The End Of Analog TV

[Josh] Finally, both houses of Congress have passed the law that mandates the end of over-the-air analog TV broadcasts. Date certain: Feburary 17, 2009. The confusion has already begun, based on what I read on blog comments around the Web. So to be clear, here's what this doesn't mean:

• If you have cable or satellite (or IPTV), this means nothing to you. Your set-top box will continue to support your analog TV.
• This doesn't affect station and network operations, which are mostly going digital anyway. It only affects their over-the-air transmitters.
• This has no effect at all on over-the-air digital transmissions, which are pretty much universal for all stations now (and used by less than 10% of HDTV owners, based on our surveys).

Who this affects are: people who have an analog TV and no cable or satellite. The government is making digital-to-analog converters available for those with low incomes in this group. But just because a government benefit is available, doesn't mean people will use it (look at all those people who couldn't figure out how to sign up for the Medicare drug benefit.) Just for fun, I'm whipping out our crystal ball and pointing it at February 2009. And I see turmoil. Here's who loses -- and what will happen:

• Stores stop selling sub-$300 TVs. With the over-the-air digital tuner built-in, TV costs will go up at least $50. And that's for a crappy analog TV with digital reception -- you don't get an HDTV picture or even an EDTV picture at that price. This effect happen even before 2009, as the FCC tuner mandate kicks in. So look for a lot of unhappy store owners and shoppers who can no longer get cheap TVs.
• Widespread consumer confusion. Every article written in the next 3 years about this will have errors in it. It's just too hard to explain that your TV will stop working, except if you have cable, and that you can get a converter, but you have to have a means test to prove you can get it subsidized, and then your antenna has to get pointed to a new tower, and . . . well, you get the idea.
• Democrats get cold feet. So who's going to suffer? People who have old TVs, won't buy a new one, don't have cable, don't have satellite, and don't have the technical capability to hook up an adapter. Most of these people will be older, poorer, or minorities. When we wrote about this a couple of years ago, we predicted the "little old lady march on Washington." So expect this downtrodden group to get a champion -- most likely a Democrat in a district with lots of low-income, elderly constituents. Maybe the TV makers like Sony, Panasonic, RCA, and Sharp who are selling so many big TVs now should start a fund to hook up converters for these folks -- a "meals on wheels" for video.

What do you think will happen? Send us a comment.

Comments

[Stefan Weiß]

Nothing will happen until early February 2009. People won't believe and won't bother. After then until late February 2009 people will run around like headless chicken and will buy set-top boxes for about $50 (or more during these weeks). They will ask their neighbour's son how to install. Then they will live happily ever after.

That is what happened here in Germany last year.