Up until now, paid services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO have dominated US online video viewing, particularly for long-form, TV-style content. Uptake of ad-supported, TV-style online video has been slower; traditional TV providers control much of this content, and they’ve been cautious about making their programming available outside the lucrative TV bundle. Even if many viewers want to cut the cord, they may not follow through as they realize they cannot get all the content they want. YouTube, of course, has a massive ad-supported online video business that has been growing healthily according to our calculations. However, even YouTube falls short of Netflix in terms of downstream bandwidth consumption, and its estimated ad revenue is only a small fraction of traditional TV ad revenue. For online video ad spend to show meaningful growth, consumer-generated or web-only content won’t be enough. A truly robust online video ad market will require the migration of traditional TV content to digital platforms.
This migration appears to be gathering momentum. Recently, we have seen a number of developments that could drive the uptake of ad-supported online video and that indicate that 2017 could be the year when ad-supported online video starts to make a splash.
The explosion of TV channels, on-demand content and OTT services continues to erode audiences. On the whole, Forrester’s Technographic data shows that consumers in EU5 countries (UK, FR, DE, IT, SP) watch on average as much TV in 2016 as they did in 2014. But the split is shifting in favor of online TV, in particular among millennials which will become increasingly difficult to reach through conventional linear TV media plans.
The fragmentation of TV content across sources shrinks audience sizes, and makes TV planning inefficient. Programmatic TV could be the answer to cross-screen, audience based planning, but the road is long and paved with obstacles. Programmatic buying is penetrating pockets of broadcaster inventory, but the level of implementation varies across countries, across broadcaster and across inventory type. The big question, of course, is whether programmatic ever makes it to linear TV advertising and becomes a viable tool to plan TV campaigns.
What is often missing from this discussion is the journey TV broadcasters have embarked on to collect and activate audience insights across their properties, and the wealth of data that is already available to test or experiment with audience-based buying within their inventory.
In the “European Marketers Get Ready For Data-Driven TV Planning" report, I break down how various TV / video inventory types will transition to different forms of programmatic over time, and explain why marketers will not have to wait for programmatic to infuse data intelligence into their TV media plans. Read the report to find out commonly missed opportunities in terms of audience optimization in TV planning.
If you are, like me, deeply involved with digital advertising, one of the industry mantras of the last few years was anything with a taste of “PROGRAMMATIC.”
Yes, you can say it with me now: “PRO·GRAM·MAT·IC.” Ahhhh.
In reality, I think that we are only starting now to truly see programmatic methods and techniques adopted by ad sellers and buyers. Finally, in 2014 we have seen marketing leaders driving their digital media buying practices forward by combining rich customer data with algorithmically driven buying platforms to make digital advertising dollars more effective in reaching target audiences. And, while there is a long road ahead of us before the robots become self-aware, there are some key trends shaping the industry that point to a more sophisticated future for media buying:
1) Budget increases - Major brands and massive holding companies have huge goals for programmatic spending. With P&G striving to buy 70% to 75% of digital ads programmatically by the end of the year, Google striving for 60% of digital marketing budget on programmatic, and what seems like an arms race amongst the holding companies to see who can spend more programmatically, the future of software-driven media buying looks bright.
2) Growth in TV-land - As marketing leaders have started to up the ante for programmatic, sellers have taken notice, specifically across video and TV. The buzz about programmatic TV is taking hold, and we are seeing a new generation of ad tech commit to solving that problem for advertisers.
This is a guest post by Samantha Merlivat, a researcher serving Marketing Leadership professionals.
Forrester’s Western European Online Display Advertising Forecast projects that online display advertising spend will rise at a CAGR of 10.3% between 2014 and 2019, jumping from €7.3 billion to €11.9billion. Two factors will account for the double-digit growth rate:
Mobile display will pick up quickly over the next five years, with tablet taking off full speed in virtually every European market. With their larger screen real estate and growing role in customers’ path to purchase, tablet-based ads will grow at a 40.5% CAGR over the period, attracting a third of total online display revenue by 2019.
Video and rich media formats are also growing strong. Video in particular will increase 20% annually over the next five years. Attracted by the higher opportunities for story-telling and building engagement, marketers will be willing to invest higher CPMs in these formats.
With 44% of all retail sales in Europe set to be offline sales that are influenced by the Web in 2018, it's not surprising that online display advertising spend in Europe will grow more than three times faster than total advertising spend over the next five years. Forrester's Online Display Advertising Forecast shows that online display advertising will continue to cannibalize advertising spend via other channels.
Firms are increasingly using video and rich media to engage, entertain, and attract the attention of online users and to enrich their brand storytelling. The growth of mobile device adoption and usage is also changing the way that users consume content:
1.Video: Google recently stated that video had entered a fourth dimension, incorporating sight, sound, motion, and interactivity to win the hearts and minds of video viewers. With more than 100 hours of video uploaded to YouTube every minute, Google has created YouTubeNation to curate video content and grow video audiences, especially among those ages 18 to 30.