by Charlene Li

On Monday, I gave the kick off speech for the Graphing Social Patterns West conference on the topic, “The Future Of Social Networks” (slides are available on SlideShare, summaries available on News.com, ReadWriteWeb, and allfacebook.) Note that this is still ongoing research, so I welcome your comments.

I set my time frame for the long term – five, even ten years out. That’s because unless we know where we want to end up, how could we ever craft a strategy to get there? For inspiration, I thought about my grade-school kids, who in ten years will be in the midst of social network engagement. I believe they (and we) will look back to 2008 and think it archaic and quaint that we had to go to a destination like Facebook or LinkedIn to “be social”.

Instead, I believe that in the future, social networks will be like air. They will be anywhere and everywhere we need and want them to be. And also, without that social context in our connected lives, we won’t really feel like we are truly living and alive, just as without sufficient air, we won’t really be able to breathe deeply.

There are four components of what I’m calling this idea of “ubiquitous social networks”: 1) Profiles; 2) Relationships; 3) Activities; and 4) Business models. These aren’t new -- I wrote about the first three in my original report on social networks back in May 2004. But in the context of ubiquitous social networks, they will develop into the following: 1) Universal identities; 2) A single social graph; 3) Social context for activities; and 4) Social influence defining marketing value. For more detail on each of these components, see the extended post (warning: it's really long!).

The ubiquitous social network isn’t going to happen overnight – in fact, it’s going to take five+ years to come to fruition. This is part of the continued evolution of open platforms, starting with walled garden services like Prodigy, Compuserve, and AOL that evolved into the major portal aggregators like Yahoo!, MSN, and AOL. This gave way to the “search era” where Google et. al. made all of the Internet easily accessible. Today’s social networks are a throwback to those early closed platforms, and they will be opened up by new “entrants” into the social space – namely, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, and AOL – who will leverage their deep, daily relationships with online audiences.

In the end, there are two essential things that have to present for this all to happen. The first is technology -- ubiquitous Internet access and the servers to enable real-time social graph access. Given the pace of technology development, I'm pretty sure this will happen. The second is much harder -- trust has to be present, between people, between social networks, marketers, and developers. This is what is going take a lot of time, effort, and patience, but the optimist in me thinks that it will come. That's because people will press for it, demanding that sites and applications adhere to a Bill of Rights for users of the Social Web.

So what is a social network, marketer, or developer to do? Here are my recommendations:

• Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social network

In the extended post (click on "More" below) is a more detailed explanation of how I see each of the four components of ubiquitous social networks developing.

As I mentioned above, this is ongoing research and I'm far from done. So if you have ideas, comments, criticisms, or examples, let me know via comments below or email at cli at forrester dot com.

by Charlie Golvin

(Note: My colleague, Charlie Golvin, covers wireless devices and services, and he was kind enough to provide his insights on Google's latest mobile announcements - Charlene)

The Android platform that Google and its partners in the Open Handset Alliance announced today will significantly impact the mobile market — eventually, but the time for this impact to play out is lengthy.

Android is most impactful on handset vendors because it provides a very cost effective software solution that can reduce their licensing, development, and maintenance costs. The greater the portion of their portfolio that Android makes up, the more true this is.

Android holds a similar promise for developers, reducing the complexity of their development efforts that currently span multiple platforms and multiple versions within those platforms. Paradoxically, Android will increase complexity for developers initially since it represents yet another platform to support. But the platform also promises more flexibility in distribution and business models, more akin to the Net today.

Carriers have the opportunity to benefit by virtue of the innovation among developers Android will help spawn. Also, carriers now in search of business models that extend beyond subscriptions and pay per use have a greater chance of succeeding with partners that bring the necessary skills to make ad-based models succeed (try to think of one).

But there are some things Android won’t change — like the distribution model for handsets in markets like the US where carriers are in control. Those of you dreaming of low-cost unlocked handsets sold at retail along with flat rate access plans should sit back, take another hit off your bong, and mellow out. Not gonna happen, not just by virtue of Android’s presence, anyway.

