Inspired By Disruptors, Digital Banking Executives Will Innovate In 2015

Peter Wannemacher

In April, we outlined some of the most powerful forces reshaping digital banking. These include breathtaking growth in the role of mobile banking, unrelenting changes in technology, a crowded field of new competitors and digital disruptors, and rising expectations among customers and prospects.

Now we’ve taken a look at 2015 and predicted a dozen ways digital banking will change in the coming year.* At the center of these predictions is what Forrester calls the age of the customer: A 20-year business cycle in which the most successful enterprises reinvent themselves to systematically understand and serve increasingly powerful customers. To succeed in the age of the customer, digital bank executives must work with partners across their organizations to use business technology — which Forrester defines as technology, systems, and processes to win, serve, and retain customers — to deliver more compelling customer experiences to bank customers.   

You can read the full report with all of our digital banking predictions here. In the meantime, here’s a sample of two:

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What Will - And Won't - Happen In US eCommerce In 2015

Sucharita  Mulpuru
2015 is upon us: in Forrester’s just-released “Predictions 2015: US B2C And B2B eCommerce Players Will Struggle To Keep Up With Customers” report, we predict a number of key issues will challenge B2C eBusiness & Channel Strategy professionals in the coming year, while a number of new and exciting—but not pressing—topics will circulate. B2C eBusiness & channel strategy professionals ought to know which key issues to watch and which over-hyped trends to ignore.
 
What Will Happen: Flexible Fulfillment is the new term for omnichannel
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Global eCommerce Will Shift In 2015

Zia Daniell Wigder
We just published our predictions report for global eCommerce in which we identify 10 trends and discuss the impact they’ll have on the industry in 2015. We look at key commerce topics such as mobile and omnichannel and also address what we expect to see from some of the global eCommerce giants in terms of their international efforts in 2015.  In addition, we explore topics such as:
 
  • The B(R)IC markets will continue to attract attention, but smaller ones will also gain traction. Next year, we expect to see continued interest in Brazil, India and China (the political situation in Russia means it will be bumped down the list for many US and European brands). However, all of these markets will remain challenging for varying reasons and we expect that other emerging markets will gain traction with brands in 2015. Indeed, a look at the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index shows the BRIC markets falling well below other markets like Malaysia, Thailand, the UAE, Mexico and Colombia. Many eCommerce organizations won’t yet be able to justify the cost of launching direct-to-consumer sites in these smaller markets, but a handful of large global organizations will jump in to establish a brand for themselves before their counterparts do the same. Brands looking to sell cross-border will also turn their attention to smaller but fast-growing eCommerce markets.
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European Retailers Will Embrace Experimentation In 2015

Michelle Beeson
In the Age of the Customer, consumers are increasingly empowered. They decide where, when, and how they engage with organizations as they shop. European consumers are using multiple devices along their path to purchase and almost a quarter are buying online from outside their home market. This is a growth opportunity for retailers in larger eCommerce markets where online retail sales growth is slowing. These cross border buyers are a valuable target group and more likely to use mobile devices as they shop.
 
Yet researching and buying across multiple devices and touchpoints is not restricted to those that are happy to buy online from other countries. Across the board, consumers are using smartphones and tablets more frequently and across multiple contexts. Forrester’s updated mobile and tablet commerce forecast predicts that mobile and tablet commerce combined will account for 20% of online sales in 2014 increasing to 49% of online sales by 2018.
 
Mobile phones, smartphones in particular, bridge the gap between digital and physical shopping experiences. In 2015, European consumers’ increasingly multitouchpoint shopping behavior will heighten eBusiness professionals’ attention on the influence of digital across the customer journey and into stores.
 
Forrester believes that, for Europe, 2015 will be a year of experimentation. We predict that:
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US Online Holiday Sales Will Be Higher Than Ever, Despite Noticeable Challenges

Sucharita  Mulpuru

Forrester predicts that US online retail sales will reach $89 billion during the 2014 holiday shopping season. Shoppers turn to the Web during the time-pressed period between November and December to avoid crowds, lines, and, in many cases, higher prices. This holiday season, eCommerce will experience a boom in the number of online buyers, as the holiday season is a strong opportunity for new customer acquisition, and online wallet share, as seasoned online consumers are growing more comfortable and reliant on the practice. 

However, the expected growth is not as high as it could be due to a few unique constraints. A shorter than average holiday selling season, defined by the days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, limits shoppers in the time during which they can take advantage of the deep discounts they expect. Further, the expected increase in volume of online sales will push the already constrained carrier networks. Forrester estimates that nearly seven times more eCommerce packages are shipped daily in the two weeks before Christmas than daily between the months of January and October. Last year, FedEx and more notably UPS had a high number of late deliveries due to unprecedented package volume and poor weather that caused buildups at critical times. With the expected 13% increase in eCommerce sales in 2014 for the months of November and December as compared to the same period in 2013, retailers and consumers must recognize the risk of shipping delays.

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The Hits And Misses Of Apple Pay

Denée Carrington

Well, it’s finally here! After weeks of anticipation, Apple Pay launched on Monday. Apple also unveiled the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini 3, both with Touch ID sensors and an embedded secure element, which means Apple Pay can be used for in-app payments on those devices as well as the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. Apple Pay launches at a time when the US payments marketplace is in turmoil: The frequency and scale of security breaches are on the rise, issuers are beginning their migration to chip-enabled cards, and mobile payments are still quite nascent — even after significant investment and a range of competitors that have come and gone. Enter Apple Pay.

