Google Is Right When It Says That Mobile Payments Are Just Starting

Today Google announced its Google Wallet product, along with partners Sprint, Citi, MasterCard, and First Data (Forrester clients can read our more detailed take on this announcement here). While Google Wallet will initially support Citi-branded MasterCards, the product is open and will accept payment solutions from multiple networks and issuers. Google introduced its Wallet by saying, “This is just starting,” and Google’s right — the path to the new world of transactions that the company painted will be a long and arduous one for consumer product strategists. Why?

  • Not many phones. Today the number of phones on the market that support Google Wallet is as close to zero as makes no difference — the Nexus S that Sprint launched on May 8th. That will change — by the end of 2012, we expect that virtually every smartphone sold will include NFC.
  • Not many issuers. Consumers want to be able to use their existing payment options, not have to sign up for a new credit or debit card in order to use their phone.
  • Not many merchants. Consumers don’t want to have to look for an acceptance mark; they expect that the merchants they frequent will support the payment options in their wallet. While PayPass terminals are becoming more prevalent, they are a long way from ubiquitous.
  • Not much incentive for consumers. Some consumers might say it’s convenient to just carry their phone, but wallets hold a lot more than just payment instruments. And it’s not clear that pulling out our phone, opening an app, inputting a PIN, and waving our phone at the POS is more convenient than swiping a credit card or exchanging cash.
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AT&T Aims To Once Again Leapfrog Verizon And Reclaim The #1 US Wireless Position

On Sunday AT&T announced its intent to spend $39 billion in cash and stock to purchase T-Mobile USA, the #4 wireless operator in the US. The move, much like Cingular’s 2004 acquisition of AT&T Wireless, would vault the #2 provider over Verizon Wireless into a dominant leadership position. Our clients can read Forrester’s take from a product strategy perspective shortly; here’s a summary:

  • For AT&T, this is all about scale. The acquisition, were it to pass regulatory muster (no slam dunk that), addresses a number of scale challenges for AT&T. Most importantly, it delivers the precious spectrum assets needed to deploy a robust, nationwide LTE network; AT&T says that network will, as a result, ultimately be available to 95% of Americans, 46.5 million more than currently planned. It also delivers a boatload of extant base stations, many fed by Ethernet or fiber backhaul, which will help AT&T bolster its service quality (iPhone owners please don’t hold your breath). And it delivers a skilled radio frequency team that will help the company plan and deploy its next-generation network.
  • Those supplying products need also scale. This new customer base of nearly 130 million subscriptions (again, assuming regulatory approval and the unlikely case of no divestitures) represents a huge opportunity for product strategists at device makers, platform owners, and application providers. But meeting that opportunity will, for device makers, mean taking a haircut on margins in light of AT&T’s purchasing power. We think platform providers like Microsoft ought to consider the upside of an exclusive to tap into AT&T’s rich marketing budget — provided they can get a partner to bring a decent tablet to the market at the same time.
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Nokia And Microsoft Unite To Establish Relevance In Smartphones

Nokia’s announcement in London on Friday that Microsoft’s Windows Phone would be its primary smartphone platform for the future represents a dramatic shift in its smartphone strategy, one that it hopes will resurrect its once-dominant position in that market. And Microsoft hopes that adding the scale, reach, and technology of the global leader in mobile phone shipments will establish its platform as “the third ecosystem” alongside those of Apple and Google. Our clients can read Forrester’s take from a product strategy perspective here; here’s a summary:

  • Nokia’s choice is the least bad among its options. Nokia rightly distilled its choice to among three, the alternatives to Microsoft being to stick with the Symbian and MeeGo platforms that Nokia controls or to join the Android bandwagon. Symbian has proven itself noncompetitive with customers, operators, and developers; MeeGo, with one lone device in the market, is a nonentity. Google’s platform would have rendered Nokia a “me-too” competitor — albeit one with massive scale — having to play catch-up in an extremely fast-moving market. Microsoft’s platform offers Nokia the possibility to create products that will motivate consumers and operators to buy, and help convince developers to elevate Windows Mobile in their priority list.
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iPhone 4 Will Reinforce The Differentiating Power Of Software In Phones

 

To the surprise of no one, today Apple unveiled the fourth version of its iconic device: iPhone 4. While some features such as the higher resolution camera, LED flash, and front facing camera qualify more as upgrades that put Apple back on par with leading competitors, others such as the "retina" display and the gorgeous industrial design will maintain Apple's mindshare and market share growth rates.

Apple is going to sell a lot of iPhone 4s. They'll sell them to those who simply have to have the new new thing (many of whom are iPhone owners already), and to iPhone owners who were off contract and waiting for the new version. They'll also sell a lot of iPhone 3GSs, especially to iPhone 3G owners who can't stomach going without iOS 4's multitasking, and also to those for whom $15/month is a manageable addition but $30/month is not. That's a whole lot of good news for AT&T and Apple's other carrier partners, though that good news is more in the form of loyalty than in net additions to their networks.

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AT&T's Revamped Data Pricing Is More About Tomorrow Than Today

 

This morning AT&T announced new data pricing for its mobile customers. Today's $30 per month unlimited use plan will be replaced by two plans:

  • $15 per month for up to 200 megabytes of data, with additional blocks of 200 MB at $15 each.
  • $25 per month for up to 2 gigabytes of data, with additional blocks of 1 GB at $10 each.

AT&T's CEO of Consumer, Ralph de la Vega, has publicly suggested on multiple occasions that network operators need to address the small percentage of subscribers that abuse unlimited usage plans and degrade the experience of others on the network. These suggestions have been met with howls by many, and I expect that we'll see similar reactions to this latest change. But will those reactions be justified? The answer depends on whether you believe AT&T's data on its current data users.

Mark Collins, AT&T's Senior VP of Data and Voice Products, told us that 65% of today's smartphone data users consume less than 200 MB of data per month, and 98% of them use less than 2 GB of data per month. These data plans then represent an opportunity for virtually all of AT&T's data customers to reduce their monthly data charges. For consumer product strategists, this change shows a remarkably (and, for some, surprisingly) customer-centric viewpoint. Why?

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KIN -- Microsoft's Best Step In The Consumer Mobile Market To Date

This morning Microsoft announced its first KIN phones, devices targeted at young social networking enthusiasts. KIN phones will be manufactured by Sharp and available on the Verizon Wireless network in May, and on Vodafone's network in Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK this autumn. These KIN devices — and the supporting software and services — are logical outcomes following Microsoft's February, 2008 acquisition of Danger, the inventor of the Sidekick. What's noteworthy about KIN?

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Apple's iPhone OS Upgrade Will Make Lots Of People Happy -- And Some Angry

 

Today Apple previewed the next version — 4.0 — of the iPhone OS, the software that powers the company's iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad products, a preview version of which it is unleashing on developers today. Apple will release the product to iPhone and iPod Touch owners this summer, and to iPad owners in the Fall. Apple's customers and partners will largely welcome the innovations in this new release, though there are undoubtedly segments who will complain vehemently. Specifically:

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Microsoft's Path To Success In The Consumer Mobile Market

Today at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona Microsoft unveiled the next version of its mobile phone software, Windows Phone 7 Series. The name alone is noteworthy because:

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Apple's iPad Reaffirms The Changing Mobile Operator Business

In the firestorm of speculation leading up to Apple's debut of its iPad device was a strong thread regarding the company's ability to further accelerate tectonic shifts in the media industry, especially the print industry. Now, following its unveiling, some have pointed to the structure of the relationship between Apple and AT&T and posed similar questions regarding the mobile industry and in particular operators' business models. The iPad deal is just evidence of changes that have been accelerating for the past several years. These changes include:
  • New pricing models. As the U.S. market has saturated operators have reassessed prepaid, elevating it beyond the 'choice of last resort' for consumers, and introducing unlimited voice, data, and messaging plans like Boost Unlimited. They have also enabled prepaid for laptop and netbook data connections — which plans the iPad will exploit. European operators have gone further and introduced session-based pricing, such as per day or week. Devices like Amazon's Kindle rely on a wholesale model to make the cost of transport invisible to consumers (for books and the like, at least).
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Apple Tablet: A Should-Do List for Apple

In the last month the din of rumor and the clamor of speculation inspired by Apple’s expected announcement this week has risen in a crescendo that is about to peak. We’re all convinced this Wednesday’s “one other thing” will be some kind of magical tablet device. We all expect it will be a big deal. And in these past weeks we’ve witnessed a parade of writers, analysts, and consumers who have all published their “wish” or even “guess” (or, in some cases, “fantasy”) lists. But we have yet to see what we think really matters: an Apple “should” list that identifies the things Apple should do to ensure that its device is successful.

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