Oh, what’s in it for Google? Reach to an audience that is larger than Net users on the PC, and growing larger, plus relevance for the next billions of Net users, the majority of whom will only experience the Net on a mobile phone, not a PC. And the opportunity to sell ads to anyone who wants to reach them, on any of these new Net-powered mobile apps or just on the mobile Internet through a browser.

(Note this goes nicely with the OpenSocial effort, since all those widget developers won’t have the tolerance for the complexity of today’s mobile environment but definitely want to be able to extend out to phones.)

Tags: Google, Open Handset Alliance, Android, mobile,  Forrester Research, Groundswell

Add to del.icio.us

by Charlene Li

You may have noticed that the tag line for this blog has changed – a key goal is to help people do their jobs better, to “win” so to speak with social technologies.

To that end, I thought you’d like to know about a few upcoming boot camps Forrester is running. These events are different from large scale conferences – they are typically 1-2 Forrester analysts with a small group of participants, usually around 20 people. We spend an entire day discussing the strategy and tactics needed to win with new technologies. And I personally love the format because it’s a great way for me to immerse myself in the day to day issues that people are facing.

So here are a few highlights of upcoming boot camps – there is also a complete list of all boot camps being offered. I hope you can join us, and please contact me if you have any questions.

Emerging Interactive Marketing Channels Boot Camp
Wednesday, March 21, 2007 in Cambridge, MA 
Analysts: Brian Haven & Christine Overby

This Boot Camp will introduce new marketing channels and provide techniques for successfully exploring and leveraging the marketing opportunities that each offers. Marketers will learn how to determine if each channel is right for their brand and develop a plan for how to get started.

This Boot Camp will include:
•    Interactive sessions covering how consumers have adopted each channel, how marketers use each channel today, and how to best leverage each to target consumers.
•    Sessions covering rich media (video, podcasting, gaming), user-generated content, social media (social networks, wikis, widgets, tagging, etc.), word-of-mouth marketing, mobile marketing, and others.
•    Examples of how marketers, agencies, and public      relations firms have used these emerging marketing channels.

Social Computing Boot Camp: Tapping Into The Power Of Connect Consumers
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 in Miami, Florida
Analysts: Charlene Li & Brian Haven

New technologies like blogs, social networking, and RSS are changing the media and marketing landscape. This Boot Camp will not only introduce these new tools, it will also move you quickly into being an active participant in social media and marketing. You'll go home with a better understanding of how to use social marketing — and more importantly, a workable plan for what to do today. Marketers will learn when it is appropriate to use these tools, how to overcome internal resistance to deployment, and how to measure the results.

This Boot Camp will include:
•    Interactive sessions on consumer adoption and behaviors toward blogs, RSS, social networking,      word-of-mouth marketing, and podcasting.
•    Examples of how marketers, agencies, and public relations firms have used social marketing — and how to avoid the pitfalls.
•    Hands-on training on how to create blogs and RSS feeds, as well as podcasts. In addition to a      technical overview, the training will include best practices on how to manage the internal process of setting up these social marketing tools.
•    A best practices panel of marketers, agencies, and technology providers.

Blogging Fundamentals: Building A Business Strategy
Friday, April 13, 2007 in Miami, Florida
Analysts: Charlene Li & Brian Haven

Blogs are evolving quickly as a communication medium and influencing the development of communications and marketing strategy. With more than 27 million blogs being written today, it is impossible not to find a niche community that can influence customer perceptions of a brand.

As customers increasingly tune out traditional advertising and turn to new communication channels to fill the void, companies must learn how to join in the conversation. Moreover, besides connecting companies and their customers, blogs are also becoming an invaluable collaboration tool within companies to facilitate knowledge management and cross-functional communications.

This Boot Camp will focus on the fundamentals of blogging from a corporate perspective, helping companies develop a blog strategy and implementation plan, including discussion of policy, technology, and process. It will have a heavy focus on hands-on exercises that will complement in-depth presentations on these issues.

