This week, the National Retail Federation (NRF) held its 102nd Annual Convention and EXPO —Retail's Big Show 2013. Attendees gathered from around the world to demo products and services and exchange ideas about the future of retail, including mobile payments. Mobile payments have captured the attention and imagination of industry insiders, venture capital investors, and innovators. Although retailer investment and consumer adoption have been nascent to date, we see that changing. Forrester forecasts that US mobile payments will reach $90B in 2017, a 48% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the $12.8B spent in 2012.

In my new report out today, titled “US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017”, I outline the growth drivers and inhibitors for the three mobile payments categories: mobile proximity, or in-store payments; mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) and remittances; and mobile remote commerce, or mCommerce. Here are the key takeaways:

• Mobile payments adoption will be fueled by unprecedented growth in proximity payments. Mobile proximity payments are currently the smallest category within mobile payments, but we expect it to be the fastest growing. Proximity payments will reach $41B, making up nearly half of all mobile payments in 2017. Lower barriers to adoption, increased convenience, and early entrants striving for scale will be important drivers of growth.

In my coverage as Forrester’s new payments analyst, I'll serve consumer product strategists who accept or facilitate payments as they create, navigate, and capitalize on digital disruption within payments.

We are in the early stages of unprecedented innovation and transformation of the consumer payments industry, and emergence of a digital wallet marketplace is the next act. The definition of a digital wallet continues to evolve as innovations come to market, and the term is sometimes used synonymously with “mobile payment.” However, there are significant differences. Forrester defines a digital wallet as:

A digital service — accessed via the web or a mobile application — that authorizes payment transactions from one or more payment sources and facilitates other commerce-related features, such as offers, coupons, loyalty rewards, electronic receipts, and product information.

As new wallets are introduced into the market, we will see consumers and merchants accelerate their trial and adoption. Yesterday, Google announced a new cloud-based version of their digital wallet that intends to address many of impediments associated with their first version.  In my new report out today, titled “Why The Digital Wallet Wars Matter," I frame the emerging digital wallet landscape, provide a profile of early adopters and how to capture their attention, and outline which wallets will ultimately win in the marketplace. Here are the key takeaways: