Nokia Solutions and Services after Nokia

Dan Bieler

As many market observers had expected for sometime, Nokia closed the chapter on what can only be described as a dramatic climb-down for what once was the world’s leading mobile player. Nokia agreed to sell its Devices & Services business to Microsoft for 5.4 billion euros. What does this mean for Nokia Solutions and Services (NSN), formerly Nokia Siemens Networks? I have several observations:

  • I expect that more change for both Nokia and NSN lies ahead. Nobody can accuse Nokia of shying away from fundamental transformations: from pulp producer, to electronic component supplier, to mobile phone company, to now what resembles a holding company looking after a network infrastructure business (NSN), a cloud-based mapping service (HERE), and a patents and a licensing operation (Advanced Technologies). I see no synergies between these operations. Hence, a breakup of Nokia followed by an initial public offering of NSN could be one possibility. At the Mobile World Congress 2013, NSN presented itself in a manner what - to me - looked like dressing up for an IPO: a lean and mean provider of mobile broadband network solutions.
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The Battle To Serve Your Digital Self

Frank Gillett

Forrester’s surveys show that individuals all over the world are using personal cloud technologies to store their personal and work stuff — files, contacts, photos, music, and videos — in online services. In the US, 77% of online adults use one or more of these services, while in Europe 61% do so. As a result, there’s now a new Internet gold rush to help you build your “digital self” — to help you access, manage, and benefit from your digital information using any smartphone, tablet, PC, or web browser.

Once your digital self is stored in online services, it becomes possible for providers to serve you with not only automated storage but also advice. These providers do things like automatically uploading your digital photos, synchronizing your contacts everywhere, and automatically assembling your expense report from photos, scans, or emails of receipts. Or even advising you on the right financial strategy or workout times based on your spending logs and work calendar.

The companies offering these services are a mix of leading startups, big tech companies, and new players.

For example, Phil Libin created Evernote to help you remember everything easily after he grew frustrated at fiddling with files to organize information from work and home. Now Evernote has 45 million accounts and a new deal to serve Telefonica’s wireless customers worldwide. When you enter new notes, Evernote suggests related notes from your notebooks and those of coworkers you’re linked to.

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Microsoft Buys Nokia Devices As A Major Building Block Of Its Devices+Services Strategy

Ted Schadler

Microsoft acquired Nokia's devices business for $7.2 billion (which is only 27% of Microsoft's 2013 earnings and just 9% of its cash and short-term investments). Microsoft bought the devices and some of the services along with the services of former Microsoft Office leader Stephen Elop, who will run Microsoft's Devices business. By all accounts, Stephen was a much-admired Microsoft executive when he left to run Nokia in 2010.

I'll leave telecom industry analysis of the deal in the worthy hands of my colleagues Thomas Husson and Charles Golvin. I'll leave journalistic speculation to the media. I'll leave personality analysis to the pop psychologists. But as a software+devices+services industry analyst, I'll share my analysis of how this acquisition changes Microsoft's position in the mobile mind shift.

  • First, this acquisition is a clear stepping stone in Microsoft's transition from a software company to a software-led multiproduct company. Apple pioneered the model of vertical integration in devices: device+software+services. Google quickly mastered it. Microsoft has now proven that it is willing and able to make the tough decisions to make a vertically integrated product a cornerstone of its business model.
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It's Harvest Time For Vodafone In The US

Dan Bieler

Alas: It has finally happened. Vodafone has sold its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless to Verizon for $130 billion in a part cash ($58.9 billion) and part equity deal. The deal values the 45% stake at 9.4 times EBITDA. Markets had been speculating about this deal for years, so why has it taken place now? Arguably, the decision was made easier by Verizon’s share price, which is at a decade high, as well the the potential for rising interest rates. From Vodafone’s perspective, our main observations are that:

  • The deal is strategic for Vodafone and financial for Verizon. While the deal is a strategic transaction for Vodafone – it has decided to exit the US market – it is a financial transaction for Verizon: It already controlled Verizon Wireless through its 55% stake in the business. But after Vodafone’s exit, Verizon can keep the cash and no longer needs to pay out a dividend to Vodafone. It can instead use this retained dividend cash flow for capital expenditures and other investments to help boost its position in an increasingly competitive US wireless market (e.g., Softbank + Sprint; T-Mobile + MetroPCS).
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Welcome to the Connected World

Chris Mines

The world is becoming more and more connected, whether we look at consumer products like thermostats, commercial assets like a fleet of trucks, or infrastructure systems as extensive as electricity grids or cities. By understanding the broad landscape of the connected world, business and technology leaders can ready their firm for the implications — positive and negative — of asset control, business model change, and deeper data-driven customer engagement.

In Forrester’s upcoming report, “Mapping The Connected World,” we map the broad landscape of the emerging connected world, assessing the attractiveness and readiness of different industries and use cases. This report draws from and synthesizes related research around smart products, the connected car, and smart cities, while setting the stage for upcoming reports like the connected home and embedded systems. Our focus is on analyzing the business impacts of increasing connectivity between physical devices and infrastructures, and digital computing and analytic systems.

The Connected World

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Where BI Falls Short: Taking A Singular Point Of View

James Staten

There is a reason the phrase, “beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” has held significance and power in our society for so many generations. And in that phrase is a lesson for all of us about business analysis. The power of different points of view examining a given set of inputs is key to truly understanding what lies before us and seeing the new possibilities and different threats looming.