My colleague, Charlie Golvin, covers the consumer wireless space and participated in the Google Personalzied Home for mobile briefing with me today. He offers the following thoughts on the service and asks for your thoughts as well:.

The mobile Internet is a different experience from the PC Internet — as it should be. The applications tend to fall into one of two categories:

• Information with a short half life (think stock alert or ebay outbid notice);
• Time killers (think Tetris or a 3 minute Daily Show clip).

Google looks to have done a good job of addressing some of the shortcomings in the first category, because your personalized home page — configured on your desktop, not your phone — is something you can arrange to have the resources that provide the information you know you’re likely to need when you’re on the go (like Charlene’s RSS feed). And also because they’ve streamlined the delivery of that information, ensuring that the delay between clicking on Google and getting the information you want is as short as possible (to the extent they can influence that).

Finally, they’ve chosen the platform that allows them to reach as many consumers as possible with the lowest barrier — xHTML browsers. This last point is in stark contrast to Yahoo!, which is limited to some Nokia Series 60 devices today and requires a somewhat convoluted download and installation process on some of them (like my 7610). Down the road Yahoo! will bear much higher development costs to reach their broad audience.

But will it make a difference? Will Yahoo! or MSN loyalists who have invested in personalizing their experience invest time in doing likewise at Google because the resultant mobile experience is so much better? I think the answer is no — for the real loyalists. But for those whose investment is lower and who don’t mind doing a quick setup of a personal page in order to make the mobile Internet more useful, sure. Charlene’s willing to do it just to get her RSS feeds more efficiently, but my use will be more of a flirtation before I go back to Yahoo! What do you think?

Just got off the phone with Deep Nashir, product manager for Google mobile products. Google just made its personalized home page accessible on mobile devices with an XHTML-capable Web browser. The announcement of Google Personalized Home and details for a Web-enabled demo are below.

Deep had three reasons for why they did this:

1) the phone is a very personal device, so the experience on the phone should be personal. 

2) they figured out a way so that network latency issues are minimized.

3) all of the information is available on the home screen -- you can quickly see how many emails are in Gmail, what the weather is, and your top RSS feeds. Deep positioned this as vastly different from Yahoo! Go Mobile, where information is still a click (and wait) away. Also, Yahoo! Go requires a download while the new Google service is available with just the browser

Interestingly, Google sets the default order of the content, and when asked whether user could customize the ordering, Deep said cryptically, "That feature is not available today," which implies that it will soon be. 

My take: finally, an easy way to get my RSS feeds on my Blackberry! I'll be setting up my Google personalized page primarily for mobile reading. This is a new habit of mine -- depending on where I read my RSS content, I want different configurations of different content. For example, I have ALL of my feeds coming into FeedDemon, which I use as a backup. I then read all of my backlogged feeds (aka non-priority feeds) when I'm traveling and offline. There are my regular feeds that I get through both Bloglines and Google Sidebar (again I use Bloglines as a backup because I can read it anywhere, Sidebar because it's easy and accessible at all times). And now, I'll add some crucial must reads to my Google page for my mobile information needs.

Here's the announcement:

Today, Google continued the expansion of its mobile offerings with the announcement of Google Personalized Home for mobile devices, a new service that enables users’ access to their personalized Google homepage on their mobile phones and PDAs.  With Personalized Home, users on-the-go can view the information they access most frequently from one screen on their mobile device.  For example, business travelers can easily keep up with their personal stock quotes while they're on the road, and news junkies can stay on top of their favorite headlines when they're away from their desktops and TVs - all without having to search multiple web pages from a mobile device.

Google Personalized Home provides at-a-glance access to information such as Gmail, customized news headlines, local weather, stock updates, hand-picked RSS feeds and more.  Information is optimized for the smaller screens and slower bandwidth of most mobile devices and is presented in a format that reduces the need to click multiple links.

