by Josh Bernoff

This post will be personal, since there are a lot of exciting things happening to me/us right now.

First, we're less than two weeks away from Forrester's Consumer Forum. Charlene and I are both speaking. In case you haven't been to one of these, we try to pack them with as much value and excitement as possible, which means that Charlene and I are both polishing our speeches to a high sheen. Those speeches will be filled with some of the most powerful content from the book Groundswell -- ideas and examples that will be seen for the first time anywhere in Chicago on October 11 and 12. Those of you there will see what I hope is a real, actionable framework for how to create business success in the groundswell based on the four steps in what we call the POST method:

P = profile (what are your customers doing in the groundswell?)
O = objectives (what are you trying to accomplish?)
S = strategy (how are you trying to change your relationship with customers?)
T = technology (what social technologies will you use?)

If your social strategy starts with the T, you should come and find out why we think you're doing it backwards!

Second, at the event we ask pointed questions of high-level speakers. We work hard on coming up with those questions that will really get people to talk about stuff you haven't heard before. If you have a question for these people, post it in the comments below -- if we like your idea, we'll ask them on stage. The speakers are:

• Robbie Bach, President of the Entertainment and Devices Division at Microsoft.
• Richard Edelman, CEO of Edelman Public Relations
• Gian Fulgoni, Chairman of Comscore
• Christie Hefner, CEO of Playboy
• Henry Jenkins, MIT Professor and author of Convergence Culture
• Kevin Johnson, Digital Organization Leader, Services Division at Acxiom Digital
• Christina Norman, President of MTV Networks

Third, we're presenting the Groundswell awards at the event. We've picked the winners and they're pretty amazing applications -- some you've heard of, some you surely haven't. (If you can't make it, watch this space for announcements featuring the winners.) You may see me wearing this bowtie, which matches something else we're working on . . . that you'll see at the event.

Finally, the content for Groundswell is racing to a close. HBS Press has received and shared with us its peer reviews, which were mostly favorable, and had a lot of good suggestions. We'll be completing the manuscript in October, which means you can see it in . . . May of 2008.

If you just can't wait, click here and order one and you'll get it at the first possible moment. (I couldn't believe this is up and taking orders so far in advance.)

We're also trying to figure out the details of how Groundswell can become, not just a book or a Web site, but an ongoing experience for as many social strategists as possible.

I can't wait to see you in Chicago.

Tags: Forrester Consumer Forum, Groundswell awards, POST method, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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Apologies for the short notice, but I'm going to be giving a free Forrester Webinar on the use of Social Technographics (explanation is available in this post) on Wednesday, September 26th at 11am EST. Here's the description:

Don’t yet believe or don’t clearly see how social technologies can apply to your industry? Or perhaps you’re currently struggling with prioritizing across a vast array of social technologies and need to identify how your audience uses social technologies and how it will evolve over time.

We invite you to join us for a complimentary Forrester Webinar "Know Your Customers’ Social Technographics And Craft The Right Social Marketing Strategy " on Wednesday, September 26 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (5 p.m. Central European Time).

This Webinar, hosted by Vice President, Principal Analyst Charlene Li, will emphasize the necessity of understanding your target audience’s attitudes and behaviors towards social technologies in order to craft a truly fruitful social marketing strategy. Forrester will elaborate on the concept of Social Technographics and demonstrate that it is possible to reap the fruit of consumer power by knowing their profiles, social technology usage and motivations. Not only is that critical for today’s social engagement with your customers, but it is also paramount for an anticipatory approach of tomorrow’s usage shift and audience maturation. 

This Webinar will address:

- How are consumers using social technologies?

- How are marketers using social technologies to reach their customers?

- How do social technologies integrate with interactive marketing?

Register for the complimentary Webinar here.

Hope to see you there!

Tags: social technographics, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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News from WSJ is that Microsoft is looking to take a 5% stake in Facebook for an investment rumored to be between $300-500 million. That would place Facebook's between $6-10 billion.

It's that last number that has people swooning -- how could a business that didn't exist just a few years ago be worth THAT much?!?!! Especially when a year ago, Yahoo! was rumored to be willing to pay $1 billion for Facebook.

Let's break it down. First, Facebook has significantly changed its business from a year ago. It now is open to anyone, not just college students. Moreover, the advent of its open platform means that it any developer worth his or her salt is writing a Facebook app.

This is a crucial point -- I wrote a year ago that  "as Facebook opens up and grows beyond its core membership of college students, it will have to replace the context of the college campus with content and experiences that people share". Today, I can find out where my friends have traveled, challenge them to a game of chess, or support them in their favorite causes. Facebook has created a platform and ecosystem that sustains and can grow the community that's there.

