Amazon Kindle launches globally, sort of

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research or follow me on twitter)

Today, Amazon have launched a new Kindle that they are marketing internationally. Prior Kindle models were limited to use in the US. Key details:

• Big promotion in the centre of the front page of Amazon sites in the UK, France, Germany and Japan.
• Only for sale on Amazon.com and priced in USD at $279 (i.e. a $20 mark-up over existing Kindle2). Promotions above have links to Amazon's US site to buy.
• Books are also for sale only via Amazon.com and are also priced in USD (at least for now).
• This is the first Kindle that uses a GSM-standard mobile phone radio -- rather than CDMA -- for wireless downloading of books, sync of reading position with other Kindles and the iPhone Kindle app (i.e. to drive Amazon's Whispersync consumer cloud service).
• Uses AT&T's mobile network and AT&T's global mobile roaming partners for Whispersync.
• When outside the US, Kindle owners pay an additional charge for each book downloaded, currently USD1.99 per download. I imagine this also includes downloading PDFs via the email to Kindle conversion process and downloading small items like blogs or newspapers.

I'm frankly astonished that Amazon is marketing the above product internationally so strongly. Instead, it looks like a great fit for US residents who want to own a Kindle that works both in the US and when they travel abroad. Or, Amazon could have chosen a much softer and lower key international promotion on their various global sites.

For European or Japanese residents there are multiple barriers to adoption and use of this Kindle, which will cause serious issues for Amazon's famed customer service reputation: As everything is currently priced in dollars, consumers outside the US will likely hit additional credit card fees when they buy; import of the Kindle will likely incur significant customs charges; and the per download roaming fee will rapidly add up to a significant sum given it hits on every newspaper or book download.

So, why have Amazon chosen to market this product so significantly on their various non-US websites today, ahead of the launch of international Kindle stores priced in local currencies?

I suspect this indicates that Amazon has failed to secure the international mobile operator partners it needs to offer Whispersync without per use fees, and by making such a big deal of this launch internationally Amazon hopes this will put pressure back on those partners to come back to the table. But if so, then why has the Kindle iPhone app not also been launched on those countries' Apple App Store's for use on the iPhone? The iPhone version wouldn't have those same data roaming costs when a consumer is in their home country of the UK, France etc. as iPhones are sold with inclusive mobile data. Other thoughts? Please comment below.

Vodafone 360 is a Major Strategic Play for Handsets & Mobile Internet

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research or follow me on twitter)

Vodafone has just launched a major new initiative called Vodafone 360 (release, with the new 360.com website to follow). Key points:

• Integration with social networks for an online address book and content sharing.
• Combination mobile handset + 360.com cloud service strategy.
• Single sign-on for customers or non-Vodafone customers. 360.com website available to both.
• Deep handset integration: two new Linux LIMO handsets with "full fat" experience (made by Samsung). Lesser version pre-loaded onto a number of Symbian Series 60 handsets, downloads and other versions available for around 100 handsets.
• Also includes an App store, new mobile web portal, music service, and maps service.

I'm working on a quicktake report. But this is such a major initiative with wide ranging scope, that I'm extremely curious in what others think? Specifically:

• How well positioned are operators to implement a social strategy with such deep handset integration, compared with handset makers, or the Internet social networks themselves?
• Was Nokia's OVI initiative a lightning rod that distracted many from other handset maker initiatives in this space? (Like Motorola's Motoblur, HTC Sense, Google & Android, Microsoft Myphone, or Apple's MobileMe?)
• Is 360 a better umbrella name than "Vodafone Live!" ?
• Thoughts on how well 360 fits with Vodafone's new corporate tag line, "Power to you" ?

Comment below! I'm here and will reply as appropriate.

Palm's Need to Communicate Its Differentiation

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research or follow me on twitter)

Background - Today Palm announces the first major operator partner for its European strategy with an O2 partnership.

Back in January, when Palm unveiled the Palm Pre and its new Web OS platform, Palm's innovation was clearly differentiated and ahead of the competition. Palm had pulled a rabbit from the hat. The Pre integrated social networks with its 'Synergy' interface in an extremely modern overall touch user interface. The hardware was different too: The Pre offered wire-free charging with the add-on Touchstone and managed to combine both a capacitive (multi)touch screen with a QWERTY keyboard in a phone the same size as the iPhone.

Nine months is a long time in mobile.

Now, most of the key Internet phone makers have launched social network integration (most notably Motorola with Motoblur on the Cliq/Dext; HTC's Sense UI on Android and Windows Mobile; and INQ Mobile's various models; and others about to announce plus operators). Offering a capacitive touch screen is now table stakes for a high end Internet phone.