Sit silently in a museum listening to the patrons take in just a single painting and within a day you will hear a hundred different insights, many of which you didn’t see before. Insights that show you things in that artwork you never would have seen, such as the way greens and reds are mixed to create hues that don’t invoke their origins, the style of brushstrokes used that convey depth and how a pattern viewed up close can be very different than the whole. So much insight doesn’t stem from the painting but from the varied experiences, backgrounds, cultures and histories the observers bring with them. The same is true in data analysis. It’s through different points of view that something can be fully analyzed. Each person brings their varied experiences (their data) to the analysis.

As businesses we tend not to sit silently and take in what others see about ourselves and our data. We tend not to expose our data at all to our partners, trusted third parties or potential collaborators (like our customers) and by not doing so, they cannot combine their data with ours and uncover things we cannot see. As a result, we cannot see the broader picture. And this leads to bad business decisions based on a myopic point of view.

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Steve Ballmer Steps Down: My Take On The Forces In Play

Ted Schadler

I don't know Steve Ballmer. I've only met him once. (I've met with Bill Gates more often than that.) But let's face it, he had tremendous impact as a leader. And it's now a good time for him to step aside.

When Steve took over from Bill as CEO of Microsoft in 2000, the company's revenues were $21B and the business was led by desktop software. Under Steve's guidance, Microsoft made massive inroads into enterprise server software and tools while investing but not really winning in consumer services and certainly not in mobile devices. And in recent years, Steve listened to lieutenants like Ray Ozzie and Bob Muglia to turn the Redmond juggernaut towards cloud computing, mobile devices, and software+services.

At the same time, the world has moved faster than Microsoft's licensed software business model could respond. Apple, Google, and Amazon have become enterprise suppliers. Salesforce.com and Amazon are accelerating the shift to cloud computing. Dropbox has grown from zero to 175 million users in five years. So even as Microsoft's revenue more than tripled to $73B in 2012, things didn't feel good.

I think it's a good decision for Steve to step down and pass control to someone else, probably an outsider. Microsoft will then face its IBM or GE moment: Keep the company together or break it apart? Lou Gerstner kept IBM together and that decision had paid off handsomely. Then again, IBM relentlessly focused on a single enterprise market, shedding its PC and other low-margin businesses.

So what's next for Microsoft? I see three forces colliding to drive that decision:

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Q&A with Paul Cobban, Managing Director, COO, Technology and Operations, DBS Bank

Dane Anderson

In advance of Forrester's Summit for CIOs in Singapore on August 30, I had an opportunity to speak with Paul Cobban about his successful transformations at DBS Bank over the past few years. Based in Singapore, Paul oversees business transformation, operational excellence, customer experience, IT project office, procurement, real eastate, operational risk and business continuity management.  I've had a sneak peak at his event presentation and it is excellent.  Paul is a progressive CIO at the forefront of BT innovation and business engagement with a lot of valuable insight to share. 

1. What do you think IT departments are doing right and wrong these days?

In banking the IT departments have had to change enormously in recent years.  On top of the usual relentless advances in technology, security challenges have escalated, the war for talent has accelerated and regulation continues to evolve with the challenges. I believe that IT departments have had to adapt well to these changes. 

However, in most companies there is a lack of a truly customer centric design. Although there is some hype in the industry around service-oriented architecture (SOA), I believe that until budgets are allocated around customer processes rather than by functional units, systems will continue to be designed as applications for the department users rather than with the customer in mind. In addition, most companies fail to take usability seriously and have little concept of cross touchpoint consistency.

2. How do you measure ROI for IT? 

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The Cost of PRISM Will Be Larger Than ITIF Projects

James Staten

Earlier this month The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) published a prediction that the U.S. cloud computing industry stands to lose up to $35 billion by 2016 thanks to the National Security Agency (NSA) PRISM project, leaked to the media in June. We think this estimate is too low and could be as high as $180 billion or a 25% hit to overall IT service provider revenues in that same timeframe. That is, if you believe the assumption that government spying is more a concern than the business benefits of going cloud.

Having read through the thoughtful analysis by Daniel Castro at ITIF, we commend him and this think tank on their reasoning and cost estimates. However the analysis really limited the impact to the actions of non-US corporations. The high-end figure, assumes US-based cloud computing providers would lose 20% of the potential revenues available from the foreign market. However we believe there are two additional impacts that would further be felt from this revelation:

1. US customers would also bypass US cloud providers for their international and overseas business - costing these cloud providers up to 20% of this business as well.

2. Non-US cloud providers will lose as much as 20% of their available overseas and domestic opportunities due to other governments taking similar actions.

Let's examine these two cases in a bit more detail.

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Are Cloud Developers Really That Different? Yes.

James Staten

To an IT leader a cloud developer can easily look like the enemy. They don't do what you say, they cause havoc by circumventing your IT rules and building new services and capabilities on public cloud platforms and seem to take orders not from you but from the business unit. Are these perceptions reality? Well, according to the 2013 Forrester ForrSights Developer Survey, yes. But they are also some of your most productive, happy and loyal developers too.

The survey shows that less than a quarter of all enterprise developers are using cloud platforms today. Examining the first movers, as self-identified in this survey, we found significant differences in the behavior, attitude and reporting structure of these members of your IT team. Cloud developers are risk takers who are empowered, more comfortable with open source technologies, building the new systems of engagement and tend to be happier in their work. They aren't just experimenting either; they are putting applications into production on the public cloud platforms and are doing so with traditional programming languages via agile, modern application designs. Forrester clients can now download a toolkit report providing a snapshot view of the data from this compelling survey (in Microsoft PowerPoint and PDF formats) that shows what distinguishes these developers from the pack.

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