When revisiting our 2011 mobile trends, Julie Askand I concluded that many, if not all, of them were still evolving and relevant. We have placed the main new trends for 2012 into four categories: business, ecosystem, consumer expectations, and technology.
Mobile Is A Key Business Strategy Enabler
Product strategists must work with other roles in the organization to:
Develop a scalable approach to delivering mobile services. Organizations will need a strategic approach to building and spreading institutional knowledge as well as governance for the development of mobile services.
Craft a mobile strategy that extends beyond phones. The emergence of tablets in particular will require a different approach than smartphones.
Differentiate on the delivery rather than the content of mobile services. In 2012, “how” mobile services are delivered will differentiate them — not what they offer.
Media reports suggest that Facebook will file for an IPO this week that could value the company at $100 billion — and leave the company sitting on $10 billion in cash. I’m not a financial analyst, so I’ll leave it to Wall Street to discuss and debate that valuation. But the fact is this newfound wealth could not only allow Facebook to solve its biggest business challenges, it could also help Facebook finally achieve its longstanding goal to change how marketing works. So how should Facebook use its IPO windfall?
I'm really pleased to announce that I've moved back to New York City. I actually started my interactive marketing career in New York almost 15 years ago, and I started my analyst career in New York nine years ago. But for the past seven years I've been plying my trade elsewhere: in London, Berlin, Vancouver, and then back in London again. Now, after half a career spent abroad, it's great to be back home.
What does this mean for my research coverage? Not much, really. I've still got the same job on the same team, and I'll still be focused on the same topics I've covered for years:
Yes, really. If you make decisions about your company's interactive marketing programs in China, I want to give you some data you probably don't have access to: Survey data on how your peers and competitors are using interactive tools in the country.
You see, I'm working on a handful of reports covering the interactive marketing landscape in China — based on a long trip to the country in August and September of this year, as well as dozens of interviews with marketers and agencies in the country — and now it's time for my final piece of data collection: a marketer survey. So if you set or influence interactive marketing plans in China, and you've got 5 or 7 minutes to spare, I hope you'll take our short online survey. Just leave your email address at the end of the survey, and we'll get you an aggregated copy of the survey results.
And if you don't know about intearctive marketing in China, just sit tight: We'll be publishing some very interesting highlights from that survey right here on the Forrester blogs shortly.
A year ago, Forrester stated that 2011 would — finally — be the year that Near Field Communications (NFC) began to matter. We predicted that dozens of millions of NFC devices would ship and that the market would start moving away from being niche, although it would still be years away from becoming mainstream. Now that 2011 is coming to an end and it is once again the time for predictions, let’s look back at NFC’s year before we publish our report on mobile trends in 2012 at the start of next year.
I recently got confirmation from trusted sources that 35 million to 40 million would be a good estimate for worldwide NFC mobile phone shipments. 2011 was a game-changing year in that handset makers eventually started to embed the technology in their product portfolio.
Despite the hype about Google Wallet, the reality is that few consumers can use it. It will take a few more years before we reach a critical mass of not just NFC device owners but also users of services enabled by NFC technology. Why? Few services are available now; the out-of-the-box experience is still poor; consumer education is missing; and there’s only limited availability of NFC readers in the retail environment.
Product strategists should stop focusing on NFC as just a contactless payment technology but should instead anticipate new uses for the technology that enable consumers to interact with the environment around them.
Most consumers using an NFC device in 2012 will more likely use it for device-pairing or data-sharing purposes than for payments. Why? Because it can work in a closed loop without the need for NFC infrastructure. Device manufacturers will offer NFC-based multimedia content sharing services, such as the recent Blackberry Tag.
Nearly a billion people around the world use Facebook — and it's no surprise marketers are chasing all those users. In fact, Facebook says 96 of the top 100 marketers are on the site. But I haven't spoken to many companies that are thrilled with their Facebook programs. Marketers worry about how few fans they have, about how few comments and wall posts they get, and about the ROI of their Facebook spending — and many of them have good reason to worry. In fact, we think most Facebook marketing programs are entirely too unfocused, too under-resourced, and don't make enough use of the entire platform.