Users who have already setup a personalized Google homepage on their PC can simply visit http://www.google.com through the web browser of their mobile device, select the "Personalized Home" link, and then sign in with their Google account username and password.  The next time they visit google.com on their phone, they will automatically see the same customized content modules that are featured on the web version of their Google personalized homepage. (Users who do not yet have a personalized Google homepage on their PC should first visit http://www.google.com/ig from their desktop computer and select the content to be added to their homepage.)

Google Personalized Home is currently available for free to mobile users in the U.S. and works with any phone that contains an XHTML-capable web browser.  Users should check with their carriers on their data service plan to determine if there are additional charges for web access.

For more information about Google Personalized Home, please visit http://mobile.google.com/personalized/.

Here’s a quick overview of some of the things I picked up after two days at CES.

-         A Tale Of Two Keynotes. I attended both the Yahoo! and Google keynotes and Friday and the contrast was obvious, starting from the music and ending with the celebrities. I have to say, I really enjoyed seeing Tom Cruise during the Yahoo! speech, but felt that it was fairly canned, especially Ellen DeGeneres’ “monologue” about the technical problems she had. The Yahoo! speakers were well rehearsed, but they were, well, rehearsed. In contrast, Larry Page was far from the most dynamic speaker, frequently checking his paper notes. But there was a down to earth quality of his presentation, and the fact that he took many questions from audience members brought a man of the people quality to the keynote. But by far the best part of the Google keynote was Robin Williams’ co-hosting of the Q&A (I thankfully escaped any ribbing when I asked a question!). You couldn’t have asked for better entertainment than the parody of our own questions.

-         Getting trampled. Just one other observation about the keynotes. Maybe it was the 9am start time, maybe it was the company, but the Yahoo! keynote wasn’t full and while the audience was attentive, it wasn’t energized. I was able to walk in, and have nobody else sitting next to me in the balcony. Contrast to the Google keynote, which was near mayhem outside the theater doors just before the start of the keynote. I showed up 15 minutes early, stood in the wrong line (with ticket holders instead of press) and proceeded to get pushed, shoved, and almost trampled by irate ticket holders who couldn’t get in because they had all shown up past the deadline. And there were about 200 more people without tickets hoping to get in anyway at the last minute. The result: I felt very fortunate to finally get in, but was pretty shaken from the mayhem. I knew that the Google keynote was the hottest ticket at CES, but didn’t anticipate just how aggressive people could be.

-         Convergence? Didn’t see it. This show was supposed to be about “convergence” but darn if I couldn’t find it at the show. I haven’t been to CES since 1995, primarily because my research focus is on media and marketing – you know, the stuff that convergence is supposed to bring to devices. The Yahoo! and Google keynotes gave me the excuse to come to Las Vegas and indulge my gadget-loving side, but there was little convergence happening outside of Yahoo’s announcements. The only other interesting example was TiVo’s current online offerings, available on the Series 2 machines (I just ordered one so I’m eager to try it out). TiVo’s CEO Tom Rogers eagerly discussed with a group of reporters its anticipated high definition product (scheduled to be introduced mid-year) which will take advantage of its broadband connection to provide even more online services. While I anticipate more devices to integrate online services, it will be deals like the one between TiVo and Yahoo! that will be core to making such convergence services work for consumers.

-         My favorite gadget. I heard about this one when a TV crew picked me out while I was noshing my lunch outside the main hall with some Forrester colleagues. Interestingly, they wanted to interview me and not my other (male) colleagues because I was a woman. The device: the Connect Io Intelligent Oven that turns on by the Internet or cell phone (and can keep food cool before it turns on). What, were you expecting me to pick a cell phone or HDTV? As a working mom, I thought this was just the coolest thing – I can throw the frozen pizza in the oven in the morning, ping it to preheat and cook the pizza when I pick up my kids, and have pizza on the table in 5 minutes. Now, I just need an applicance that will wash, peel, and cook the veggies for me too!