And grown it has. This past August, Facebook had 19 million monthly visitors in the US according to Nielsen Netratings, compared to 9 million a year ago. Facebook says that it has 42 million active users worldwide. At a valuation of $6 billion, those 30 million visitors are worth $142 a piece, and at a $10 billion valuation they are worth $238 a piece. That's lifetime value -- over the course of that person's relationship with Facebook, it's the belief that a member will generate that much in advertising and commercial value for Facebook.

Ad spending is roughly $2500 per adult in the US (about $250 billion in US ad spending divided by 100 million US adults). $200-$333 represents between 6-10% of ad spend. If people spend as much time as they potentially could within Facebook, those numbers are feasible.

Why an investment at this time? Facebook's ultimate goal appears to be an IPO, likely in 2009, because they want to solidify their business and advertising base. That means they'll need to buy time and a large amount of cash from a strategic partner -- or a large institutional round -- will give them the leverage to also make strategic acquisitions ahead of an IPO.

Two thoughts about why Facebook would want an investment with Microsoft. First, they already are working together. Microsoft sells the display ads that are targeted against profile information, and will make up about half of the $150 million in revenues Facebook will generate this year. This is part of a multi-year agreement that will extend until 2011. And Facebook's unique marketing value is that not only can the display ads be highly targeted at actual profile elements, but marketers can also develop a deeper relationship with Facebook members -- marketer relationships that Microsoft has in spades.

Second, Facebook needs to scale up a business that's both consumer-oriented and also developer friendly. Microsoft has excellent developer relationships and also knows a thing or two about how to build successful consumer (and business -- watch this space carefully) applications.

Microsoft's interest is obvious -- it wants a stake in one of the hottest companies out there. If they couldn't outright buy Facebook (they tried last year) they'll settle for a piece and make sure that no one else -- like Google or Yahoo! -- can be a part of the party.

Tags: Facebook, Microsoft, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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by Josh Bernoff

I just finished reviewing the 78 submissions for the Groundswell Awards. All I can say is, wow! People are doing some pretty incredible work out there.

We are still determining the winners. Please don't call or write -- you already sent in your entry, and we have looked them all over in quite a lot of detail. (If you haven't sent one it, get ready for next year, because it's just too late to submit one now!)

But I wanted to share some of what I learned from reviewing all the submissions.

• People still think of social technologies more for marketing (speaking) than anything else, but we got good entries in all the categories. Here are how the submissions laid out by category (some tried in multiple categories, so this adds to more than 100%).

22% Listening
32% Speaking
10% Energizing
23% Supporting
15% Embracing
14% Managing
10% Social Impact

• The diversity is incredible. We saw people using Facebook, MySpace, and their own communities; companies in telecom, financial services, automotive, packaged goods, and academics; and applications aimed at everybody from politically active consumers to young women to stock traders. The social virus is spreading, and nobody is immune. Among our favorites (fun to talk about . . . doesn't necessarily mean they'll win a prize) are a college campus in Argentina that runs itself with an online community and a site for people potty training their kids. One guy sent in his thesis. Plus the site where you can design your own part of the US-Mexico border fence. Of course, some of them were lame-o, but reviewing the whole set was a real eye-opener.

• What matters most is results. We said we would recognize the best sites, not the most beautiful. We were strongly influenced by statements of results. Many, many people who are doing social projects out there didn't know what they hoped to accomplish, or couldn't prove they accomplished anything. I find it interesting that the more categories your entry fits in, the less likely it is to have proven business value. In the end, it's business value that will separate the winners from the rest.

Just a reminder -- we'll be announcing the winners at the Forrester Consumer Forum, taking place October 11 and 12 in Chicago. You should come! Why? (1) you'll get to see who won the awards. (2) You'll get to see incredible speeches from Richard Edelman, Christina Norman (president of MTV), Christie Hefner (CEO of Playboy), Microsoft's Robbie Bach, and Professor Henry Jenkins, the fan culture wizard of MIT. And (3) Charlene and I are giving the keynote speech and unveiling some of the ideas from the book Groundswell for the first time.

We'll talk more about the winners right here in the blog, after the event is over.

Tags: Groundswell awards, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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by Josh Bernoff

My iPhone manual says:

Do not drop, disassemble, open, crush, bend, deform, puncture, shred, microwave, incinerate, paint, or insert foreign objects into iPhone.

Not a word about putting it in a blender, though. I wonder if George wright has violated the warranty?

