Forrester’s First-Ever Online Retail Forecast For Asia Pacific Now Live

Zia Daniell Wigder

After years of looking at how the online markets of Asia Pacific are emerging from an online shopping perspective, we are thrilled to announce our first online retail forecast for China, Japan, South Korea, India and Australia.* Some findings from the forecast:

  • Japan still takes the top spot in the region. Japan retains its dominance in the region with some $45 billion in online retail sales this year. Indeed, while China’s combined B2C and C2C spending surpasses B2C spending in Japan, Japan is still the leader in traditional online retail sales. And despite the fact that online consumers in Japan are purchasing across a wide variety of categories, some category purchases like beauty have shifted online in Japan in a way they have not in the US or Europe.
  • China’s growth rates will propel it ahead of Japan in the very near future. China’s combined  B2C and C2C sales — the two are nearly impossible to separate** — are poised to reach $49 billion in 2010. China’s CAGR will be double that of the US, Western Europe and Japan, and it’s clear that China will be the eCommerce market most likely to rival that of the US.
  • Australia’s robust growth will be driven by an increasingly vibrant online retail sector.  The online marketplace in Australia is marked today by a large number of cross-border transactions, but there is growing momentum among local players. Though less than half the size of the online retail markets in Japan and China, Australia’s growth rates are slightly higher than those of Japan and its US and Western European counterparts.
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Barnes & Noble's NOOKcolor Puts A Market-Defining Stake In The Ground

James McQuivey

Today, amid the kind of rumor and speculation that is more typical of a Silicon Valley announcement, Barnes & Noble unveiled its NOOKcolor, a second NOOK to complement the barely one-year-old original. The NOOKcolor brings a 7" color LCD touch tablet device to the reading market, filling a gap between today's grayscale eReaders that use eInk technology and tablet PCs like the iPad.

This move puts B&N ahead of both Amazon and Sony -- the longtime holders of the number 1 and number 2 slots in the eReader business. Not ahead in terms of device sales, because this new NOOK, priced at $249, will be likely to drive a few hundred thousand units before year-end. But ahead in terms of vision. Because one day, all eReaders will be tablets, just as all tablets are already eReaders.

There are three good reasons why tablet readers are the right thing for the industry to move toward:

  1. Multitouch interfaces have become the new standard. Once consumers experience multitouch, they don't really ever go back to thinking a mouse or button interface makes much sense. Doesn't mean they never touch another button, it just means they prefer to interact in a more natural and intuitive way. That's why Sony recently upgraded its reader line to include touch on even its cheapest model, the Pocket Edition. 
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Strategy Should Guide Learning From Voice Of The Customer Programs

Paul Hagen

Listening to customers through a well-established voice of the customer (VOC) program is critical. However, without a customer experience strategy rooted in a company strategy, it’s easy for a firm to lose track of its core value proposition to key target customers.

Don Norman tells a wonderful story about a conversation he had with Southwest Airlines chairman Herbert Kelleher that speaks directly to my latest report on customer experience strategy:

"Use Southwest Airlines as the model. When customers demanded reserved seating, inter-line baggage transfer, and food service, they refused (and only now, are reluctantly providing semi-reserved seating). Why? It is not because they ignore their customers. On the contrary, it is because they understood that their customers had a much more critical need. Southwest realized that what the customers really wanted was low fares and on-time service, and these other things would have interfered with those goals.

 I once had a lively, entertaining dinner with Herbert Kelleher, Chairman and co-founder of Southwest Airlines. I asked him why they had ignored the requests of their customers. Herb looked me up and down sternly, sighed, took another sip of his drink, uttered a few obscenities, and patiently explained. His marketing people asked the wrong question. They should have asked, would you pay $100 more for inter-airline baggage transfers? $50 more for reserved seating? No, the customers wouldn't have. They valued on-time, low-cost flights, and that is what Southwest delivers.

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iPhone Versus Droid: A Personal Perspective

Harley Manning

I’ve been meaning to write about this topic for a while. What got me past the tipping point was receiving yet another in the series of hilarious videos in the iPhone versus Evo wars. (I love those, no matter which side they come down on.)

Let me first disclaim that I do not cover mobile devices for Forrester so I am speaking strictly as an end user. Okay, I have disclaimed! Now for the story . . .

Way back in the spring, I was visiting my sister and brother-in-law in Ohio. My sister had recently gotten herself a Droid and was not very happy with it. She let me play with it for a while, and I have to say that I did not like its weight, the sharp corners, and the little vibratory “thunk” of physical feedback that probably seemed like a good idea to the designers but came off as annoying after about the third time it happened. The GUI was okay but didn’t strike me as an improvement over my iPhone — in fact, I thought it was a little worse.

My sister had come to similar conclusions. She had purchased the phone so she could stay with Verizon as her wireless service provider. Her biggest complaint, though, was the lack of a decent app store. And when I say “decent,” I mean that literally. When she called up her app store, she got a really bad interface that didn’t help her find relevant apps without a struggle. Worse, about every third listing was a porno app. (I guess that’s what happens when you don’t curate content.)

Anyway, she regretted her choice but felt locked in by her contract.