Palm's product strategy was smart when put in place several years ago. Unfortunately, others thought the same way. This is a key challenge for developing a product strategy that takes several years to move from inception to launch. How do you stay ahead of the game when you're stuck behind the fog of the product strategy war? (It's a great reason to use research firms to develop that strategy).

Now, Palm does retain differentiation, but mostly in how the Palm Pre does what it does. Palm has to work hard to communicate that its execution is different.

Today's announcement of an exclusive deal with O2 in various European countries will help. As a small firm, with a new launch product, Palm will benefit from the co-marketing support to evangelize its product differentiation.

Palm's other key challenge is how to maintain the r&d spend needed to ensure its next products are more innovative than its much larger competitors, while shipping significantly less handsets than any of them every quarter.

For more insights into why so many firms are integrating social computing and social networking into mobile handsets, see this report: How Mobile Handsets Will Deliver 24x7 Social Computing.

For analysis of the Internet phone category and how Palm compares with the other handset makers please read this key report: The "Smartphone" Is Dead: Long Live Smart Phones And Smart Gadgets

Nokia Breaks with the Past: N900 Linux Maemo Phone Announced

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research or follow me on twitter)

The new N900 is a departure from Nokia's regular evolutionary extensions to the Nokia handset portfolio that build on previous models. It's the first big reaction to the many new entrants that have arrived in the high end Internet phone market over the last two years (Google's Android, Apple, Palm's Pre etc.).

While the Nokia N97 that launched earlier this year used a variant of the same software used in every high end Nokia Internet phone for over five years -- Symbian Series 60 -- the N900 does not. For the first time, Nokia is launching a high end Internet phone using Linux. And note, The N900 is using Maemo, and not Android.

Nokia isn't positioning the N900 as a "smartphone". This is smart. Read why here: The "Smartphone" Is Dead: Long Live Smart Phones And Smart Gadgets.

This is a significant strategic play for Nokia as I warned clients was coming last year. I've seen the N900 and held it in my hands. It's impressive. But is it enough to help Nokia re-gain mindshare? Comment below! Or, contact me via the Forrester inquiry team (clients) or press office (media).

Updated - We've published a report analysing this:
Nokia Begins The Fight Back With The N900

Why Nokia is Launching a Netbook

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research)

Today, Nokia announces its first netbook, called the Nokia Booklet 3G (press release, Nokia blog post). Like all netbooks, the Nokia Booklet 3G is essentially a miniature laptop PC and has more capability in common with the PC than with handheld devices like mobile phones. Despite misinformed advance speculation, the Booklet will run Windows and has an impressive claimed battery life of 12 hours.

In the flesh, the Booklet 3G has a neat modern design and a modern metallic appearance case. The screen and keyboard are both relatively large and well-proportioned.

Mobile operators are increasingly looking to extend their early successes in the mobile broadband market. This is the Booklet's key differentiator: unlike almost all other netbooks, Nokia's has an internal mobile broadband card with a SIM slot. Other netbooks rely on external USB mobile broadband modems for Internet access. The presence of this internal wireless modem is why the Booklet 3G is a natural extension to Nokia's traditional phone handset product range.

Unlike most of Nokia's key phone handset rivals -- such as Samsung, LG, Apple -- Nokia does not sell laptops today, and so is in danger of being outflanked by other handset makers that do offer laptops. Nokia will use the Booklet to support their operator customers and discourage them from taking rival handset makers' netbooks.

Nokia's challenge with the Booklet 3G will be how to communicate the offering in the market. Over the last couple of months Nokia has had to rebut repeated rumours which are at odds with its current strategy. The name of this netbook, the "Booklet" makes the device sound more like a MID or Internet tablet running a custom version of Linux, rather than the contemporary Windows netbook PC that is the Booklet. Additionally, Nokia now faces new and different competitors for the Booklet that are strong in the laptop PC space such as Dell, HP and Sony that are weak or non-existent players in mobile phones.

Nokia's first Netbook deserves to do well. But Nokia must work hard to gain traction in this new product category.

Further reading:-

Refining Mobile Broadband Strategy In The Netbook Era

The Mobile Broadband Future Tactics to Position On-the-Go Mobile Broadband for PCs

24x7 People and the Rise of 24x7 Social Computing

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research)

Too many firms are building their mobile strategies as a mere extension of the PC Internet, and are missing out on what's now possible when mobile, but which remains impossible using a PC.

