IBM Goes Deeply Predictive, Announces Acquisition of SPSS

By James Kobielus

IBM dropped a big bombshell at the start of any already action-packed day for the analyst community. At this moment, I’m sitting, along with several dozen of my peers from Forrester and other firms, at the IBM Smart Analytics System launch event in Hawthorne NY. I’ll blog on IBM’s other announcements in a separate items.

The bombshell was IBM’s announcement that it’s acquiring SPSS, a long-established, leading provider of predictive analytics (PA), data mining (DM), statistical analysis, and text mining tools. The acquisition, subject to the usual shareholder approvals and regulatory reviews, is expected to close later this year. But, even in advance of that near-certain consummation, IBM’s bold move has already sent shockwaves throughout the analytics market.

Most important, IBM has acquired the second largest vendor of PA/DM solutions, dwarfed only by privately held SAS Institute. In this segment, IBM’s proposed acquisition is having the same impact that its Cognos buy had on the business intelligence (BI) market two years ago. In many discussions with Forrester customers, SPSS is often mentioned as a key solution provider for predictive modeling and statistical analysis against structured, semi-structured, and unstructured content.

For IBM’s competitive standing in the data management market, this acquisition represents one of the last missing pieces of its Information On Demand (IOD) portfolio. By acquiring SPSS, IBM has acquired a substantial PA/DM brand with a very loyal set of longtime customers who have build their customer churn, supply chain optimization, and other predictive models on its best-of-breed platform. SPSS recently underlined its feature-comprehensive value proposition through re-branding around the “Predictive Analytics Software” (PASW) family name. But longtime customers didn’t need to be reminded, of course, that what used to be known as “Clementine” defines a functional high-bar in this solution segment.

IBM would probably be the first to admit that it took its focus off the PA/DM market over the past several years as it build out the BI, data warehousing (DW), and other pieces of its IOD portfolio. IBM had never really exited the PA/DM market, but casual observers might have thought otherwise. However, the vendor three years ago chose to de-emphasize its Intelligent Miner tools--which support mining of structured data--as stand-alone offerings. It essentially buried these solutions, moving them into its InfoSphere Balanced Warehouse family, where they are now offered as features of its Enterprise Edition DW software, rather than as stand-alone tools that would be enhanced and evolved independently.

IBM and SPSS’s respective customer bases should rest assured that overlaps among their respective product portfolios are not extensive. Once the acquisition closes, IBM is almost certain to build out its SPSS brand and, over the coming 1-2 years, phase out the Intelligent Miner technology within its InfoSphere portfolio. One tricky issue is which text analytics solution family--SPSS’ or IBM’s OmniFind solutions--will prevail as the parent converges these offerings in its IOD portfolio. Another issue is how IBM will integrate the SPSS offerings into its still-evolving in-database analytics roadmap for InfoSphere Balanced Warehouse. Hopefully, IBM will maintain and extend SPSS’ already extensive in-database analytics integration with a broad range of vendor DWs, including such Big Blue rivals as Oracle, Microsoft, Sybase, and Teradata.

Who loses from IBM’s acquisition of SPSS? Fundamentally, one can’t help think that SAP missed the boat by not seizing the opportunity to acquire partner SPSS, whose Clementine technology it OEMs, has integrated with its BI technology, and sells as SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Workbench. PA/DM is an increasingly key component of a full-fledged BI solution stack. However, the remaining field of vendors with stand-alone, horizontally applicable PA/DM vendors consists primarily of vendors who are large but proudly and stubbornly independent (especially, SAS Institute); high-quality but much less widely adopted (e.g., KXEN, ThinkAnalytics); or specialized on customer, financial, scientific, or other specialized analytics (e.g., Unica, Fair Isaac, Accelrys).

Some IBM rivals in the BI space already have strong PA/DM tools, most notably Oracle (Oracle Data Miner) and TIBCO/Spotfire (the Insightful tools). Among BI vendors, Microsoft, MicroStrategy, and Information Builders have PA/DM capabilities, but they are not to a SAS or SPSS level of sophistication. These and other BI vendors should also be scouting for strategic acquisitions.

What do you think? Will IBM’s acquisition of SPSS lead to further merger and acquisition activity in this space as other leading BI players strengthen their PA/DM solutions?

