Expectations For Mobile World Congress 2016

Dan Bieler

The last year has flown by: In just a few weeks the Mobile World Congress (MWC) is on again. So what can we expect from the leading global get-together of mobile-heads this year? In my view there will be:

  • Less hype concerning mobile device launches. The leading smartphone and tablet providers will announce or showcase new models of established product lines, including more wearables and watches, like Samsung’s Galaxy S7, Sony’s Xperia Z6, LG’s G5, Huawei’s P9, HTC’s One M10, and Microsoft’s Surface Phone as well as newcomers like the Nextbit Robin or the OnePlus 2 Mini. Yet, I expect more of an evolution than a revolution. Blackberry might provide more insights into its future as device manufacturer beyond the Priv. Both Apple and Google will announce their upcoming devices at their own respective events, not at MWC. I am interested to see which way the pendulum is swinging: device commoditization or real new innovation. I expect the former.
  • Increasingly intertwined messaging of big data and IoT vendors. Big data will play an important part in most IoT solutions. Ultimately, IoT is not really about things but rather about data. Mobile-connected objects create scale and various channels for sensor data that flows back and forth. I will listen to how the messaging for front-end, customer-facing and back-end operational activities are emerging among IoT vendors like Nokia, Telstra, GE, Ericsson, and Salesforce but also among firms like ABB and John Deere. I expect AI and machine-learning to play a growing role for big data and IoT initiatives.
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Welcome To The Age Of Innovation - Perspectives On CES 2016

Nigel Fenwick

Presenting and hosting a panel on digital transformation at this year's CES gave me the opportunity to wander the 2 million square feet of exhibit space and assimilate some of the changes coming our way:

Welcome To The Age Of Invention. For me, the most exciting aspect of CES is the sheer volume of innovative, inventive startups that are tapping into the power of sensor-enabled technology to create new products and services. Many of these companies are funded through crowdfunding platforms like Kickstartergofundme and indiegogo. The pace of innovation will accelerate as high-school kids use their fertile imaginations to tap into the technology that’s now second nature to them.

The Internet Of Things Will Fuel Rapid Digital Transformation. Based on the sheer volume of internet connected devices coming on the market this year, we’re going to see an explosion in the Internet Of Things (IoT). Everything – from wearables that track everything from your health and fitness to the temperature of a newborn child, and in-home appliances that interconnect to create a home environment tailored to your preferences – everything is now designed with sensors that collect data that's used to deliver better customer outcomes. Or at least that’s the promise. Sensors can and will improve our lives – giving us more data and insight about our environment and allowing us to tailor experiences to be more finely tuned to our personal desires. The data provided by the sensors in the Internet Of Things is the fuel for further digital transformation.

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The Internet Of Things Will Drive Customer Relationships, And The Industrial Sector Is Realising The Opportunity

Paul Miller

The Internet of Things, or IoT, finds its way into a lot of conversations these days. CES in Las Vegas last week was awash with internet-connected doo-dahs, including cars, fridges, televisions, and more. Moving away from the home and into the world of business, the IoT furore continues unabated. Instead of connecting cars to Netflix or a teen-tracking insurance company, we connect entire fleets of trucks to warehouses, delivery locations, and driver monitoring systems. Instead of connecting the domestic fridge to Carrefour or Tesco or Walmart in order to automatically order another litre of milk, we connect entire banks of chiller units to stock control systems, backup generators, and municipal environmental health officers. And then we connect the really big things; a locomotive, a jet engine, a mountainside covered in wind turbines, a valley bursting with crops, a city teeming with people.

A picture of wind turbines in Scotland
Wind turbines in Ayrshire. (Source: Paul Miller)

The IoT hype is compelling, pervasive, and full of bold promises and eye-watering valuations. And yet, despite talking about connected cars or smarter cities for decades, the all-encompassing vision remains distant. The reality, mostly, is one in which incompatible standards, immature implementations, and patchy network connectivity ensure that each project or procurement delivers an isolated little bubble of partially connected intelligence. Stitching these together, to deliver meaningful views — and control — across all of the supposedly connected systems within a factory, a company, a power network, a city, or a watershed often remains more hope than dependable reality. 