A PC is always going to be limited to deliver a part time Internet experience. They are too bulky, too heavy, too power hungry, and increasingly too dependent on the assumption that a super fast fixed-quality broadband connection is present to be something that people will have with them all of the time 24x7. If a PC evolved to be suitable for 24x7 use it wouldn't be a PC anymore.

Today's Internet mobiles offer people that 24x7 digital life. People are becoming connected 24x7 through their Internet phones and that must transform the strategies that firms adopt. Mobile enables a 24x7 relationship between brands and consumers. Mobile enables people to interact with websites 24x7, both to consume -- read and browse -- and to contribute. Mobile opens up new business models through the fusion of location awareness and a 24x7 Internet-connected device.

The first and clearest example of this new world is what's happening with social computing. People are now able to lurk on Facebook or Bebo at anytime, or post photos onto Flickr that are taggged with where they were taken (as well as when).

Read this new report for more on 24x7 people:-
How Mobile Handsets Will Deliver 24x7 Social Computing

I'll be developing this theme in future reports this year.

Mobile App Stores Represent the new Battleground

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research)

At MWC, multiple companies have launched mobile application stores that seek to build upon Apple's iPhone success (Microsoft, Nokia, Orange, mPortico, Surfkitchen, Adtonic, PocketGear and others). These join existing announced app stores (including RIM, Google Android, Palm).

These are more than simple me-too initiatives.

Mobile app stores are not new. Palm, Handango and even Nokia with their Download! service pre-date Apple. Like the iPod, Apple was a follower -- rather than first mover -- that succeeded due to terrific execution and a clear strategy and market position. Apple benefits from the ease of commercial iPhone application distribution. Developers now prosper in a virtuous circle:

• iPhone application store is easy to use on phone or PC. It offers consumers reviews, user ratings, reliable download & install and low price points. Developers benefit from reliable content protection.
• Developers sell more applications and so prioritise more r&d for iPhone over other phones. This leads to a greater catalogue of applications.
• The greater wealth of third party support increases the benefit for consumers of owning an iPhone, thus driving iPhone sales.
• A greater installed base of iPhones increases the audience of potential application buyers, leading to increased application sales.

To succeed, owners much ensure that their store's convenience to consumers is high. Superb execution will be critical.

Amazon's Kindle Strategy & the Mobile/Wireless Market

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research)

Updated Tuesday, February 10 - Apologies to readers for a draft post ending up live on the site. The version below is now the correct, finished, version. Because of the publishing problem that hit me yesterday here, I posted this entry on my personal blog first. You may wish to subscribe to that blog as well although it normally has a different focus.

Today, Amazon announced a new Kindle, as the company continues its transformation from a retailer of physical goods to one that is a major digital content (music, books, video) and Internet service (e.g. S3) company.

Few notes:

Amazon's strategy is extremely US-centric, unlike their traditional retail reach. By choosing to include a US-specific mobile phone radio under the bonnet -- the so-called Whispernet that is used to download books without a PC -- Amazon limit their global presence. If Amazon wished to create a foundation for a global strategy then Amazon, like Apple, should have used a GSM/UMTS mobile phone radio. Now, Amazon must release different hardware if they want to offer Kindle in Europe or most of Asia. For consumers, this decision decision hits the product's convenience: Kindle will only download books in the US, and in the future perhaps a few select countries that happen to use the same mobile technology, such as South Korea and parts of South America.

Kindle demonstrates how mobile strategy is not just a telco thing. Mobile is like the Internet, every company should have a vision for where they are going and how to embrace, partner, or compete, with the mobile market and players.

Amazon has become a device company, and is no longer purely a content play. Kindle is a combined content / hardware business models. What Amazon is selling is content: The latest books, supplied for the relatively low cost of $9.99 for bestsellers. But to sell that content they have become a device company.

Surprisingly, Amazon have not leveraged other ebook companies that they own. Mobipocket supplies both free ebook software and sells ebooks protected by DRM. But to date, Kindle ebooks are not compatible with Mobipocket software. If Amazon does offer ebooks on mobile phones, which was reported on Friday before the Kindle announcement, then Mobipocket will be a core part of Amazon's toolbox. Syncing reading position between multiple devices -- Whispersync, announced today -- will certainly help Amazon in offering a great complementary service, i.e. a consumer will be able to use both Kindle and a mobile phone in tandem. Additionally Amazon own Booksurge, which is a an electronic self-publishing company, and yet are not fully exploiting Booksurge via Kindle.