Just as new products and services from Apple have reshaped other industries, Apple Pay will reshape and set a new benchmark in consumer payments. There are many well-designed aspects in the initial version of Apple Pay — these are the Apple Pay “hits.” They include a context-aware, streamlined user experience; a breakthrough approach to security; unprecedented payments ecosystem cooperation; and great timing.

Although there is a lot to like about Apple Pay, this ship has holes. If not addressed, these “misses” — such as an inability to scale in-person payments, limited consumer and merchant value, and reduced consumer insight for marketers — will derail Apple Pay's ability to reach the mainstream, become the undisputed commerce platform of choice, and achieve Tim Cook’s vision of replacing the wallet.

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Key Metrics In Brazil’s eCommerce Market

Zia Daniell Wigder

In August and September of this year, we fielded a survey of online retailers in Brazil together with partner e-Commerce Brasil, an established industry organization. The goal was to better understand key performance indicators (KPIs) in Brazil as well as retailers’ priorities, challenges and the size and composition of eCommerce teams.

We received over 300 responses to our survey and have just published the first in our three-report series based on the survey. Retail eCommerce In Brazil: Key Metrics provides a look at over a dozen KPIs such as conversion rates, average order values, return rates as well as sales driven by smartphones and tablets. Our report analyzes the data by retailer type (web-only, traditional retailer or manufacturer selling direct) as well as by retailers’ total online revenues and tenure.

A few findings from the report:

Conversion rates in Brazil average 1.9%. In Brazil, we found conversion rates that varied quite a bit by type of retailer, with web-only retailers reporting the highest conversion rates. These rates tend to increase as markets evolve: Our previous research on The State of Retailing Online 2014: Key Metrics & Initiatives conducted with Shop.org yielded an average conversion rate of 2.7% for the US.

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The Mobile Mind Shift Is Transforming The Rules Of Customer Engagement

Katyayan Gupta

Mobile is drastically changing consumers’ behaviors and expectations. Forrester calls this phenomenon the mobile mind shift: the expectation that I can get what I want in my immediate context and moments of need. While the mobile mind shift is global in nature, it’s most profound here in Asia Pacific (AP): By 2020, 4.3 billion people globally will have a mobile subscription and more than half of them will be in AP. Organizations must take advantage of this and catapult their business to new heights — or risk becoming irrelevant in the eyes of these technology-empowered customers.

Forrester has developed a framework to help eBusiness and channel strategy professionals prepare their organizations for the mobile mind shift that we call the IDEA framework. This is a systematic approach to developing mobile experiences for customers relevant to their context and entails:

  1. (I)dentifying mobile moments and their context. A mobile moment is any time a person pulls out a mobile device to get what s/he wants immediately, in context. To understand your customers’ mobile moments, identify their needs, motivations, and context. Forrester recommends using customer journey maps for this step.
  2. (D)esigning the mobile engagement. Use these results as an input when designing the mobile engagement. The design should match your business objectives and your customer’s motivation in each moment. The key is to incorporate contextual information into the design language of the app so that it is easy for your customers to interact with you in their mobile moments.
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Amazon China Powers Up With Cross-Border eCommerce

Vanessa Zeng

On August 20, the company’s 10th anniversary in China, Amazon announced a strategic cooperation with the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) and Shanghai Information Investment. The agreement ensures the direct delivery of millions of products from Amazon sites across the globe to Chinese customers and will allow small and medium-size Chinese enterprises to conveniently export their products to Amazon customers around the world.

With the already fierce competition in China’s eCommerce market ramping up, eCommerce players are scrambling to find ways to increase their competitiveness. After 10 years of operating in China, Amazon has found its new growth opportunity: cross-border eCommerce. The overabundance of middlemen in China’s traditional retail industry has driven up retail prices, especially for imports — so online retailing of imported goods via a large-scale eCommerce platform confers tremendous price advantages. Amazon aims to provide the best cross-border shopping experience for all of its customers — both in China and around the world. Amazon will invest and locate its cross-border eCommerce platform in the SFTZ and establish a logistics and warehouse center there; goods from Amazon’s overseas sites and vendors will enter China through the SFTZ. Amazon has a few key competitive advantages over other cross-border eCommerce vendors by offering:

  • A vast selection of products at competitive prices. Amazon will introduce more than 13,000 product items from 27 countries and focus on four major categories: international boutique, fashion, smart devices, and kitchenware. Consumers will have a vast selection of imported goods from Amazon’s platform. The scale of Amazon’s global operations gives it an unassailable price advantage over both online vendors and traditional retailers.
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Three Things We've Learned About Emerging eCommerce Markets

Zia Daniell Wigder

As global eCommerce players like Alibaba and Rocket Internet have made headlines in recent weeks, there has been much focus on how eCommerce is emerging around the globe. While a lot of the media coverage has looked at the specific operations of these two players, it’s important to note some of the trends that are powering growth in emerging eCommerce markets. Below are two themes we discuss in our research — and one more that keeps rearing its head in the media:

  • If traditional retail stores don’t meet rising consumer demand, eCommerce will fill the void. In some emerging markets, the nature of the traditional retail market left consumers particularly ripe for eCommerce. In markets like China and India — which have highly fragmented traditional retail landscapes and few retailers with nationwide footprints — consumers in smaller cities have traditionally had little access to global brands. This situation leaves an opportunity wide open as the growing number of middle-class consumers seek out access to a greater variety of products. Even as eCommerce revenues have soared across Asia, few traditional retailers have been quick to embrace the new medium. Today, eCommerce in many countries across the region is almost completely dominated by Web-only players.
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