that only a few companies such as Metaio and Total Immersion really master.

The information displayed must be ultra-accurate and delivered in a perfectly seamless way. This is still far from being the norm for many of the so-called mobile AR applications.

To put it succinctly, mobile AR is not yet delivering its promise. There are certainly more significant short-term opportunities to tap into with Web-based and kiosk-based AR solutions, in particular related to eCommerce.

However, Forrester believes consumer product strategists should not dismiss the technology. On the contrary, it is likely to trigger disruption in the years to come and to open up new opportunities.

Is this a key technology moving forward? Yes.

Think of mobile AR as: “A way to click on the real world with your phone the way computer users navigate their desktop with a mouse. Just point in the direction you want to search, or at a place you want more info about,” which is how GeoVector summed it up in promoting its World Surfer application.

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More Mobile Marketing Research Coming In 2011

Melissa Parrish

If you follow the research we produce here on Forrester’s Interactive Marketing team, you’ve likely noticed that we’ve been writing a lot more about mobile as of late. With more marketers planning on piloting mobile programs next year, and with consumer mobile Internet adoption on the rise, you can expect to see even more research into the topic in 2011. 

Here's what I'm currently planning on researching and writing about:

  • Mobile strategy. We'll look at what a comprehensive mobile strategy is, how to move from experimentation to true strategizing, and the essential elements that make mobile strategies successful.
  • Mobile measurement. We'll investigate the metrics marketers currently use to measure their mobile campaigns, emerging standards, and success benchmarks.
  • Vendors. There are so many vendors developing expertise in the mobile marketing space, falling into different categories, specializing in different technologies, and offering different kinds of engagement. We'll help you make sense of your options.
  • Operations. While every company is unique in the way it organizes and budgets for channels and programs, we'll be looking for common ground in the mobile space with a view toward helping you evlolve your IM efforts to support this growing channel.
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What Is A Boomerang?

Luca Paderni

 

No, I’m not Australian . . . at Forrester, "boomerangs" are analysts that, after leaving the research team for a stint in the "real world,"  have decided to re-join. Clients and fellow analysts value the experience we "boomerangs" have built as marketers and the pragmatic outlook we always bring to the table. As for me, I am a bit of an anomaly, as this is the second time that I am back at Forrester. My 20-year career as a marketer can be roughly split in two phases: first, the CPG marketing and strategy roles for brands like Ferrero, L’Oreal, and Johnson&Johnson; then, my digital marketing phase, which recently closed with more than four years at Google.

I would like to think that I am now entering a new phase by helping organizations understand the key role that marketing can play in shaping the way they navigate markets and customers that are constantly affected by the adoption of new technologies. Quite an ambitious scope, so to make sure that I stay relevant and deliver actionable research and advice, I have decided to launch this blog to start a dialogue with CMOs and Marketing Leaders on what’s keeping them up at night and how we can help them.

Coverage areas and topics I’m interested in.

As I type this, I am in the process of writing research on the following areas (please note that links are to reports that are only accessible by clients):

  • I’ll primarily focus on helping marketers redefine brand loyalty and the role that it plays in the Customer Life Cycle.
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Just Published: The Forrester Wave™ For Community Platforms

Melissa Parrish

The community platforms market has been heating up for the past few years.  Today, there are more than 100 vendors in the space, and we evaluated the top 5 in our most recent Wave: Lithium, Jive, KickApps, Telligent, and Mzinga.*

When we started this research, we spoke with many interactive marketers to understand what they look for as they assess community platform vendors.  Through these conversations, we determined that some of the criteria has evolved since the last time we looked at the space, and so our evaluation has placed a greater emphasis on: 

  • The vendors’ specific focus on interactive marketers as key customers for their business.
  • Strategic and technical services offered by the vendors.
  • Intuitiveness of the tools and administrative console for less- or non-technical users.
  • Ease of deployment for marketers who want to minimize their dependence on IT resources and timelines.
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How Mature Is Your Mobile Strategy?

Thomas Husson

How Mature Is Your Mobile Strategy?

To help consumer product strategists and executives answer this question and benchmark their mobile consumer strategy, Forrester fielded a Global Mobile Maturity Online Survey in Q3 2010. We interviewed more than 200 executives in charge of their company’s mobile strategy across the globe (40% in the US, 40% in Europe, and 20% in the rest of the world).

First, only a third of respondents said that they had had a mobile strategy in place for more than a year. Companies in this situation are from many different industries, but online players, media companies, and financial institutions are often more advanced. Forty-five percent of respondents are just waking up to the mobile opportunity and thinking about integrating mobile into their overall corporate strategy — just like they did a decade ago with the emerging online channel.

For the majority of respondents, mobile is mainly seen as a way to increase customer engagement, satisfaction, and loyalty. Mobile is less useful as a way to acquire customers and generate direct revenues — just 2% expect to generate more than $10 million in mobile revenues for 2010. While companies are assigning clear objectives to the emerging mobile platform, 23% of respondents still consider their primary objective with mobile to be to “test and learn.”

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Already Marketing On Social Networks? Then You're Already Marketing On Mobile

Melissa Parrish

One of the reasons marketing on social networks is so popular is that the consumers a brand can reach are largely active, vocal and willing to connect -- with each other and with their favorite brands.  But did you know that 22% of US online adults with cellphones access their social networks via mobile at least monthly?   In my new report, I explore research that shows that these particular social networking users are even more active, vocal and willing to connect than the general population.

Consumers who access social networks via mobile over-index on every rung of the Social Technographics® ladder, except for inactives.  More interesting?  Mobile social users have specific, focused intentions that differ from desktop mobile users:  They're interested in immediacy, entertainment, and in knowing which of their friends and favorite places are physically nearby. 

Keeping in mind the specific interests of these extremely socially active consumers, marketers can optimize their already-existing social campaigns to make them even more successful for mobile users.  For recommendations on how to optimize your own campaigns with little additional effort or cost, check out the full report.

Have you already optimized your social messaging for mobile users?  If so, I'd love to hear what you changed and what the results were.  Head to the comments section to share your case studies!

Are Nokia's Ovi Services Gaining Momentum?

Thomas Husson

Because of poor execution in 2009, the industry consensus — particularly in the US, where Nokia has a small footprint — was that Nokia was not in a position to catch up with the Apple App Store or Android Market. Reports of the Ovi Store’s death were greatly exaggerated: Nokia simply cannot afford to fail. On the contrary, it is now catching up, particularly in emerging countries, where Nokia clearly differentiates thanks to its unique local presence and relationships with operators (mobile billing is currently supported in around 30 countries).

Nokia just issued a press release this morning insisting that Ovi Store downloads are now reaching 2.3 million per day for a total installed base of 140 million active users. Bear in mind that a user is considered active on a six-month period and that this figure includes multiple Ovi experiences, including the 17 million Ovi mail and chat users as well as users of Ovi Maps, Ovi music, and Ovi life tools.

That's an increase versus last May (1.7 million) and versus the data that was announced at Nokia World two weeks ago (2 million). More interestingly, 200,000 people are signing up daily to Ovi. That's a significant trend.

I'll stick to my initial thoughts about Nokia's transformation journey: the challenge is still to offer a fully integrated Ovi brand experience.

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