By James Kobielus

IBM dropped a big bombshell at the start of any already action-packed day for the analyst community. At this moment, I’m sitting, along with several dozen of my peers from Forrester and other firms, at the IBM Smart Analytics System launch event in Hawthorne NY. I’ll blog on IBM’s other announcements in a separate items.

The bombshell was IBM’s announcement that it’s acquiring SPSS, a long-established, leading provider of predictive analytics (PA), data mining (DM), statistical analysis, and text mining tools. The acquisition, subject to the usual shareholder approvals and regulatory reviews, is expected to close later this year. But, even in advance of that near-certain consummation, IBM’s bold move has already sent shockwaves throughout the analytics market.

Most important, IBM has acquired the second largest vendor of PA/DM solutions, dwarfed only by privately held SAS Institute. In this segment, IBM’s proposed acquisition is having the same impact that its Cognos buy had on the business intelligence (BI) market two years ago. In many discussions with Forrester customers, SPSS is often mentioned as a key solution provider for predictive modeling and statistical analysis against structured, semi-structured, and unstructured content.

For IBM’s competitive standing in the data management market, this acquisition represents one of the last missing pieces of its Information On Demand (IOD) portfolio. By acquiring SPSS, IBM has acquired a substantial PA/DM brand with a very loyal set of longtime customers who have build their customer churn, supply chain optimization, and other predictive models on its best-of-breed platform. SPSS recently underlined its feature-comprehensive value proposition through re-branding around the “Predictive Analytics Software” (PASW) family name. But longtime customers didn’t need to be reminded, of course, that what used to be known as “Clementine” defines a functional high-bar in this solution segment.

IBM would probably be the first to admit that it took its focus off the PA/DM market over the past several years as it build out the BI, data warehousing (DW), and other pieces of its IOD portfolio. IBM had never really exited the PA/DM market, but casual observers might have thought otherwise. However, the vendor three years ago chose to de-emphasize its Intelligent Miner tools--which support mining of structured data--as stand-alone offerings. It essentially buried these solutions, moving them into its InfoSphere Balanced Warehouse family, where they are now offered as features of its Enterprise Edition DW software, rather than as stand-alone tools that would be enhanced and evolved independently.

IBM and SPSS’s respective customer bases should rest assured that overlaps among their respective product portfolios are not extensive. Once the acquisition closes, IBM is almost certain to build out its SPSS brand and, over the coming 1-2 years, phase out the Intelligent Miner technology within its InfoSphere portfolio. One tricky issue is which text analytics solution family--SPSS’ or IBM’s OmniFind solutions--will prevail as the parent converges these offerings in its IOD portfolio. Another issue is how IBM will integrate the SPSS offerings into its still-evolving in-database analytics roadmap for InfoSphere Balanced Warehouse. Hopefully, IBM will maintain and extend SPSS’ already extensive in-database analytics integration with a broad range of vendor DWs, including such Big Blue rivals as Oracle, Microsoft, Sybase, and Teradata.

Who loses from IBM’s acquisition of SPSS? Fundamentally, one can’t help think that SAP missed the boat by not seizing the opportunity to acquire partner SPSS, whose Clementine technology it OEMs, has integrated with its BI technology, and sells as SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Workbench. PA/DM is an increasingly key component of a full-fledged BI solution stack. However, the remaining field of vendors with stand-alone, horizontally applicable PA/DM vendors consists primarily of vendors who are large but proudly and stubbornly independent (especially, SAS Institute); high-quality but much less widely adopted (e.g., KXEN, ThinkAnalytics); or specialized on customer, financial, scientific, or other specialized analytics (e.g., Unica, Fair Isaac, Accelrys).

Some IBM rivals in the BI space already have strong PA/DM tools, most notably Oracle (Oracle Data Miner) and TIBCO/Spotfire (the Insightful tools). Among BI vendors, Microsoft, MicroStrategy, and Information Builders have PA/DM capabilities, but they are not to a SAS or SPSS level of sophistication. These and other BI vendors should also be scouting for strategic acquisitions.

What do you think? Will IBM’s acquisition of SPSS lead to further merger and acquisition activity in this space as other leading BI players strengthen their PA/DM solutions?

