At the end of this year, Forrester expects mobile Internet penetration to reach 17% in Western Europe — the same adoption rate for the PC Internet a decade ago. At that time, mobile phone penetration was still below the 40% threshold and mobile shops were opening at every high-street corner. Companies were only starting to launch their web presence and to anticipate the impact of the Web. Operator-branded mobile Internet solutions would only launch 3 years after and 3G in 2003/2004.
10 years after, the mobile Internet is reaching critical mass and a virtuous mobile Internet cycle is kicking off. Consumers who have a flat-rate data bundle spend more and more time on the Internet from their mobile phones, brands begin to launch their mobile Web presence to monetize these growing audiences and engage with their customers via more relevant mobile content and services, which in turn attracts more and more consumers to unlimited mobile Internet tariffs.
The current economic climate will lengthen handset renewal cycles, foster the development of low-cost offerings, and boost the uptake of SIM-only contracts. Operators are likely to postpone major investments in new networks such as 4G / Long-Term Evolution, despite early trials and commercialization in the Nordics. However, it will only slightly reduce the pace of growth for those elements that stimulate mobile Internet usage: 3.5G and Internet-centric mobile phones as well as all-you-can-eat data plans will be widely available in the next five years. That's the reason why Forrester expects mobile Internet to grow to 39% by the end of 2014. That's a lower end point than for the PC Internet in 2004, but the growth curve per se looks quite the same.
I'm pleased to announce that Forrester's five year forecast is now complete and live on Forrester's site. It feels like this has been a long time in coming from my side too! Please see the full report for detailed explanations of the trends affecting overall marketing budgets and the growth of the channel in the forecast.
You may remember we previewed our forecast at Forrester's Marketing Forum at the end of April. If you cross reference this post to the one we posted as follow up to the forum, you will notice that the "% of all advertising spend" has changed. The absolute forecast is still the same, we just changed this calculation to make sure it was done in the same way as in years past. See below for the most recent release:
This research will certainly help marketers plan their channel strategies.
Here at Forrester we continue to see a lot of industry excitement around mobile marketing. In a recent survey more than 60% of mobile marketers told us they'd continue to increase their spending on the channel despite the bad economy. And according to our latest ad forecast, mobile marketing spending in the US will more than quintuple over the next five years.
There's just one problem: SMS is the only mass-reach mobile marketing channel, and no one -- not marketers, and certainly not users -- seems to like it much.
During my presentation at Forrester's Marketing Forum on April 23, I previewed Forrester's latest forecast of interactive marketing spend. We expect marketer spend on display media, search, email, mobile and social media to reach nearly $55 billion by 2014.
The last day of Nokia World, I interviewed Jeremy Belostock, the Head of NFC for Nokia's Device Experiences group.
NFC -- for those of you non-gadget types, like myself -- stands for "near field communication." And it is basically a functionality which allows mobile handsets to have "contactless" communication with other handsets, ear pieces, keyboards, other devices, even with out of home media, product packaging, kiosks, turnstiles, or anything where you can enbed an NFC-smartcard. Think of NFC as a tooll which allows you to use your mobile phone as your subway pass, your credit card, your change at a vending machine, or as a way to interact with media for additional information or promotions.
There are a few hurdles keeping NFC from becoming a mainstream application:
In this morning's opening remarks and keynote sessions, Olli-Pekka Kallasvio introduced the theme for Nokia World and the primary driver of Nokia's: To translate the internet into *your* internet. This means not only enabling customization of sites or content, but of course literally getting any information *you* need to live your life directly into your pocket.
Phrased differently, Nokia wants to put in your hand the power to be more in tune to the world around you.
This week, I join my colleagues Ben Gray, Chris Silva, Simon Yates and Jaap Favier in Barcelona at Nokia World 2008. The event is Nokia's annual showcase to announce new products, demo existing capabilities, and share innovations in mobillity to clients, partners, media, and industry analysts.