Last year, the number of smartphone subscribers in the world surpassed the number of feature phone subscribers. We expect the share of people using smartphones to grow at a rapid pace through 2020, when 87% of all mobile subscribers will have a smartphone. Several factors will drive this trend, including the falling average selling price of smartphones, the increasing availability of low-cost data plans, greater 3G penetration, and the continued rise of mobile messaging apps, social media, mCommerce, and mobile apps. The majority of new smartphone subscribers will come from Asia Pacific and Africa; the opportunity that developed markets present to handset manufacturers is primarily in the form of handset replacement. According to our recently published Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Global), in 2020 there will be more than 5.4 billion active smartphones in the hands of more than 3.6 billion subscribers across the globe. Some of the implications of rapid smartphone growth are as follows:
Shortening the smartphone replacement cycle in developed markets.In most developed markets, smartphone penetration is saturating; vendors are expected to launch programs like Apple’s iPhone Upgrade Program to increase smartphone sales by shortening the replacement cycle. And it’s not just the US; handset manufacturers or telcos may launch similar programs in other regions with high smartphone penetration, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the United Arab Emirates.
As change agents, CIOs, CTOs, and technology and strategy managers need to help design great mobile moments that drive revenue growth, improve the customer experience, and eventually help transform their organization’s business model. Technology will play a major role in this endeavor. To succeed, it is important to remember that:
There will not be one single new revolutionary mobile technology. Many mobile technologies are coming of age; their true potential will unfold through the intelligent combination of mobile technologies to support mobile moments. The goal for the CIO should not be to chase the latest mobile technology, but rather to combine emerging mobile technologies in the most effective manner.
Mobile has moved well beyond smartphones and tablets. Mobility is now embedded in nearly every business process in both the consumer and business markets. Wearables and all sorts of devices and machines are becoming part of the mobile universe. The Internet of Things will also have a strong mobile dimension.
CIOs must focus on the mobile technologies with the greatest user impact. As CIOs create their business technology (BT) agendas, they need to take a more proactive approach to understanding and investing in emerging technologies for competitive differentiation. CIOs need to identify and catalog the customer impact of the main emerging mobile technologies that will help their organizations thrive in the age of the customer.
You've probably heard about the Quantified Self (QS), a movement that aims to capture, analyze, and act upon data from the human body in the interest of better health, fitter athletes, and sharper minds. Today, QS is giving way to QW -- Quantified Workforce. A variety of technologies -- devices, software, services -- can quantify the health, fitness, mental acuity, timeliness, and collaboration of workers. Many of these services are ready for prime time, but present some challenges in implementing. These challenges aren't primarily technological; they're related to privacy, workers' rights, and human resources policies. Done right, though, quantifying the workforce can drive both top- and bottom- line growth in your company's business.
I've analyzed this trend in a new report, Smart Body, Smarter Workforce. Here are just a couple of examples of how quantifying the workforce can drive better business outcomes:
Lower the company's insurance rates. In January, 2014, Forrester predicted that insurance companies would offer lower rates to individuals who donned wearables -- and we are now seeing that response. In April, 2015, John Hancock announced an opportunity for buyers of its term and life insurance policies to earn up to 15% discount on their insurance rates by wearing a Fitbit, sharing the data with the company, and meeting certain activity levels.
Consumers and businesses around the globe have entered the mobile era, and technology management leaders are shifting their organizations’ business applications toward mobile. In order to effectively make this shift, mobile teams must change their practices to simultaneously improve agility and ensure a good customer experience. This is even more critical in China — a market with unique business scenarios, technology landscapes, and competitive environments.
I’ve recently published two reports focusing on using the mobile IDEA cycle for customer engagement, including part one and part two. In these reports, I assess the current state of mobile application development planning in China and highlight four key areas that enterprise architecture (EA) professionals should focus on in each stage, namely “Identify”, “Design”, “Engineer” and “Analyze”, to enable the success of the mobile IDEA cycle. I also provide examples of how to unleash the power of digital business by analyzing the strategic mobile practices of visionary Chinese firms and highlighting how they use systems of engagement. Some of the key takeaways:
A few weeks back I published a report entitled New Tools Make Hybrid Apps A Safer Bet. It’s my first report at Forrester, a brief on some of the changes happening in the hybrid application space and what they mean for application development and delivery (AD&D) pros. The topic is something I was noodling on before I joined Forrester and it was a natural topic for my first report.
I’ve been a contributor to the Apache Cordova project and written 4 books on the topic, and while a lot of developers are building hybrid apps using Cordova, broad adoption of the approach has been lacking. Don’t get me wrong, a lot of developers are using the framework, and there are a lot of apps out there, but we haven’t seen a lot of big name adoption. Developers eschew the hybrid approach for reasons both valid and invalid; recent changes in the hybrid space address some of those issues and should set the stage for broader adoption of hybrid. Check out the report and I would love to hear your feedback.