Microsoft Office 2010: The Odyssey Continues

by Sheri McLeish

Sequels never can match the thrill of the original. But the good ones offer a compelling story of their own, develop familiar characters, and introduce something new and exciting. Last week Microsoft gave developers a backstage pass to preview Office 2010, due out in the first half of next year. The drama unfolds with Microsoft and Google waging a multi-front war with each other in search, browsers, productivity tools, and, soon, operating systems. Glimpses of the fourteenth iteration of Office reveal Web-based lightweight apps along with capabilities geared at improving collaboration, multimedia content development, and email management.

Can Office 2010 save the franchise? Or will a simpler, better customer experience from Google draw in a bigger audience before next summer? And what does it mean for the bit players, independents, and sleepers like the Open Office suites from IBM/Lotus, Novell, and Sun, or for Adobe, Zoho, Thinkfree, Corel … that’s a lot of competition for a sluggish software market that Forrester sees as being down by 5% or more for the year.  The glimmer of hope for software vendors will likely come from subscriptions revenue for software-as-a-service (SaaS) products in 2010, which Forrester projects to grow by 7.5%.

Microsoft wants to lead that growing SaaS market. For enterprises, what’s notable about the Office 2010 story is that Office Web apps can be on-premise or hosted. The lightweight Web browser versions of Word, PowerPoint, Excel and OneNote will be free for consumers through Windows Live. Pow! But the bigger deal for enterprises is the option to host Office Web apps on-premises as annuity customers as well as via a hosted subscription through Microsoft Online Services. This option isn’t offered by Google today and, for the moment, may be what makes Office Web apps a hit in the enterprise.

To date, Microsoft’s dominance in large businesses remains mostly intact, with 57% of firms running Office 2007 and 80% supporting some version of Office.  Combined, the alternatives make up less than 8% of the enterprise market, according to Forrester’s March 2009 North America, Europe, And Asia Pacific Desktop Innovation Online Survey. And of those Forrester surveyed, 78% said they have no plans to look for an alternative to Microsoft Office. Real barriers remain for alternatives, from concerns about content control and security, sunk license costs, and online/offline issues for Web-based tools to fear of rejection by business users. Like it, love it, or not, people have a comfortable, familiar relationship with the Office apps. And that’s a critical edge Microsoft must maintain.

Technology Populism is fueling the collaboration and mobile collaboration markets and blurring the lines between work/life boundaries.  The influence of consumer experience can be equally powerful if harnessed by Google for email and productivity. Most enterprise IT departments rely on the feedback of their business users to measure the value of their productivity tools. Forrester data also shows upgrades generally driven by business demands (34%), because current tools are no longer supported (24%), are no longer compatible (16%), or because the culture demands it (15%). By promoting free access to Web-based tools, Microsoft seeks the sway of the public. Office 2000 ends support this month; Microsoft needs to get those firms on board with 2010 somehow. What will your firm do? What are your barriers to upgrading Office or moving to an alternative? Now is a good time to clarify your firm’s strategy, because 2010 looks like it could be a blockbuster year for buyers prepared to negotiate.

BI, Analytics, And CEP: Some Fruitful Potential Follow-Ons From Software AG’s Acquisition Of IDS Scheer

 by James Kobielus

Yes, of course, Software AG is buying IDS Scheer primarily for the latter’s ARIS family of business process management (BPM) tools. I’ll leave it to my Forrester colleagues who focus on BPM--on both the IT and TI sides of the house--to call out the ramifications for Software AG’s positioning in that market.

But, believe it or not, this deal will also launch Software AG into the growing markets for business intelligence (BI), analytics, and complex event processing (CEP) solutions. We bet you didn’t realize that IDS Scheer has ARIS solutions in these fast growing markets, but in fact they do--and they’re continue to evolve those offerings.

It’s no surprise that IDS Scheer’s BI, analytics, and CEP offerings supplement and extend its BPM portfolio. Its CEP solution, ARIS Process Event Monitor, supports business activity monitoring (BAM). Its analytics offerings, ARIS Process Performance Management and ARIS Performance Dashboard, support visualization, dashboarding, scorecarding, drilldown, and alerting on process key performance indicators (KPIs), both historical and real-time. And its forthcoming BI offering, ARIS MashZone, will support self-service user development of reports, dashboards, and other views of process and business metrics.

