[Josh] You don't want to hear about the long taxi lines, check-in lines, lines for everything (130,000 people is just too many) or the crappy hotel room without high speed Internet (what is this, the 20th century?). You probably don't even want to hear how the best way to get around this spread out, jam-packed, foot-weary show is by rented bicycle.
You want to hear about Bill Gates' speech.
Sitting next to CBS' Joe Flaherty, the guy who deserves a huge share of the credit for HDTV (he told me it's been 25 years' work for him, almost), I see Gates edge out on the edge of the stage. Almost unnoticeable, except for the 30-foot image of his face.
This is followed by an imaginative digital home scenario involving a big screen in the kitchen with his kids artwork and personalized TV on it, a workplace with three big transparent screens that looks like a cockpit, and of course everything goes with him on his mobile phone wherever he goes. It's software that ties it all together. Just to make sure you know Microsoft has a vision for the future. Somehow this vision stuff never comes to pass in quite the seamless way it might appear. Ask Joe Flaherty.
OK, so now we get into the real demos. And the one thing I have to tell you I was struck by is just how derivative all the Microsoft demos are. Windows Vista, due out by year-end looks like an incredible piece of work, with transparent windows that you can flip through in 3D, but Microsoft chose to highlight the sidebar (very Google) and the "gadget" applets that live on it (a la Apple Widgets). The new Internet Explorer has tabs (how Firefox). We also got to see the new Windows Media Player and how it handles media (a step beyond iTunes). The MTV URGE music service, which Ted has written about, that also goes beyond iTunes. The new Vista Media Center PC, which can come in the form of a tiny little box with a DVD slot (like a Mac Mini). Little portable players that echo the interface on the big box, with video as well as music (and we all know what devices they're chasing).
Now I'm glossing over a bunch of stuff about VoIP and the Treo/Windows Mobile phone and of course Xbox 360. But you have to ask -- is this the future we want? Because make no mistake: By observing what others have done and doing it nearly as well or better, Microsoft will win. Windows Vista is better. It's going to be great for music and digital video, and the Xbox 360 connection is a big deal -- every new Xbox has the potential to extend Windows reach further into the TV.
Google is a threat to Microsoft. So is Apple. Anything that people interact with that isn't Microsoft gets Microsoft asking "can't we do that for you?" So you could pretty much predict that Microsoft would create their own versions of these experiences.
The chinks in the armor come when Microsoft extends itself out beyond the PC. I'm not convinced that all this stuff will work together well in the hands of a consumer of limited technical ability -- interoperability is still too hard. I'm also not convinced that Microsoft TV will evolve quickly enough to make telcos competitive in the TV market. And with Apple's lead on the iPod, it sure isn't clear that these Portable Media Centers can gain any significant share.
When Microsoft says it wants to put a shared interface on everything (and Bill Gates did say something pretty close to that), frankly, it scares me -- I'd prefer my innovation from more than one company. And when they say they'd like to take television and make it completely personal and portable, that scares me too -- I think it would undermine the business model for TV so severely that quality free programming might become hard to come by. But these visions of Microsoft aren't likely to come to pass, because they extend Microsoft's reach too far beyond the PC.
So, bottom line. Windows Vista wins. Xbox wins. Our PCs get better. But devices and media -- TV sets, portable devices, video -- remain stubbornly NOT dominated by a Microsoft designed and run digital home solution. Which is good for innovation.
