European Cross-Channel Retail Sales Forecast, 2015 To 2020: Measuring The Influence Of Your Digital Assets Offline

Michelle Beeson

Europe's eBusiness professionals are increasingly focused on their digital presence, and with good reason. Digital touchpoints are feeding into almost every stage of the customer life-cycle. For many retailers over half of all online traffic comes from mobile devices, like smartphones - yet, smartphone conversion rates are considerably lower. Initially this may appear as a cause for concern. But Forrester’s updated European Cross-Channel Retail Sales Forecast sheds a different light on this phenomenon by quantifying the influence of digital touchpoints, including mobile, on overall sales, both online and offline.

eBusiness leaders must consider their digital assets as part of the whole customer-lifecycle, rather than simply channel by channel. Digital touchpoints have a significant influence beyond online sales. In fact, by 2020, Forrester forecasts that digital will influence 53% of total retail sales in EU-7, or €947 billion, including a combination of online sales and offline sales influenced by online research.

Key takeaways from the updated cross-channel retail sales forecast published today include:

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The Cross-Border eCommerce Opportunity Unfolds

Zia Daniell Wigder

In last year’s global eCommerce predictions report, we wrote that in 2015, cross-border eCommerce would become "more seamless and less apparent to shoppers". We’ve started to embark on this path: Today consumers around the world have access to growing selection of products as more retailers make their offerings available to shoppers in other countries. My colleague Michelle Beeson recently documented that cross-border sales in Europe alone will reach €40 billion by 2018.

Retailers that haven’t yet started to ship cross-border—and those that have only dipped their toes in the water—now have a variety of different solution providers that can help them take their brands into new markets. Analyst Lily Varon and I just published a report that looks at the trends and leading vendors in this space with a focus on solutions targeted at US-based merchants. It’s now common to see retailers working with different partners including:

International parcel carriers. A number of retailers elect to manage their international shipping options directly with an international carrier such as UPS or FedEx. In some cases, a cross-border option is an extension of the existing relationship between the merchant and the carrier; in others, merchants will seek out a new partner specifically to help with cross-border shipments.

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Millennial Shopping Experience Series: A Stroll Down Fifth Ave: Digital? Yes. Helpful? Not so much.

Patti Freeman Evans

Omnichannel retailing is a ubiquitous initiative among retailers today.  It's ambitious, necessary and very challenging.  Each channel reinforces the others and Adam Silverman's digital store work is great stuff advancing the thinking around how retailers are bringing new digital tech into the store environment, putting into customer and store associate hands to drive value.  He writes about it in a recent doc: The Future of the Digital Store.  And, two millennials on our team tested out some digital store experiences recently.   Here is the second in the millennials shopping experience blog series, this one by Laura Naparstek and Diana Gold.

On a recent afternoon, we took a walk down NYC’s Fifth Avenue to discover that many retailers are not always getting the in-store tech game right. This area of Manhattan is like an upscale mall where retailers experiment and test new in-store innovations; however, the technology we saw did little to reduce friction. Many retailers’ in-store tools were cosmetic—or broken.

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Which Banks Lead In Mobile: Forrester Benchmarks 41 Providers Around The World

Peter Wannemacher

Over the past seven years, mobile banking has gone from little more than an extension of online banking to what one digital banking executive now calls “the most important part of my job.” eBusiness and channel strategy professionals at banks are under intense pressure to differentiate by offering mobile features, content, and experiences that meet — or exceed — customers’ needs and expectations.

To help executives and digital leaders better understand where mobile banking is today — and where different banking providers stand in terms of their mobile offerings — Forrester conducts an annual mobile banking benchmark. This year, we evaluated 41 different banks from more than a dozen different countries across four continents. We recently published the findings in our 2015 Global Mobile Banking Benchmark report.

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How to make your company the most awesome place to work. #EVAR!!!

Martin Gill

We are constantly told that millennials are breaking the workplace rules. They refuse to work 9 to 5. They demand iPhones. They can’t work unless there’s a fridge full of beer and a pool table in the office. And with a growing war for digital talent, many digital leaders are setting their sights firmly on attracting the digital generation to their firms.

But a recent IBM study suggests an even more interesting conclusion. While the study largely agrees with every other conclusion on the desires of the millennial workforce, it also strongly pointed out that it’s not just “youngsters” that want autonomy, flexibility, empowerment, an awesome work environment that ignites their creativity and the feeling that what they do makes a difference.

It's everybody.

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It's Here...The Forrester Wave: B2B Commerce Suites, Q2 2015

Andy Hoar

I’m pleased to announce the release of "The Forrester Wave: B2B Commerce Suites, Q2 2015." Peter Sheldon and I last took a deep dive into the space in 2013, and since then we've seen B2B grow both in size and importance.  

However, today's B2B environment is more complex, crowded, and competitive than it was in 2013. B2B buyers now insist on an "Amazon-like" customer experience with real-time interaction, extensive price and inventory transparency, and robust guided selling.  B2B companies are still plagued by both internal and external channel conflict, which in many cases is impeding their forward progress with digital. And not only are offline companies moving online, but omnichannel competitors in adjacent categories and pure-play online sites are entering select markets as well. 

It was against this backdrop that Peter and I evaluated several top B2B Commerce vendors. We found once again that hybris (an SAP company), IBM, Oracle Commerce, and Intershop led the pack. But this time around, Insite joined their ranks.  NetSuite returned as a strong contender and was joined in that category by eBay Enterprise (Magento).  New to both the B2B commerce space and our Wave evaluation is CloudCraze, a company offering eCommerce as a native application within the Salesforce environment.  