-         Pedal power in Las Vegas. I rented a bike to get around (photo proof is below) and it totally made the CES experience enjoyable. (My collegue Josh Bernoff did the same). I was able to get from my hotel on the Strip (Harrah’s) to the convention center in 10 minutes – and that includes abiding by all traffic lights. Racking the bike is easy – there are stands right outside Central Hall (Sands is a bit trickier – the only rack I could find was in the back in the service entrance). And visiting other hotels around town is easy – simply check the back in at the Bell Desk. Las Vegas Cyclery makes it easy by dropping off/picking up the bike from your hotel. Only other recommendations: bring your own helmet and wear reflective clothing.

Yahoo! announced its new Yahoo! Go suite, which consists of Yahoo! Go Mobile, Yahoo! Go TV, and Yahoo! Go Desktop. I think it’s significant because Yahoo! shows how a traditional Internet content and service provider can link to devices like phones and TVs. Here’s a quick overview and specific highlights:

-         The Yahoo! Go concept: Anything that you can access on Yahoo! through your browser will also be available on your desktop (outside of your browser), on your phone, and on your TV.

-         Yahoo! Go Mobile is a really nice connection between your phone and your Yahoo service. Snap a photo and have it appear on Yahoo! Photos (Finally! An easy way to get photos off of my camera phone). A phone number you enter on Yahoo! Addresses shows up on your phone’s address book. I personally LOVE this idea of a universal contact list, especially as I am prone to losing my cell phone!

-         Yahoo! Go Desktop is a repositioning of Yahoo! Widgets (a.k.a. Konfabulator) to puts individual services directly on the desktop. Yahoo! also announced Dashboard, which is very similar to Google Sidebar and MSN’s Dashboard (available only to MSN ISP customers). One key improvement: the user can see activities from people on their buddy lists, for example, a new post on Yahoo! 360 or Web page tagged via Yahoo! My Web. This is similar to the connectivity within Windows Live which taps into Messenger to show “gleams” of activity by your buddies.

-         Yahoo! Go TV which puts music playlists and Yahoo’s video search on the TV. It’s great especially for showing a slideshow of your Yahoo! Photos on the big screen. I didn’t find this rendition that compelling (nice, just not compelling). But tucked away in the corner of the demonstrations was a concept screen that showed how content like RSS feeds and Yahoo! entertainment content could be integrated on to the television. For example, if you’re watching a football game, go and check your sports feeds. If you’re watching a movie, go and get more information about the star, what other movies they are in, or even purchase the DVD on Yahoo! shopping (see the screenshots I’ve uploaded below -- note that one of the screenshots includes an in-line add for a Howard Stern show.) The compelling idea is that you can customize the television experience with content from the Web.   

A few thoughts on these announcements:

-         Compared to the reported announcements (via WSJ) from Google later today, Yahoo!’s Go announcements have a strong connection to consumer electronics and will have a much bigger impact over time than either Google Video or Google Pack. This is because it sets off a race among phone and device makers to tap into the Yahoo!’s large user base. But it’s also worrying because the investment that service providers have made in their own services is now to tie in users becomes less important if the user can take their services with them from phone to phone, provider to provider. I believe that device manufacturers will be more willing than their provider counterparts to let users choose between Yahoo!, Microsoft, and Google mobile solutions – or mix and match as they please.

-         Go Mobile in particular expands Yahoo’s reach beyond the desktop – Yahoo! stated that there are 2 billion mobile phone users around the world, compared to 900 million Internet users). To this point, Yahoo! allows for the first time new sign-ups to a Yahoo! account via Go Mobile.

-         Yahoo!’s promise to keep the platform open will be closely watched. At the conclusion of his speech, Terry Semel said “Personally, I believe that walled gardens are a thing of the past.” But what Yahoo! is doing is in many ways constructing a different kind of walled garden, albeit, one where Yahoo! serves as the gateway to the world of Internet content. For example, Yahoo! Go Mobile will allows users to access non-Yahoo! email accounts, as long as they are POP enabled. But this has to be set up via Yahoo! Mail and in this case, through Yahoo!’s paid Mail Plus service.

