[Ted] The next-gen DVD format battle took a left turn when LG abandoned its Blu-Ray-only player plans and announced a dual-format player for shipment in November. Coupled with HP’s support for both formats and Samsung’s plans to build dual-format drives, it don't take no rocket scientist to see that:
- Single-format players will lose out to dual-format players in the living room. Consumers ain't stupid -- they won't buy a player that can only play some of the high-def discs on the shelf. Only Sony and Toshiba will lose out as they stick doggedly to their single-format drives. LG and Samsung will win, especially if they build players with 1080p and other video geek must-haves.
- Led by HP, the PC industry will figure out that drives that play both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs are better in media-centric machines.
- The Playstation 3 versus Xbox 360 battle will take on new importance for studios. It’s clear that Sony’s PS3 will play only Blu-ray discs and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 add-on drive will play only HD DVD discs. With many of these boxes hooked to HDTVs, it an important market for studios. And that means dual-format studios like Warner will benefit as they can support both.
But does that mean both formats will flourish as consumers leap with joy over HD titles? 'Fraid not, Warner Bros. Prepared to be disappointed as consumers continue to lollygag, wondering if the next-gen benefits are worth the juice. At the risk of repeating myself [note: you’ll have to register and buy that analysis], here’s why the next-gen DVD market will *not* explode into being:
- Consumers won’t jump to buy the Starwars trilogy again. Today’s DVDs look great on HDTVs. Yes, high-def formats look *much* better, but (I believe that) most consumers will only buy new titles in high-def.
- Portable video viewing don’t need no stinkin’ HD. Mobile video would appear to be one of the hot topics driving Microsoft and Intel to support HD DVD over Blu-ray. Yeah, only the problem with that guy is that video on PCs and mobile devices doesn't benefit from HD. (Thanks to Barbara Parks, author of the Junie B. Jones series, for that turn of phrase.) While video on the iPod or on the PC is way cool, it doesn’t benefit from HD much. Why? ‘Cuz the screen’s too small.
- Titles will lag players, not the other way around. Warner Bros. has already decided to push back and scale back its launch. Other studios will take a go-slow approach to make sure the technology works and the demand is there. To a studio, the risk of a flawed technology is very high (as Sony BMG recently learned to its chagrin).
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