Not an IT/BT recession

I was at a Forrester event on Wednesday with 50 $1B+ CIOs and Enterprise Architects. When I asked the group whether they thought we were in a recession, three fifth's said "yes." Then I asked whether they thought their tech budgets would be cut this year-- one fourth said "yes." And one smart ass CIO said, "Hey my budget always gets cut -- nothing will be different about this year."

What it means:  While Forrester has lowered its estimates of tech spending increase for 2008 from 6% to 3%, the climate doesn't feel cold for IT/Business Technology. Projects are moving ahead, new Services-Oriented Architecture re-builds are in flight, green IT/BT data centers are breaking ground, server upgrades continue apace. So much fat was extracted from corporate technology teams in the 2001-2003 IT depression that now they are performing with high ROI and high efficiency -- which may be the best buffer from meltdown in 2008.

Is a secular recession here? I think the answer is "yes." For tech, I believe it will be a mild slowdown.

What do you think? IT/BT recession or not?

Comments

[Laurie Orlov]

With all of the various predictions and trends, one of my favorite ways of tracking whether tech is in a recession: use the keyword 'programmer' on Monster.com and careerbuilder.com (5000, 9500 respectively). Then wait a month and do it again. During the last downturn, those numbers dropped below 100.

Maybe there will be a recession in other areas, but there is enough optimism and need in the tech world to keep hiring, at least for now.