Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

At Davos the big question was: "When are we going to get out of this economic mess?" So I decided to take an informal poll of attendees. The question I asked was: "When will world GDP start to increase again?" Strangely, the early poll results were quite negative -- the average was hovering in the mid-2011 range. But as the World Economic Forum wore on, there was creeping optimism -- I started to get more 2010s (and an occasional 2009) than 2011s. My sample cut across a wide swath, from CEOs to journalists to academics to political leaders -- 55 votes in total.

According to my unscientific Davos poll, world GDP will turn and begin to grow again in April of 2010.

Depressing? Not necessarily. Davos rarely gets it right. Remember, this was the group that was highly bullish only 12 short months ago.

Comments

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

George,This is a heartening progression of optimism. Would love the recovery to come sooner, but right now some time in 2010 sounds pretty good. Thanks for continuing to give us the big picture and a way to tap your brain a bit. Much appreciated.One more thing. I believe I know how to refill the U.S. Treasury coffers almost instantly. Simply make all politicians pay their taxes.Steve

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

The full impact of the recession has not yet been felt around the world. I would say a recovery will not occur anytime sooner than June 2010, and I think I am being optimistic.

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

Geroge,I am glad to hear the optimism coming out of Davos and would love to see the GDP start to increase again in early 2010, but part of me feels the global challenges we face are bigger than we are currently comprehending. I will keep my fingers crossed for 2010, but feel it will be more like 2011.Aaron

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

George, I apologize for the misspell of your name in my comment.

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

George, I apologize for the misspell of your name in my comment.

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

That's a bit optimistic thinking and I hope the recession ends soon.

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

George I have just starting reading your latest findings, and although I agree with Aaron that the recession, if we can call it that, feels more like a depression will end by the end of 2011. I feel Europe will take a turn for the worse, and that the USA will come back on top, slowly but surely, although I would have to say that I am sure inflation will take place and that those people that have saved money better put into shares of raw materials such as gold, metals, oil... something which the world will always have demand for and which has fallen out of proportion in price since the shock of the depression. Everyone seems to be pointing the finger at the bankers and wall street, who are partially to blame, but also the people that took up loans and borrowed money from the bank and were unable to pay their mortgage. I wonder whether or not you agree with me. If you have any other thoughts I would be happy and interested to hear them.

re: Informal Davos poll has recession ending in April, 2010

While the question of positive GDP is of passing interest, I wonder if the better question might be "what will the business and industrial landscape look like when GDP growth returns?"My suspicion is that too many look at a return to growth representing a return to normal. What is normal now, in a world of permanently excessive leverage, lower expenditure on large purchases, and higher unemployment.