14 Things I Learned At Davos 2012

This was my eleventh trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. My posts from the last few years can be found here:  2011, 2010. This year felt more subdued and fearful than the last few -- a pall cast by the continually roiling European debt crisis. While caution emanated from the economy, hope and positive vibes pulsed out of technology. Most of the under 30 and under 40 types at Davos have recently launched tech companies -- their energy and natural lean to the future kept the aging plutocrats on their toes. It's obvious that the digital economy approaches -- an economy in which no company, regardless of whether it sells tires, insurance, or machine tools will be able to expand market share and profit without continually thinking, "Digital first."
 
Aside from that lesson, here are 14 other things I learned...
 
1) Mick Jagger is short and appears to be entering his 12th decade. But he's still a great dancer.
 
2) 50% of the people in Middle East are under the age of 25. Demographics continues to drive political destiny. The Arab Spring will not be restricted to one season. A decade of turmoil lies ahead, caused by too many young people and not enough jobs.
 
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56% Of Time Spent On Social Is Wasted

Respondents to my one question survey report that 56% of the time they spend on social is wasted. 

While hardly scientific, this result gives credence to the views I expressed at Le Web that we are heading into a Post Social (POSO) period. In POSO, a new wave of social tools will emerge that are: easier to use, more filtered, more efficient, more private, faster, and offer a better value/time proposition.
 
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Does Social Waste Time? Take The One Question Survey

If you use social tools like Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube, blogs, discussion groups,  etc., how much of that social activity would you classify as wasted time? Take the 15 second survey...

Thanks very much for your response -- I will post the results back here.

Thunderstorms: The Conversation Continues . . .

My speech at Le Web (Three Social Thunderstorms) continues to stimulate debate. While many do not agree with my analysis, the discussion has challenged conventional wisdom and helped people see alternative futures -- a longtime Forrester value . . . 

Here are six sites that carry interesting rebuttals and threads: Both Sides Of The TableGigaOMFred Wilson’s Sunday Debate, Logic Emotion, Technorati, and Techcrunch. The latter is a video discussion.

A few clarifications that may heighten the dialogue:

1) The Web is dying, not the Internet. The Web is software that we've used since circa 1994 to communicate information over the network called the Internet. Web replaced other software that used to dominate the Internet -- Usenet, Gopher, user groups, etc.. The Internet is alive and well -- it's the software on top that will change.

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Le Web 2011

This conference in Paris is pretty cool. About 50% French attendees and the rest are Americans and Europeans. Venture capital, startups, big vendorites, not much enterprise. Loic and Geraldine put on a great show -- I would estimate that there are 2,000 attendees. 

My talk was titled Three Social Thunderstorms. It covered: 1) Death of the Web, the approach of App Internet, 2) Social is saturated, 3) Enterprise Social is the next big opportunity. 

My presentation in PDF form can found here. You can also find it on YouTube.

Four BT Lessons

IT at Forrester is now called Business Technology (BT). The head of BT is the Chief Business Technology Officer (CBTO). Farewell to IT and the CIO.

Big deal -- a few words changed. But did it make a difference?

Yes -- in four simple ways.

1) The job search. In the CBTO job search, we got better candidates than expected. Why? They loved the new title and the focus on business, not just tech. We got high level applicants because CBTO was aspirational.

2) Business focus. We viewed CBTO candidates through a new lens, pushing us to hire high. We were looking for people who had worked to increase revenue, profit, and market share of companies. We wanted someone who understood that a CBTO doesn't serve the business -- they are the business.

3) Regime change. Once the CBTO was hired, he was able to launch a new regime -- IT is dead, now it's time for BT. This enabled him to set new goals for the technology team, redefine the relationship between technology and business, and re-invigorate the people who work in technology at Forrester.

4) A new yardstick. It introduced new standards for technology. Old IT was about uptime. BT is about: agility, speed, being bullet-proof, customer-centricity, and business-centricity. 

Our research has shown that CEOs do not trust their CIOs to innovate or build business process. My direct experience is that changing one letter from "I" to "B" is a good start toward building that trust. Words do matter. Try it.

Five Predictions On Digital In Asia

I was in Dalian, China last month at the World Economic Forum's summer event where I moderated a panel on Digital Asia. The punch line: Asia will be a center of digital innovation . . . counter-balancing the US.

My panel included Wang Jianzhou, Chairman of the biggest cell phone operator in the world (China Mobile), Takeshi Natsuno, the founder of iMode at DoCoMo, Michelle Guthrie, Director of Goggle Asia Pacific, and other distinguished panel members. You can watch our conversation on YouTube. Here are the panel’s five predictions about Asia and digital:

1. Asia will lead the world into the use of e-money.

Consumers in Hong Kong -- with their Octopus card -- and Singapore and Japan -- with the FeliCa system -- already use this technology and are thriving on its efficiency and convenience. This is an opportunity for Asia to demonstrate digital leadership.

2. The digital divide in Asia will shrink.

Data from Forrester suggests that this transformation is already taking place. Internet adoption is up across Asia this year – increasing 9% in India and 13% in China. Mobile internet adoption is growing too – up 12% in China and 10% in India.

3. Internet in Asia will become more local.

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Apps Beat Web

In January of 2011, Forrester's research showed that tablet owners used the Web far more than apps on their device. Over the last few weeks, visitors to my blog indicated that apps had passed the Web (check out the results at left).

Now this survey was not scientifically significant, but it's another signal that users are shifting away from browsers to apps. Why? Better experience, speed, ease of use. The App Internet approaches. 

Steve

At a conference of CIOs that I attended this morning in Lisbon, all of our group were reflective and emotionally affected by the news of Jobs’ death – many heartfelt words were spoken from the stage, as they have been on stages, social networks, phone calls, and conversations all over the world today. And as we all mourned, many of us were literally holding Steve in our hands as we communicated via iPads, iPhones, Keynote, and Macs.
 
Steve leaves a vast and extraordinary legacy and I will let the more eloquent pay tribute. But I will make a prediction and I will express a hope.
 
I believe that we will look back at the 2002-2011 period as a golden age of technology – driven by Jobs at his most visionary. All of the promise of digital was finally being delivered in a way that was truly powerful, simple, and matched to human beings. I predict that we won’t see such an outpouring again for decades. 
 
But I hope that I am wrong. My hope is that Steve inspires all of us in the technology business to stop creating confusing, poorly-designed, slow, complex, ugly, maddening products that weigh down rather than lift up the work and souls of people. My hope is that Apple’s next ten years are more insanely great than its last and that its competitors are inspired to keep or exceed the pace. My hope is that Steve’s lessons will bring about a better world.
 
To the Apple and Jobs families, Forrester sends its best thoughts.  

Are You Using Apps Or The Web? Vote Here

Forrester believes that the world will move away from the Web toward App Internet -- powerful local devices (like an iPad)  running programs that transparently link to resources in the cloud. My impressionistic view would support our thesis. As an example, I was recently with Susan Lyne, the CEO of online retailer Gilt. She told me that her customers were increasingly accessing her site via apps, and not the Web -- because it was faster and offered a superior experience. 

The last time Forrester surveyed tablet users (in January, 2011) we found that 16% were spending more time on apps, 39% were spending more time browsing, and 45% spend about the same amount of time browsing and using apps.

How about you? Apps or Web on your tablet? Click here, then vote in the right hand column below "About this blog." After you vote, you'll see the results of the vote to date. Thanks.