Posted by Doug Williams on November 9, 2009
Greetings and salutations!
(Quick pop trivia quiz: What 1988 movie is that line from, and which current TV actor said it? Answer below.)
Our new US Internet Access Forecast is complete, and I've just published a short report highlighting some of the key findings. In particular:
- Nearly 16 million new broadband subscribers will emerge over the next five years, but more than half of those will come in the next two years. Broadband service providers have 2 years before they face a severe drought in terms of revenue growth, and thus need to prepare now for the next stage of growth.
- Fiber to the home (FTTH) subscriptions will rise from 4% today to 10% of US online households. Verizon's bet on future-proofing its network by taking fiber all the way into the consumer's home will continue to pay off, but Verizon will continue to cannibalize its own DSL subscribers along the way.
- Consumers will migrate into faster broadband speed tiers. Some of this movement will come by choice as consumers engaged in high-bandwidth activities look for a better online experience. But some providers will force consumers into faster speed tiers simply because they have no interest in offering slower service.
- Dial-up goes gentle into that good night. Dramatic declines will continue over the next two years, after which the dial-up candle will continue to flicker and fade -- unless the access providers snuff it out themselves.
JupiterView clients will find more specifics in the report with regard to these subjects and some of the underlying data as well. As always, ForecastView clients have even greater access to the nuts-and-bolts of the forecast model, as well as further details by access platform and household demographics.
(Pop trivia answer: The movie was "Heathers," a classic yet very black comedy about high school life in suburban Ohio. The actor? Christian Slater.)