Forrester's Online Holiday Retail Forecast Projects 16% Increase Over '09

Sucharita  Mulpuru

Forrester’s "US Online Holiday Retail Forecast, 2010" launches today, reporting quite a bit of optimism this shopping season. November and December alone are expected to pull in nearly $52 billion, a 16% increase over 2009. Several key factors contribute to this projection:

  • Consumers are shifting more and more to online retail.
  • Offline retail is still a significant player.

Consumers are cooperating, too. They’re looking to spend more this season and do so through a variety of means (mobile, apps, etc.).

Retailers are responding with numerous strategies, such as larger promotional budgets, honing in on key dates, and experimenting with new shipping options.

eBooks Ready To Climb Past $1 Billion

James McQuivey

Consider it an inauguration of sorts, a celebration of the eBook industry becoming a member of the major media club just as digital music and online video have before them. When you influence a billion dollars, people have to take you seriously. In the book business, it means that traditional publishers can no longer live in deny-and-delay mode; meanwhile, digital publishers get invited to better parties and people in other media businesses like TV and magazines look over and wonder if they could cut a slice of this new pie just for them.

To honor the occasion, we have just published our five-year forecast for eBooks in the US for Forrester clients. The punchline is this: 2010 will end with $966 million in eBooks sold to consumers. By 2015, the industry will have nearly tripled to almost $3 billion, a point at which the industry will be forever altered.

Right now, the number to track – and the one that determines how many eBooks will sell – is the percent of a consumer’s books that are bought and consumed digitally. To get at this number, we have to understand how people get books today. Did you know that the two most common ways people get books today is borrowing them from a friend or getting them from the library? Evidently content – at least in the book business – is already quite free, even without the help of digital.

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The Data Digest: Mobile Online Activities By Generation

Reineke Reitsma

Having analyzed consumers' technology behavior for more than 11 years now here at Forrester, I've seen a certain pattern surface in the uptake of technology: When new technologies become available, it's Generation X (ages 31 to 44) that adopts it first, but it's Generation Y (ages 18-30) that runs with it. Gen Xers have money to spend on technologies when they're still premium-priced, but Gen Yers have the time on their hands to really explore all possibilities. For example, when we look at online activities, young consumers spend more time online and are involved in more activities (especially when we look at social networking). However, for mobile Internet, we see a different pattern emerge.

Forrester's Technographics® data shows that Gen Xers are equally active on their mobile phones, and in some instances, like playing games, they rival the usage of their younger counterparts. In other instances, like checking news, sports, or weather or checking travel status, Gen Xers actually outpace Gen Yers.

Companies that want to target these groups should ensure that their mobile Internet experience is consistent with the regular Internet presence, ensuring a seamless experience for their consumers. The Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group is a perfect example of a company that identified the mobile needs of its clientele and then created a unique experience that allowed users to effortlessly connect both through their mobile device and online.

Making Competitive & Market Intelligence (CMI) Relevant Again

Dean Davison

Competitive & marketing intelligence (CMI) leaders are currently being torn between two points of view.  But, these two views cannot be reconciled, and CMI leaders cannot sit on the fence! I know because I tried!

As a CMI leader, I participated on a team to restructure the company's approach to pricing. On one side of the table sat the "corporate" team who wanted to simplify the product catalog, making it easier to manage.  On the other side sat the "field" team, who wanted to simplify pricing when talking with customers. I wanted to find an "elegant negotiable" that would achieve both objectives.

A talented sales engineer put me in my right mind! One day, she came into my office, closed the door, and proceeded to "school" me. She rightly pointed out that there could not be two different design points - we needed to decide whether the company would design around back-office operations or frontline conversations with customers. 

CMI leaders across the tech industry face a similar choice, albeit with less drama! 

Earlier today, the CEO of a sales-tool provider made this point: "In the past, salespeople for tech vendors had to educate customers on what a product could do, how it worked, and process orders. In today's Internet economy, customers already know what your products do from your web site, have already compared it to your competitors, and probably spoken to some of your existing customers through social media links. What is the role of a salesperson?"

CMI leaders need to reposition their organizations back to the place where competition matters - the frontline.

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How Knowledge Management Can Empower Market Research Professionals

Reineke Reitsma

Last week I was at Forrester's Consumer Forum in Chicago, where I gave a presentation with the title “If The Company Only Knew What The Company Knows: Introduction Of A Knowledge Center Can Empower Market Research Professionals.” For this presentation I did quite a lot of research and talked to many market researchers who have implemented some kind of knowledge management system. Knowledge management systems come in all kinds of flavors and with varying degrees of success, but the market researchers who managed to build a successful, engaging, and widely used system all agreed that it had changed their role.

In fact, the companies we spoke to all saw their knowledge management as a competitive advantage. Although we found a number of market researchers willing to participate in our research, none of them wanted to share all the ins and outs. In keeping with the theme, they said, "We don’t want others to know what we know."