As Peter Sheldon outlines in detail in his blog post:

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Amazon And The Rise Of eCommerce In Mexico

Zia Daniell Wigder

Today Amazon launched full force in Mexico with items ranging from baby products to electronics to sporting goods—for the past two years, the company has sold only eBooks on its localized site in the country. Why Mexico now? 

Mexico’s eCommerce market has risen on global brands’ priority lists. When it comes to eCommerce, Mexico is the India of Latin America: a small, early-stage market that has been overshadowed by rapid eCommerce growth in a much larger neighbor (Brazil in the case of Latin America, China in Asia). However, Mexico’s time has come. As Brazil’s economy has slowed to a halt, Mexico’s continues to grow—at the same time, the cost and complexity of operating in the Brazilian market has become apparent, leading many US and European brands to turn their attention north to the region’s second largest economy. In 2014 alone, Orange, Zara, Home Depot, Lowe’s and Williams-Sonoma all rolled out eCommerce offerings in Mexico.

Driven by a variety of different categories, the online retail market is growing rapidly. We often talk about eCommerce markets evolving in four phases (see graphic below). Mexico has very much followed this trajectory. Early-stage online purchases were largely in the travel sector—then as consumers started to make physical product purchases online, they gravitated to categories such as consumer electronics and computer hardware. Going forward, these categories will continue to grow but they will be augmented by later-stage categories like apparel, beauty and grocery. We expect Mexico’s total online retail market to grow by a CAGR of 19% between 2014-2019, reaching almost $7 billion by 2019.

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Announcing Forrester’s 2015 B2B Commerce Suites Wave

Peter Sheldon

Twenty months have passed since Forrester last published our Wave evaluation of the leading B2B commerce suite vendors. During that time much has changed. B2B eCommerce transactions in the US have grown 40% from $559b in 2013 to reach an estimated $780b by the end of 2015. Furthermore, 74% of B2B buyers now research and 30% now buy at least one-half of their work purchases online. Manufacturers, distributors and wholesalers alike are investing heavily in next generation enterprise B2B commerce technology to ensure they are delivering world-class online buying experiences that are able to scale for anticipated growth. As a result of this wave of investment, manufacturing and wholesale trade firms will spend more on commerce technology by the end of the decade than their peers in B2C retail.

As eBusiness teams look for solutions in the market, not only are they benchmarking their future state online buying experience against B2B peers like Grainger, but also against B2C leaders like Amazon and Wal-Mart. This means they need solutions with a best-in-class foundation of B2C features such as robust marketing, merchandising and experience management tools upon which unique B2B capabilities such as contract pricing, quotes pricing lists, eProcurement, product configuration and customization, guided selling, bulk order entry, dealer management, and account, contract, and budget management are then layered on top.

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Which Bank Has Emerged Top In Forrester’s 2015 Singapore Mobile Banking Functionality Benchmark?

Zhi-Ying Ng

Consumers in Asia Pacific have made the mobile mind shift—the expectation that they can get what they want in their immediate context and moments of need. This rings particularly true for consumers in Singapore, where smartphone penetration will reach a staggering 85% by the end of 2015. From researching products prior to purchase to booking of taxi services, consumers in Singapore are increasingly reaching into their pockets for their smartphones to get information and services in their mobile moments of need. And they have come to expect similar—if not better—information, digital services and customer experience from their financial institutions. It comes as no surprise then that competition in mobile banking has started to heat up in Singapore, with many banks enhancing their mobile capabilities to serve increasingly empowered customers. 

In our inaugural 2015 Singapore Mobile Banking Functionality Benchmark report, we have evaluated the retail mobile banking offerings of four banks in Singapore using 41 criteria. We found that:

  • Banks in Singapore offer accessibility and convenience, providing a wide range of mobile touchpoints where customers can quickly log into their accounts to carry out key tasks, either on the web or on the app.
  • Most banks offer services that matter most to customers including balance checking, transaction history, and basic money movements.
  • Leading banks (such as DBS Bank and OCBC Bank) differentiate by offering next-generation value-added features, either by using augmented reality technology to help home buyers with their purchase decisions or by using mobile image capability to pay bills.
  • Yet, there is room for improvement for banks when it comes to leveraging context and analytics to gain a deeper understanding of their customers, and they can do more to cross-sell additional banking products and services through mobile
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Online Retailers Go In Pursuit Of Europe's Valuable Cross-Border Consumers Worth €40 Billion By 2018

Michelle Beeson

A few weeks ago I was in Barcelona for the Global eCommerce Summit (GeS). One of the hot topics on the agenda, and during the coffee breaks, was internationalization. How best to evaluate and prioritize new market entry? How far do you need to go with localizing your website and the customer experience? How do you manage different market regulations and nuances?

The focus of these questions at GeS this year was the US and China. Yet, these questions also apply when considering market expansion in Europe. Forrester’s new Western European Online Cross-Border Retail Sales Forecast 2013 To 2018 shows the opportunity for eBusiness professionals, pursuing European expansion through cross-border sales, is growing. In fact, European online cross-border sales will reach €40 billion by 2018, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% over the five year forecast period.

Key takeaways from the forecast include:

  • The majority of online cross-border revenues will stay within Europe. European online consumers who buy outside their home market are more likely to do so from another European market rather than those outside Europe.
  • More retailers look for growth across borders, broadening the competitive landscape. The number of EU retailers who sell online across borders will grow by a CAGR of 12%, with 28% of European online retailers selling across borders by 2018. eBusiness pros at retailers of different sizes and categories are actively pursuing valuable cross-border shoppers and international sales to drive growth.
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