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Posted by David Card on April 20, 2009
[Posted by David Card]
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The Advertising Age headline reads “Future May Be Brighter, but It’s Apocalypse Now.”
CBS, the number one TV network, saw its ad revenues decline
13% in 2008, and that was before the recession really took hold. CBS’s radio
business was down 12%. The former home of “must-see TV,” NBC had two shows in
the top 20 for the week of March 30, and they were both ER. Unfortunately they
were the series finale and a retrospective. NBC will be replacing its 10PM
line-up with a Jay Leno strip because it’s cheaper than producing dramas and
It’s one thing when the Rocky Mountain News stops printing.
But the venerable New York Times might have trouble making its debt payments,
and is threatening to shut down the Boston Globe if its unions don’t cave.
Meanwhile, Oxbridge Communications’ Mediafinder says that 335 magazines
launched in North America
The most recent Forrester advertising forecast is the
Jupiter model from December (we're updating it as I type). We were projecting
negative five-year growth for US “off-line” -- i.e., not online or digital --
advertising as a whole. The total spending on print and radio will be down
double digits in 2013 versus 2008. TV will be down double digits this year, but
will eventually start to grow again, probably in 2011.
Clearly, ad-based media companies are scrambling.
But what does this mean for marketers?
I’d like to hear what you think. Stay tuned: I’m working on
a series of reports on how marketers should handle the media meltdown. And
check out my “Future of Media” panel at Forrester’s Marketing Forum in
Orlando this week