IDS Scheer has little market share in these non-core segments. And the vendor is no immediate threat, by itself or under its future corporate parent, to the leaders in the BI, analytics, and CEP segments. Indeed, its forthcoming mashup-oriented BI offering only provides a subset of the features available from market leaders such as SAP Business Objects, IBM Cognos, and MicroStrategy. But the fact that Software AG will soon be able to provide its own offerings in those segments, rather than rely wholly on partners, represents an important step in its attempt to field a full service oriented architecture (SOA) solution stack.

As noted in a blog entry a year and a half ago, BI is the crown jewel in any comprehensive SOA solution portfolio. SOA suites cannot be considered feature-complete unless they incorporate a comprehensive range of BI features. This acquisition continues the ongoing SOA solution build-out strategy that motivated Software AG to acquire webMethods in 2007.

But it’s not clear yet whether Software AG plans to flesh out its BI, analytics, and CEP strategies going forward and thereby confront SAP, Oracle, IBM, Microsoft, and other SOA full-stack vendors head-on in these segments. It is also unclear how much effort or expense Software AG would incur in extricating the IDS Scheer offerings from the larger ARIS portfolio in order to make them more general-purpose and less BPM-centric. Nevertheless, Software AG will at the very least have a strong set of enabling technologies to support any such strategy in the near future.

What’s most exciting, and potentially differentiating, about the Software AG/IDS Scheer BI portfolio is the combination of CEP with mashup and an in-memory architecture to support truly real-time, interactive analytics. In other words, Software AG/IDS Scheer could take a page out of the book of another SOA full-stack vendor: TIBCO and its Spotfire product group. In doing so, Software AG/IDS Scheer would also be well-positioned to duke it out with SAP, IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, all of which are beginning to emphasize in-memory CEP-enabled BI strategies. As we noted in a report from late 2008, in-memory architectures are coming to dominate the BI arena. Likewise, Forrester has called attention in to the growing adoption of CEP for truly real-time BI.

Whether Software AG capitalizes on the opportunity to expand its SOA solution stack into BI remains to be seen. Considering that it took Oracle more than a year to publicly declare how it will position BEA’s CEP and data federation technologies within its own SOA stack, we may have to wait a while before Software AG and IDS Scheer craft an equivalent roadmap--if they ever do.

But if they wait too long, the newly merging vendors may find that the dynamic SOA, BI, and CEP markets have passed them by.

Office 2010 Backstage: Content + Context = Collaboration

  by Ted Schadler

Microsoft announced more details on Office 2010 today. It's a healthy release from my perspective: more, simpler, better, faster, cleaner. But there's an interesting new thing that Microsoft has introduced with this release. They call it "Backstage," but it might be easier to think of it as the context of the document -- everything you need know about it and everything that you can do with it.

At the highest level, Backstage is all the stuff you do once the document has been created: save it, print it, email it, etc. It's also all of the metadata associated with the document: permissions, version history, etc. This makes it much easier for teams to collaborate on documents and for documents to be part of a workflow or business process.

It looks like this:

So why does this matter? Three reasons:

1. The "context" of the document as visible as the contents of the document. It's as if the book just got a cover, a card catalog label, and an availability tracker. Wow. Metadata that matters to anyone who's looking for the document.

2. Documents can carry their permissions around with them in a machine-manageable way. This is critical in a world where IT doesn't always control the devices that information workers use to access documents. For security reasons alone, it's valuable to have the permissions explicit and attached to the document itself.

3. Backstage is extensible.That means IT shops and third-party developers can build applications that attach context to important documents. For example, a budgeting process goes through approval steps. For the first time, the document itself can carry the status on the book jacket, not at the top of the doc itself. This matters because computers can update the status easily by changing the metadata value.

Clearly, we all need to go learn a lot more about Microsoft's intentions to utilize Backstage as a core platform element of the Office 2010 system. For example, how will Backstage by harnessed by SharePoint? But in the meantime, it's something new to consider as the Office 2010 train pulls out of the station.

Thoughts, comments, concerns? Please comment.

 

Podcast: The Rise Of The Machine (Translations)

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There has been a recent increase in the use of computers to translate information from one human language to another. In this podcast, senior analyst Tim Walters discusses the reasons for this boom in machine translation, how the two main types of machine translation work, and the business use cases for it.

We look forward to your questions and comments.

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