To put all of these announcements in perspective, I had an interesting discussion with Cammie Dunaway, Yahoo!’s CMO. She said, “Users don’t have an emotional bond with Google. But they have one with us.” To some degree, I agree with her on this. Google has a strong brand and has built a great deal of trust and goodwill thanks to its great search experience. But I don’t have my have my life on Google – it’s actually on Yahoo!. (Disclosure: My photos are on Yahoo! and Flickr, tags are on del.icio.us, personal email (and domain) are on Yahoo!, and I use Yahoo! Local and Maps regularly.) This could change as Google and Microsoft increase and improve their services, but it will take a lot to tear me away from my established habits. Having Yahoo! now also available on my devices potentially increases that stickiness.

My colleague Josh Bernoff, who is here at CES with me, used a car analogy to illustrate this. Yahoo! is like a tricked out Lincoln Navigator – it has everything you could ever want, from the DVD player and is comfortable to boot. You practically live in that car. Google’s car representation would be the Prius, which is environmental – its users have an emotional attachment to it for a completely different reason.

So here’s my question to you, dear blog readers. Do you have an emotional attachment to Google, or any other portal/search service? To what degree can Yahoo!, Google, Microsoft, AOL, et. al. develop that bond with you? Or is it not about emotional attachments and all about utility. Would love to get your perspective, either in comments or directly via email.  

I invited my colleague, Charlie Golvin, to write a review of Google Local for Mobile because: 1) Charlie's the Forrester consumer wireless analyst; and 2) I have a Blackberry which isn't supported by the new service. As you'll see below, Charlie has access to *many* different types of phones! Hope you enjoy his perspective.

Google released its Google Local for Mobile application today. It’s a Java app that brings much of the functionality of Google Local to the mobile phone, adapted for the small screen environment in mostly the clever way that you would expect from those wicked smaht folks. To download the app you can either navigate on your phone’s browser to http://google.com/glm and answer the questions the site poses to you regarding carrier, phone maker, and phone model, or you can use your desktop browser to answer the same set of questions and have Google send your phone an SMS with the link to the right version of the app (provided you don’t mind giving Google your phone number, just like you didn’t as a latecomer to Gmail). If you’re on a network like Verizon, Alltel, or US Cellular that uses BREW applications, you’re out of luck — presumably because this free app doesn’t make it worthwhile for Google to pay Qualcomm, and because Google doesn’t want to go through the carriers but prefers to distribute directly. So, if you’re a Cingular, T-mobile, or Sprint subscriber, have at it.

I actually played with GLM on three different phones — a Motorola ROKR, a Nokia 7610, and a Samsung SPH-A940, only the first of which is listed as supported by Google. For the Nokia I chose a version for another Series 60 phone (the 6620) and the Samsung auto-detected as a slightly older model. In both of these cases there were a few small anomalies that were annoying but far from rendered the app unusable. By far the best features were the automatic click-to-dial associated with any search result, and the driving directions. Each step in the directions is rendered on the map as a text box pointing on the map to your point along your journey, you press the ‘3’ key to advance to the next step and ‘1’ for the previous.

For those who have already become used to the SMS interface to Google Local, this app is unlikely to alter your behavior in areas you know well. However, when traveling out of your comfort zone you will likely prefer the Java app primarily for the mapping feature. My main criticism is that the satellite imagery serves no useful purpose on such low resolution displays, and only serves to drive up network usage while degrading performance — stick with the maps.

While the carriers may bemoan the fact that Google is taking traffic from their own yellow pages and directory information services, in truth this is a very good thing for them. The familiar Google interface as a simple extension of the desktop experience will drive users to consume more data on their phones, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean revenue for carriers like Sprint who price data flat, it means that consumers are shifting their behavior from voice to voice and data -- which is the most significant impediment to the adoption of other data services today.