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Why Slashing The Price Of Hulu Plus Is The Right Thing To Do

James McQuivey

If Hulu were a dramatic figure, it would occupy a classic character role: the ingenue. The fair and unassuming ingenue naively enters a perilous circumstance with the best of intentions and soon finds that ruin awaits at every turn. The story typically plays out in one of two ways: Either the ingenue is sullied and descends to the level of the forces that surround her (think Grease), or a dashing hero enters to redeem the ingenue, removing the burdens her exposure to the world has caused (think just about everything else). These paths are both open to Hulu, and many observers are actively rooting for one or the other outcome.

There's a third, if rare, outcome: The ingenue evolves to become the hero, using guileless sincerity to overcome the evils of the world (think Pollyanna, a Hayley Mills classic). Nobody believes in Pollyannas anymore. Certainly not in the business world. But to succeed in its plans to build a paying customer base, Hulu has no other choice to but play the ingenue all the way to this third end.

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Now More Than Ever, Firms Need Frameworks For Managing Global Online Standards

Ronald Rogowski

I’ve recently had several conversations with companies that are looking to improve how they standardize online experiences around the globe. It’s something I’ve been helping firms with for some time. It’s always been a complex issue, but now it’s getting even more challenging because we’re moving to a new era of online experience.

As outlined in the Forrester report, “The Future Of Online Customer Experience,” consumers will increasingly demand experiences that are customized for their context, aggregated from multiple sources, relevant at the point of consumption, and social by rule, not exception. As touchpoints proliferate across a range of devices, it will become increasingly difficult to manage the online experience in a single country, let alone in dozens of them. Add to that the increasing need for more specialized (and, by extension, localized) experiences, and it’s easy to see how a cookie-cutter online experience will be difficult to duplicate from one country to the next with maximum relevance.

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Will Empowered Users Change How Business Software Is Serviced?

Peter O'Neill

Here is a short anecdote to explain that question. As you’d expect, I’m an intense user of email, and here at Forrester, our IT department provides us with Microsoft Outlook. They also regularly slap my wrist because my email storage requirements are “excessive,” which is mainly due to the fact that I retain all my sent mails on file and Outlook has no facility to detach and delete attachments when filing. So, in order to save myself the relatively nonsensical task of manually detaching all attachments, I have found a nice utility tool called EZDetach from a firm called TechHit to do this in an automated manner. It probably saves me a couple of hours per month, and TechHit also provides other useful tools for filing and folder management in Outlook. I found it myself, downloaded and installed it myself, and even paid for the software myself (though I might try to sneak that invoice into an expense report some time). I don’t feel guilty at having bypassed IT, only relieved that I can disappear from their evident blacklist of individuals overusing their storage. I feel even more secure after my analyst colleague Stefan Ried, who knows much more about these things, raved enthusiastically about the same software in a recent tweet. I suppose that makes me an empowered user; though I did not help a customer directly though my action, I certainly freed up more time to interact with clients.

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National Australia Bank Tops Our Australian Bank Content & Functionality Benchmark

Benjamin Ensor

A few months ago I wrote here about our benchmark of the sales content and functionality of UK banks' sales sites. My colleague Vanessa Niemeyer has just published a benchmark of the big four Australian banks' sales sites. Crushingly for an Englishman, the Australians beat us. The four Australian banks achieved an average score of 56 (out of 100), compared with an average of 48 for the British banks.*

National Australia Bank (NAB) came top, just ahead of Westpac in second place, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia not far behind. The Australian banks demonstrate a series of good practices in their application processes, such as cross-selling during the application and automated confirmations. We highlight many of the good practices that the eBusiness teams at the Australian banks have developed in the report which is available for Forrester clients here.

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Looking Forward To Forrester's Marketing & Strategy Forum In London Next Month

Benjamin Ensor

Many of my colleagues in the eBusiness & Channel Strategy team at Forrester have been working extremely hard for the past few weeks, preparing for next week's Consumer Forum, which is taking place at the Hilton in Chicago on October 28th and 29th. Among my colleagues who are presenting their latest research are Brian Walker, Diane Clarkson and Zia Daniell Wigder, while Carrie Johnson is hosting the entire event. I'm sure it will be two days well spent.

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The Data Digest: Why Travelers Befriend A Brand

Reineke Reitsma

Social media has forever changed the way travelers interact with each other and companies — and its use is still growing. Forrester Technographics® data shows that 26 million more US online leisure travelers use social media in 2010 than in 2008. In fact, leisure travelers are really connected to travel companies beyond booking: A high 41% of US online leisure travelers have become travel social fans (TSFs) by friending, following, or becoming fans of a travel company or destination on a social networking site like Facebook, YouTube, Flickr, or Twitter. But why do they do this?

As the data shows, discounts are a powerful motivator. One in three friends, follows, or fans travel companies and destinations to learn about the seller's offers and discounts. As a result, smart travel organizations will start using social networking sites as extensions of their Web sites for travel deals. Travelocity, for example, has a 'roaming gnome' on its Facebook page that offers and promotes the company’s "Deals Toolkit." JetBlue Airways has a dedicated Twitter account, @JetBlueCheeps, to push special deals. Who will follow with the holiday season coming up?