Amazon's exclusive on a new Stephen King story will test the robustness of Kindle's DRM content protection. As the content is only available on Kindle, if it suddenly appears online on one of the piracy websites then that DRM has been broken. It will only take one person to break the DRM for numerous people to download a pirated version.

Forecasting Macworld & CES

Posted by Ian Fogg

The usual predictions, rumours, hype, scaremongering are all in full force this week for the two early January shows. Pundits speculate on what will be announced ahead, and then attempt to retro-fit what products are launched into their world view. It's a dangerous game, and not only because so much of what is written is wrong, and worse, is proven wrong within hours of going online.

 

Much speculation before and during the event has been on the impact of the economy on new products to be announced. The reality is that the major product launches we are seeing now were on final approach when the economy hit the rocks last autumn. Product managers have had time to make small tweaks, or make brave last minute no-go decisions, but not to build from scratch for the 2009 world.

 

This deafening noise of speculation and numerous launches obscures the key strategies with which the most successful companies operate. Too much writing focuses on tactics, such as the specifics of individual new products. But very launches are really ground-breaking. This is why so much media attention focuses on Apple: It's their ability to do something radical and apparently revolutionary which delights headline writers.

 

We'll see later today what Apple launches.

 

Apple has repeatedly demonstrated that it is pursuing the long game. Each individual product meets a need and looks to be profitable but simultaneously ties into other parts of Apple's product range to together move the company forward. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. There are few companies for which that is true.

 

My forecast: Half of peoples' predictions for new Apple products will be completely wrong, a further third will happen but months or years later, and no more than one fifth of the product guesses will come true this week. The most innovative Apple products will come from the spoofers.

NokiaWorld: Distracted by the N97 Flagship

by Ian Fogg

Everyone appears to have spent the last week discussing Nokia's new flagship N97 phone. But it's far from the most significant announcement.

Why? The N97 will be premium priced and won't be the only handset to feature a touch screen from Nokia, or the new 5th Edition Series 60 Symbian OS.  The N97 isn't due to ship until mid-2009 by which time it will face improved competition. The current models that commentators have compared it with in the last week are a red herring. Against mid-2009 rival handsets the N97 will look less strong.

The N97 is important as a part of a bolder overall strategy by Nokia and is not the entire story in itself.

The mid-range will be the new mobile Internet battleground in 2009:

Samsung (especially), LG, SonyEricsson and Motorola are already pressing into Nokia's traditional mid range strength. At some point, Apple will extend the iPhone range with lower priced models as it did in the past with the iPod Mini, Shuffle and Nano. This will open a new front onto Nokia's heartlands. RIM is already targeting consumers with cheap'ish Curve's and consumer-focused marketing.

Nokia clearly understands its mid-range mobile Internet strategy will be critical. It's making numerous moves in this area already. Announcements Nokia has made over the last few months focused on mid-range mobile data:-

• Email strategy targets mainstream Series 40 handsets. By specifically enabling all Series 40 phones -- ie non smartphone -- handsets, Nokia places email in the hands of virtually its entire customer base. And, with Nokia Messaging, intended to be offered with an operator partner, that Series 40 email is a push email offering. Mail on Ovi by contrast is available to all for free. Nokia is also adding a full webmail interface to make Ovi mail a viable alternative to consumers' existing email.
• The first 5th edition touchscreen Nokia phone is mid-market. The 5800 handset was announced in early October. The 5800 features a four contact social media widget on the home screen but it's less feature rich than the N97. The 5800 is already shipping. The N97 will raise the profile of the software platform and encourage developer adoption, which supports Nokia's mid-market mobile Internet phones as well as the high end.
• Nokia has launched mobile data services on low cost emerging market handsets. See Nokia Life Tools and the main announcement of low cost mobile data handsets and emerging market email.
• Nokia is pushing smartphones into mid-range price points already on the quiet. Announced earlier in the year, the 5320 XpressMusic is a full S60 smartphone offered for just Euro220 unsubsidised. The 6210 Navigator is a similarly S60 smartphone in plain clothes without N or E Series branding at a keen price.
• Nokia has blurred smartphone distinctions with the S40 6260 slide . The November-announced 6260 packs a 5Mp camera, HSPA 3.5g data, music playback, Ovi Maps and other former smartphone characteristics. Note also the new S40 developer kit offers a webkit-based browser, which is the same component used in S60 phones' web browser and by the iPhone's web browser.

The smartphone is dead. All phones are smart now. Long live the smartphone!

And, that makes the mid range the mobile Internet battleground for 2009. Nokia is already marshalling its forces for the onslaught from its new rivals.