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Global Tech Market Will Continue To Grow At 4%-5% Rates In 2016 And 2017

Andrew Bartels

Forrester has just published our global tech market report for 2016 and 2017 (see “The Global Tech Market Outlook For 2016 To 2017- The Five Themes That Will Define Tech Spending In The Next Two Years”). For the first time, our January 2016 global forecast includes telecommunication services (voice and data, wireline and wireless), which increases the overall size of the global market for tech purchases by business and government by $625 billion to a total of $2.9 trillion in 2016. However, even the addition of telecomm services cannot pull the global tech market out of the 4%-5% growth track, with growth at 4.5% in 2016 and 4.7% in 2017 when measured in exchange-rate-adjusted US dollars.

The five main themes that define the global tech market over the next two years are:

1.       Moderate overall growth remaining below 5%. The global tech market in constant currency terms will continue to grow modestly throughout 2016 and 2017 at 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively. The strong US dollar will persist in 2016, resulting in lower dollar-denominated growth rates. However, we expect the dollar to lose some steam by 2017, so we project 4.9% growth in US dollar terms.

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Age Of The Customer Drives Investment In Business Intelligence Tools

Jennifer Adams

In the age of the customer, customer-obsessed firms serious about personalizing customer experience invest in business intelligence (BI) and analytics tools.  Companies collect more and more data on their clients today. BI software is increasingly important to extract information from the raw data, revealing insights. Analytics software tools go beyond traditional reporting and analysis to anticipate customer behavior and provide real-time insights.

In our recently published Business Intelligence And Analytics Software Forecast (Global), 2015 to 2020, we take a more in-depth look at the market’s growth potential. We expect the global BI and analytics software market to grow at a 12% CAGR over the 2015 to 2020 period.

The traditional BI market has matured, but still offers a significant growth opportunity. While business intelligence software is not a new product, Forrester projects robust growth for the solution. As we move into the Internet of Things era, an exponential increase in the number of connected devices will drive demand for BI software tools to understand the information. We expect the BI software market to grow at a 9% CAGR over the forecast period.

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ForecastView Meets Business Technology

Jennifer Adams

Welcome to my blog!

I joined Forrester recently as a senior forecast analyst on the ForecastView team focusing on business technology (BT) topics. What is ForecastView you ask? It’s a Forrester product that puts the numbers around our research reports by publishing a five-year quantitative outlook. To learn how our forecasts can help you with your investment decisions, read our ForecastView overview.

Our BT forecast team takes a look at cloud, security, IoT, business intelligence, marketing ad technology, Big Data, and other hot topics in the BT space. We launched our ForecastView BT bundle in 2015. In case you missed it, our three 2015 forecasts examined eCommerce platforms, cloud security, and API management. Some highlights:

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IBM Opens Its Global Watson IoT Headquarters In Munich

Dan Bieler

IBM opened its global Watson Internet of Things (IoT) headquarters in Munich this week. It is hardly unusual for this quintessential global business to open research centers on a global scale. But the decision to move the HQ for one of the most dynamic areas of the digital transformation arena to Munich is noteworthy for several reasons. The move underlines that:

  • IoT has a very strong B2B component. Yes, IoT will play a role in consumer segments such as the connected home. But connectivity limitations and costs, compliance, and security will put many IoT ambitions in the consumer space to rest. The real action will be in the B2B space, where IoT will be elemental to drive activities like predictive maintenance, fleet management, traffic management, supply chain management, and order processing. Forrester expects the market size for B2B eCommerce, of which IoT is a subset, to be about twice that of B2C by 2020.
  • IoT and big data are closely intertwined. The real value of IoT solutions will not come from the hardware components of connected assets but from the data they generate and consume. In order to manage and make sense of the data that connected assets generate, cognitive systems and machine learning will play a fundamental role for the evolution of IoT. “Employing” Watson in the IoT context elevates IBM’s role in the IoT market significantly.
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Predictive Analytics Requires A Customer-Obsessed Innovation Culture