So how can you make your Facebook marketing program work? We recommend following four steps:
Set clear objectives. If you don't know what you're trying to achieve with Facebook, you run the risk of not achieving anything at all. Are you trying to drive brand impact or sales? Generate word of mouth, increase loyalty, or provide customer service? Deciding on a few clear objectives for your Facebook program will answer most of the other questions you have — like who should fund the programs, or how you measure success.
Provide value for your fans. Once you've figured out how Facebook can drive value for your company, make sure it's driving value for your fans as well. Otherwise, why would anyone bother to hit the 'like' button? According to Carolyn Everson, VP of global marketing solutions for Facebook, the brands that succeed on Facebook are "the ones that give people a reason to be fans." This doesn't have to mean discounts and coupons — exclusive content and information works just as well.
Two weeks ago we held our 2011 Forrester EMEA Marketing & Strategy Forum in the UK. We had a great turnout, as well as fantastic speakers including Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP, Georges-Edouard Dias of L'Oreal, Ian Maskell of Unilever, and dozens of others, and I also had the pleasure of giving my first Forrester keynote. My speech covered how companies fail when they try to build old-fashioned brands, and what they must do to build new-fashioned brands. If you missed the event, then here's a highlight from my speech:
Product strategists in various industries tend to dismiss telcos' role in service innovation, focusing instead on disruptors such as Google and Apple. It is true that new entrants and over-the-top (OTT) players have bypassed carriers, reducing their role to providing bit pipes.
Product strategists at telcos are suffering from what we are calling “bit pipe syndrome.” Didier Lombard, the former CEO of France Telecom, summed this up well when he declared back in 2007, "I am not building freeways for Californian cars."
Since then, many observers have claimed that telcos will die if they do not reinvent their business models, leveraging their networks as a service. This case is overstated: Reports of operators' deaths are exaggerated.
No doubt telcos are increasingly being commoditized to the point that they will become utilities, but there is no shame in monetizing networks — carriers' bread and butter for a few more years. Fundamental connectivity remains a valuable service — all the more if product strategists focus on gaining more pricing power and delivering more segmented offerings, either on their own or with new strategic partners.
When it comes to product innovation, operators still have key assets to leverage — particularly their billing capabilities — to become trusted partners for consumers and third parties. Some global carriers have a strong presence in emerging countries, and they will have more sway in shaping the types of content services that the world consumes.
Product strategists at operators have the assets to continue to differentiate their offerings and innovate in a disrupted telecom ecosystem. I am not saying this is not challenging and extremely difficult, but here are some approaches that could work:
A year ago, Forrester fielded our Q3 2010 Global Mobile Maturity Online Survey. We interviewed more than 200 executives in charge of their companies’ mobile strategies around the globe (40% in the US, 40% in Europe, and 20% in the rest of the world). You can see the results from last year’s survey here.
To help consumer product strategists and executives benchmark and mature their mobile consumer strategies, we’re updating this survey.
Planning and organizing for the use of mobile technologies is a complex task. Some players are laggards and think they still need to get the basics of their online presence right, while others are clearly ahead of the curve. Yet two questions we consistently hear are: “Where is my organization compared with others in the use of mobile?” and “How can we mature our mobile consumer approach?”
Here’s how you can help:
If you’re in charge of your company's mobile consumer initiative or if you’re familiar with it, then please take this survey.
I've noticed a disturbing trend in one of the markets I study. Thirty percent of marketers say their top social media goal is creating brand impact, but only 10% tell us they measure brand impact — a gap of 20 percentage points. But then while just 4% say sentiment or engagement are their top goals, a whopping 26% measure these numbers —leaving us with an almost identical gap of 22 percentage points, but in the other direction. It’s clear what's happening here: Marketers are using sentiment and engagement numbers as a proxy for brand impact surveys.
Deep down I love the idea of measurement proxies. A properly constructed and proven proxy could be a cheap, quick, and effective stand-in for direct measurement of things that are quite frankly hard to measure — like brand impact.
But there’s a big problem here: I've been looking pretty hard for good measurement proxies for a while now, and I’ve found very few that could be described as "properly constructed and proven." And I'm pretty sure none of the marketers in our survey have proven their proxies — because if they'd tried, they'd have almost certainly failed.