But how can market researchers introduce knowledge management to their organizations? Based on our research, we see three different levels:

  1. Build a research center of excellence within the department.
  2. Implement a system for sharing and distributing (research) information with the organization.
  3. Develop a companywide knowledge management system.
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Customer & Market Intelligence For Sales Enablement Success

Dean Davison

A few years ago, I took the helm of customer & market intelligence (CMI) for a large vendor. Executives wanted analysis that was more relevant — intelligence that was “deeper,” “more actionable,” and provided “knock-out punches.”

As a CMI leader, you likely hear the same thing. But, as you try to improve, you get feedback such as “the material is not helpful,” “looks the same as before,” or “isn’t specific enough.”

In hindsight, if I were to join a CMI team again, I would take a completely different approach — instead of trying to refine the research itself, I would change the design point.

CMI’s sales-oriented purpose is to prepare sales teams for customer conversations!

Earlier this week, during an interview with Forrester, a CMI leader commented, “CMI can make a strategic impact on sales because it prepares sales teams about important topics and potential surprises in customer conversations.”

But across the tech industry, CMI is not succeeding:

  • A Forrester survey of technology buyers shows that only 38% of sales “reps understand the customer’s issues and are able to identify how the vendor can help.”
     
  • Preliminary data from a Forrester study of marketing executives shows that 65% claim that one of their biggest strengths is “knowledge of the markets and customers we serve.”[i]
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Most Tech Vendors Do Not Have Strong Marketing Momentum And Need Training

Peter O'Neill

We are currently cranking the data collected in our 2010 Marketing Organization and Investment survey, and the results already look spectacularly significant. So, over the next months, we’ll be reporting and commenting on how tech marketing organizations are assigning priorities and allocating their budgets for 2011. We have even designed a benchmark framework where we can compare various tech vendors’ marketing spends against each other (small versus large, country versus country, market versus market, previous year versus next year) and make some calls for you. And this year’s survey includes vendors headquartered in Europe as well!

For me, the most important data point in last year’s survey was the background of tech vendor CMOs, especially product vendors. Twenty-eight percent of those CMOs have an engineering background, and another 15% are from sales. With all respect, neither background is an optimal preparation to be running marketing in today’s tech industry — where IT is now BT, customers care less about speeds and feeds and more about business outcomes, and brand and multichannel experience count as much as in other industries. I’ll be talking about this at Forrester’s Marketing & Strategy Forum EMEA in London on November 18–19 in my “Marketing Is the New Differentiation in the Tech Industry” presentation.

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Live Streaming From Forrester's Consumer Forum 2010 - Day Two

Carrie Johnson

8:30 a.m.-8:35 a.m. CST

Day Two Opening Remarks

Carrie Johnson, Vice President, Research Director, Forrester

 

8:35 a.m.-8:50 a.m. CST

Working With IT To Build An Empowered Organization

Ted Schadler, Vice President, Principal Analyst, Forrester

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The Data Digest: How Do LATAM Consumers Feel About PC Security?

Reineke Reitsma

Ever wondered how consumers in emerging markets feel about online security? Forrester Technographics® tracks this kind of information in 17 countries worldwide, including China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. We found, for example, that in Latin America there are huge differences between Mexico and Brazil: 65% of Mexican PC owners are concerned that their PCs will become infected with malware, compared with 48% of Brazilians. However, Brazilian PC owners are much more hesitant to share any information online. Ninety-three percent of Mexican PC owners and 95% of Brazilian PC owners use some form of security measure on their home PCs.

Although Mexican PC owners are more concerned about malware and are more likely to share personal details online, they do less to protect themselves than Brazilian PC owners: They’re significantly less likely to install a pop-up blocker, spam filter, or antispyware. My colleague Roxie Strohmenger has published other posts on how Latin American consumers feel about technology, and how Brazilian and Mexican consumers show different interests and behaviors. You can check them out here.

Live Streaming From Forrester's Consumer Forum 2010 - Day One

Carrie Johnson

I'm thrilled to be blogging from Forrester's 2010 Consumer Forum at the Hilton Chicago in downtown Chicago. We've got a crowd of 600+ folks on-site and are excited for another great event.

We've heard time and again that organizations need help responding to empowered consumers, and we're aiming to address that head on with our event this year. 

During these two days on the main stage, our roster includes fantastic stories of firms that have empowered their customers and employees, such as Vail Resorts, Southwest Airlines, the NHL, ESPN, and Kellogg. Plus, Forrester's very own Charles Golvin, Josh Bernoff, and Ted Schadler will present keynotes. There's more! We're also running 20 track sessions and countless one-on-one meetings with 30+ analysts. We're packing in as much great content as we can to make this a fantastic event.

If you can’t attend, be sure to check out the highlights of the speeches and the Twitter stream below. And join us next year! We'll have an equally exciting lineup of speakers and content in 2011.

9:25 a.m.-10:10 a.m. CST

The Empowered Organization

Josh Bernoff, Sr VP - Idea Development, Forrester