Fred Giron

Over the past month, I participated in predictive analytics events in Indonesia and Thailand organized by SAP with about 70 regional CIOs. There is a palpable excitement around predictive analytics these days, but I see a risk that, beyond the excitement of the demo and first implementations, a number of these advanced analytic tools remain shelfware. Why? Because tech management teams often struggle to realize the business value of these investments.

With this in mind, my presentations focused on why companies need to approach analytics with a new mindset: The business discipline and technology to harness insights and consistently turn data into effective action. My colleagues Ted Schadler and Brian Hopkins call the resulting business capability a system of insights. This approach received a lot of positive feedback from the audience and generated discussions on how it can solve their key data & analytics challenges:

  • Ensure strong business support. Many CIOs I have talked to complained that they lack business support, because business sees data & analytics as a technology responsibility and they simply do not want to get engaged. My recommendation to them: stop talking about Big Data and start focusing on business outcomes like improved customer loyalty. That’s where the System of Insights concept can help. Actually, one of the CIOs, part of a large Indonesian conglomerate, told me that this approach would really help him explain how business and tech teams need to collaborate to turn data and insights into actual business value.
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Unleash Your Digital Predator

Nigel Fenwick

Your customers' digital experiences with other suppliers already shape their perceptions of value. Today, your customer assess the value of your services based in part on your ability to integrate into their digital world. The future belongs to companies able to harness digital to create new sources of customer value - these companies are destined to become digital predators, swallowing up lesser digital prey. 

As a business leader, do you get the feeling that you're no longer playing the same game that you once were? It's not you; the world has changed. The things that used to set companies apart — such as economies of scale, distribution strength, and brand — are far less potent than they used to be. Why? Because digital technology has fundamentally changed two things: the dynamics of the markets in which you operate and the speed needed to remain competitive.

The latest report in our series on digital business – Unleash Your Digital Predator – updates our thinking on digital transformation and includes analysis of data from our latest executive research study on digital, conducted in partnership with executive search firm Odgers Berndtson.

Many firms proudly point to their mobile app and proclaim "Hey, we're digital!" While they may be driving incremental revenue, all they have done is bolt another digital touchpoint onto the existing business. Digital transformation goes much further, fundamentally reshaping the way you create value for your customers and drive revenue growth. Achieving this requires that firms approach digital business from the outside in, pursuing two dimensions of digital in parallel: digital customer experience(DCX) and digital operational excellence (DOX).

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The State Of Digital Business 2016 to 2020

Nigel Fenwick

In the first in a series of reports examining the results of our latest survey on digital business, conducted in partnership with Odgers Berndtson, I look at executive perception of the impact of digital on their business. 

It turns out executives are hugely optimistic about how digital will change their business. Forty-six percent of executives surveyed believe that in less than five years digital will have an impact on more than half their sales. This suggests not only huge awareness of the potential for digital to change today's business but also an expectation that their company will be successful in making the transformation needed to bring this expectation to fruition. And it's in the biggest companies, where change is hardest, that executives expect the greatest change.

In B2B industries like consumer packaged goods (CPG), wholesale sales, and professional services, the shift is expected to be dramatic — Forrester estimates that the US B2B eCommerce market will be $1.13 trillion by 2020.

  • CPG execs expect digital to have an impact on almost half their sales. Even though the percentage predicted by 2020 is still less than 50%, if CPG companies were to generate anything close to 45% of their sales through digitally enhanced products and services or through online sales by 2020, it signals a dramatic shift in the CPG landscape. The ripple effects of the digitization of more and more CPG will be felt through wholesale and retail channels. 

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