Tags: Blendtec, www.willitblend.com, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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by Charlene Li

I'm in the midst of writing a chapter on the enterprise use of social technologies and I noticed that Salesforce.com employee Clara Shih (an AppExchange Product Manager and author of the AppExchange blog) has teamed up with a software engineer at Facebook, Todd Perry, to create FaceForce. This AppExchange app integrates Facebook profiles *into* Salesforce -- so it's not really a Facebook application so much as it's tapping into Facebook's APIs. Jeff Grosse has an excellent write-up and a Flash demo is also available from Clara (BTW, she's pretty darn smart).

For those of you unfamiliar with AppExchange, it's the equivalent of Facebook for the enterprise. Outside developers can create custom applications that sit on top of Salesforce, for example, enabling politicians to use Salesforce to manage their campaigns. So it's very fitting that Salesforce and Facebook join forces here to integrate their services.

Here is a screenshot from Jeff that shows the Contact page within Salesforce with the Facebook integration. Note that you can interact with many of the Facebook features -- yes, you can even poke Marc Benioff.

The result: we'll see more and more people using Facebook for business purposes, driving Facebook sign-ups in the process. Let's say you're a typical marketing person in a B2B company -- why on earth would you join Facebook if you're friends aren't on there? Well, maybe your customers are and if you're a Salesforce subscriber, you may have just hit the jackpot. You have to first find and friend your contacts before you can see them in Salesforce. What if they aren't Facebook members? You'll ask them to join.

And that will change the nature of Facebook, for better or worse. I've already resigned myself to the fact that I will have two Facebook accounts -- one that is public facing and another with my private email address where my "real" friends are. Take a wild guess which one is more active -- yup, my public account. (This is partly because my most of my friends aren't on Facebook yet, and partly because I'm already too busy living my public life on it to invest in my private Facebook network.)

But I also think Faceforce doesn't go far enough -- yet. Sure, I can see Facebook information inside Salesforce, but the real power of social networks in a business context, as LinkedIn has shown, is the ability to find and connect with new people. While there is a LinkedIn AppExchange app, it inserts Salesforce information into LinkedIn, not the other way around. What I want is something like Visible Path that would help me trace relationships between contacts, but overlaid on top of Facebook's social graph.

What's that you say, privacy is a concern? Well, not if you use Facebook correctly. Marc Benioff and I have several friends in common -- I can see this by simply comparing my friends list against Marc's. Ideally, Faceforce would automatically tell me this, exposing the various connections between me and Marc (yup, this is something that LinkedIn does automatically). The key would be to build a referral request into the existing options in the Lead screen (again, thanks Jeff) include "Find Lead on Facebook" and "Invite Lead to join Facebook" when it should also include "Ask for a referral to Lead on Facebook".

So there's been a lot of talk about the business use of Facebook, and the example above points to a fundamental flaw with Facebook -- it's not really geared to make referrals easy because of its historical closed network structure. Building truly useful social business applications on top of Facebook's social graph -- regardless of whether the app resides in Facebook or outside of it -- needs this

It is still very, very early in the Facebook and social network application space, and even more so on the enterprise side. I can imagine further initiatives that use widgets to bring Facebook and LinkedIn information into enterprise environments like Microsoft's Sharepoint and IBM's WebSphere. If you have other ideas of how social business applications and integrations will manifest themselves, I would love to hear about them. Add your thoughts in the comments or email me.

Tags: Faceforce, Salesforce, Facebook, LinkedIn, Visible Path, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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by Josh Bernoff

Prof. Lynda M. Applegate at the Harvard Business School writes:

[D]isruptive changes . . . can be viewed from 2 very different perspectives—as an opportunity or as a threat. In fact, entrepreneurs often view disruptive change as a source of opportunity. When they see a disrupted business environment—whether that disruption is from new technologies, new business models, or new regulations—they ask, "How can I leverage these changes to create value?"

But established companies often approach innovation and disruption much differently. Having worked hard to align strategy and organization to support the current business, they develop tunnel vision, encouraging employees, customers, suppliers, and partners to work together to deliver today's business results. Even when disruptive opportunities are identified, tightly aligned organizations, business models, and industry relationships make it tough to respond quickly and effectively. As a result, executives in established firms often frame disruption as a threat. When they see changes happening, they work to defend their existing business model and ask, "How can I insulate against these disruptive threats and preserve my current business model?"

Prof. Applegate's point is interesting in the context of the groundswell. The groundswell is full of threats since you are no longer in control of your brand -- your customers are. Seeing this as an opportunity takes guts.

I have just decided this is what the next 12 months of my life is about -- helping you to find opportunity, not just threat, in social technologies. It's harder than it looks.

Tags: Lynda Applegate, Harvard Business School, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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