Thunderstorms: The Conversation Continues . . .

My speech at Le Web (Three Social Thunderstorms) continues to stimulate debate. While many do not agree with my analysis, the discussion has challenged conventional wisdom and helped people see alternative futures -- a longtime Forrester value . . . 

Here are six sites that carry interesting rebuttals and threads: Both Sides Of The TableGigaOMFred Wilson’s Sunday Debate, Logic Emotion, Technorati, and Techcrunch. The latter is a video discussion.

A few clarifications that may heighten the dialogue:

1) The Web is dying, not the Internet. The Web is software that we've used since circa 1994 to communicate information over the network called the Internet. Web replaced other software that used to dominate the Internet -- Usenet, Gopher, user groups, etc.. The Internet is alive and well -- it's the software on top that will change.

2) HTML5 isn't App Internet. Yes, it will provide many improvements that will enchance the "Web App" experience, but as HTML improves, the technologies underlying App Internet will move forward at the same or faster rates. Confused about Web Apps versus App Internet? Here's a simple litmus test: Turn off or unplug the network. If you can still work, you're likely in App Internet land. If work stops, you're probably using a Web App. 

3) Many problems will plague the App Internet. From security issues, to the more closed market structure, to business models (Apple takes too high a percentage!), App Internet remains immature and flawed. But App Internet's superior user experience and leverage of the amazing power inflation at the periphery of the network will outweigh the downside, giving the market sufficient incentive to fix the problems.

4) Post Social (POSO) does not mean no social. Social will thrive in its "post" period -- increasing in value, injecting refined simplicity and useability, and vastly lowering the waste/time spent quotient. The golden age of social lies ahead as improved offerings replace much of the first wave.

I hope this sheds a little more light.

Comments

I understand the benefits of

I understand the benefits of Internet App but there is still brakes that need answers :
- How about the problem of multi OS platform and upgrades ? Internet App needs specific development for the different OS and need upgrade on each platform
- How about the price of development of Internet App vs Web App ? the development for Internet App and upgrades are more expensive.

Therefore don't you think company will choose Web App that can offer good user experience for less money and less cost of upgrades rather than Inertnet App that is still a very closed environment ?

Web App versus App Internet

I don't think that the languages or operating systems will matter, as long as the final architecture provides an elegant interpolation between powerful local processing and the vast resources of the cloud. What would be very cool would be if HTML5 could morph into a standard programming environment that did just that -- then developers could develop once for all platforms. Unfortunately, codified standards like HTML often end up being lowest common denominator, leaving the door open for much richer user experiences coming from closed solutions.

That all said, I would envision that there will only be three platforms to develop for over the next three years: 1) Android, 2) iOS, and 3) Windows (if Microsoft can get its act together).

George

Better late than never

Late to this party -- a newly minted FOG here (Fan of George ;)

The passing of the Web is inevitable. But, so is the eventual passing of the Internet itself. Reading through the point/counterpoints, the faultline is around speculation within "science-fiction timelines" or the practical development timelines of today's developers. Within their respective timeframes, both arguments are correct. The web is dead, but not just yet.

In 1890 or so, Western Union was correct that telephones would never displace the telegraph. They were right, but only for a few years.

Applications of your talk/research

Hello Mr. Colony,

I have watched this video around January earlier this year, and I must say I was impressed then, and I am still impressed now. Your reads on the industry, however seeming far-fetched by most mainstream tech people, are gaining traction. With Microsoft's release of their new tablet makes the hardware aspect of the tech race even more interesting.

I am twenty-three years old and a software developer myself, currently living in the Philippines. My partner and I have been working on a cross-platform, mobile chat software for almost a year. We have discovered that by combining an instant messaging platform and lighter social media elements (content), we can create a product far more enjoyable in user experience than typical mobile instant messaging tools, while at the same time giving a better social media experience than Facebook. The typical user is usually bombarded with too much information, that frankly also makes advertisements in Facebook also useless. In our product, we'll be using an advertising model that is similar to product placement in TV and movies, which makes it a much more premium product (in theory) for advertisers. Definitely a Post-Social (POSO) product that has learned the lessons from the first social wave of the internet.

However, this all cannot be done without the right investment/venture capital. Finding this in the Philippines has been dire at best, and we've been searching for months in vain. I ask hopefully that if you are interested in hearing more about our product that you might send me an email to discuss this further. I know this is all too good to be true, but we have been at this for almost a year (with much progress) and I am certain at this stage we need more seed-capital to carry forward.

Thank you sir for reading and good luck in your future endeavors.

Best Regards,
Alan Ortiz