Often considered the poster child of digital transformation, APIs are proliferating at enterprises making industry-leading investments in mobile, IoT, and big data. As these initiatives mature, CIOs, CTOs, and heads of development are coming together with business leaders to manage and secure companywide use of APIs using API management solutions.
Forrester recently released a report that sizes and projects annual spending on API management solutions. We predict US companies alone will spend nearly $3 billion on API management over the next five years. Annual spend will quadruple by the end of the decade, from $140 million in 2014 to $660 million in 2020. International sales will take the global market over the billion dollar mark.
In interviewing vendors for this piece of research, we discovered a vast and fertile landscape of participants:
Startups have taken $430 million in venture funding, and so far have realized $335 million in acquisition value. In April 2015, pure-play vendor Apigee went IPO and currently trades at a valuation north of $400 million.
Forrester has just published its 2015 US Mobile Banking Functionality Benchmark. The report reveals important insights about the mobile offerings from the five largest retail banks in the US: Bank of America, Chase, Citi, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo. Forrester clients can find the full benchmark report here:
All of these bank brands are relatively strong, providing customers with the services and functionality they’ve come to expect from mobile apps and sites. But perhaps the most significant takeaway from our research is that no single bank is leading: When it comes to mobile, the big US banks are achieving parity, not breakthrough.
Overall, the US banks are meeting customer’s needs... The US banks achieved overall scores of 65 or higher out of 100, scoring particularly well for enabling a wide range of touchpoints and transactional features. All five banks have extensive functionality across bill pay transfers and P2P payments, like mobile remote deposit capture and adding a payee from within the app.
Small business is booming in the US. The US Small Business Administration declared this week as “National Small Business Week” to promote the role that small business plays in the US economy. Why should insurance companies pay close attention to the needs of small business? For starters, small businesses mean:
Big economic impact. Small business spells substantial opportunity. These small businesses comprise about 49% of private sector employment, and about 43% of private sector payrolls.[i] And as small business grow, that growth translates into the need for more insurance to cover employees, vehicles, and other liabilities.
New revenue streams. With self-driving vehicles tests planned in 30 cities by 2017, there’s trouble ahead for the industry’s cash cow, private passenger auto insurance.[ii] Small business insurance is one revenue stream that insurers can increase to counterbalance premium declines.
Much has been written about Google’s foray into the wireless service provider arena. Now Google has announced its push into this market with its Project Fi offering, which is based on the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) business model.
There is nothing revolutionary about Google’s wireless offering. Rather than acting as a market disruptor, Google has opted to enter the wireless market by launching a package similar to the one that Republic Wireless has provided in the US since 2011. So why should anyone pay attention to Google Fi? Because Google is a very large and powerful player in the mobile market. My main observations are that Fi is:
Unlikely to disrupt pricing in the US wireless market significantly. Google Fi's pricing is a fixed $20 unlimited talk/text plan plus $10 per GB of data, plus tax; a 3GB data package will cost users about $55 per month. Interestingly, users don't pay for data that they don't use, and many Fi users will not use their full data packages: For instance, the average Republic Wireless user pays only $7.50 to $8 per month for data. Still, for penny pinchers, pure Wi-Fi plans are much cheaper. The most attractive part of the deal is the roaming aspect – but only for overseas travelers.
American and Canadian insurers are facing some big challenges in 2015. Customer experience expectations, their willingness to consider a growing array of new options to buy insurance, and new competitors creeping into the business of insurance are pushing traditional insurers into new digital strategies. It’s no longer a question of digital channels or “other” when it comes to the customer journey; they’re now intertwined. Digital-dependent customers are eyeing new and more digitally savvy market entrants, while demanding more control over the experience and how their personal information is used. This year, digital insurance teams are crafting agendas that satisfy their firm’s hunger for increase market share and revenue balanced with changing demographics, adaptations in response to extreme weather, and regulation that has lagged the changing realities of digital. One thing’s for sure: Insurance eBusiness teams can’t afford to wait around, but they also can’t afford to make the wrong digital decisions.
Just what are the factors propelling North American insurer agendas this year? For starters, it’s about:
Uneven economic growth in North America. The 2008 financial crisis? It’s a distant memory in much of the US, but not for all. By most measures, the US economy is thriving, driven by rising consumer demand for homes, cars, and consumer goods, and, by extension, insurance. And in oil-producing Canada the decline in gasoline prices isn’t good news: Canada is threatened with recession.