The most critical factor driving the Indian public sector over the next five years will be India’s 12th national five-year plan, which covers the period from 2012 to 2017. I have just published a report on the plan that provides a comprehensive review of India’s new government spending framework and what it means for ICT vendors looking to successfully position for success.
Forrester estimates that India’s public sector IT purchases will grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2012 and 2017, reaching $108.5 billion in 2017. In 2014, we anticipate a decrease in government spending due to parliamentary elections — but spending will pick up after the election, as maintaining GDP growth will be on the agenda of any new government. We believe that massive infrastructure investments and increasing citizen expectations will fuel public sector IT in spite of the 2014 parliamentary elections. Citizens are pressuring federal, state, and local government to become more proactive and interactive and to provide services in a more organized and user-friendly manner. A recent Forrester survey of government IT buyers in India spotlighted this heightened focus on citizen services:
Huawei hosted about 160 industry and financial analysts at its ninth annual analyst summit in Shenzhen, China in April 2012. The main takeaway for its consumer devices business was that consumer devices complete the end-to-end pitch for Huawei. Huawei showcased its growing capabilities across the wireless industry value chain. Most notably, Huawei made a foray into the smart devices domain with its own brand of smartphones and tablets. In 2011, Huawei shipped 20 million smartphones and 60 million mobile broadband devices like dongles. The smartphone market is already overcrowded with heavyweights such as Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and Motorola; thus, it might seem that Huawei may not be able to make a very profitable business from selling these devices. However, we believe that this move will bring indirect benefits to Huawei’s core Carrier Network division in the following two ways:
It spurs the uptake of smart mobile devices. Among all companies, Huawei is best suited to leverage manufacturing capabilities in its homeland, China, to mass-produce smart devices. Moreover, as it can manufacture processors in-house through its HiSilicon subsidiary, it can control and reduce the overall price of these devices. As price is a major buying criterion for consumers in regions like China, India, and the Southeast Asian countries, Huawei will be able to expedite the uptake of devices in these countries. Subsequently, the demand for data will increase and telecom operators in these countries will need to upgrade or roll out new technologies and networks (HSPA+, TD-LTE, FDD-LTE, dual-mode networks, etc.). This is where Huawei will benefit, as it will be able to position itself as an end-to-end supplier for telecom operators including hardware, professional and managed services, security solutions, servers, and storage.
I have recently published a report on enterprise mobility in India. Improving mobility infrastructure, including networks and devices, and business and workforce demand are fueling the growth of mobility within organizations. Mobility is being used not only to connect with customers, but also to connect with suppliers, partners, and employees. A few key takeaways from the report are that:
Interest in advanced mobile-enabled applications is increasing. There is a great impetus among enterprises in India to move beyond only mobile-enabling basic applications such as email, IM, contacts, and calendar. Twenty percent of enterprises plan to mobile-enable advanced applications like location-based services in the coming 12 to 24 months, while 37% of enterprises want to mobile-enable customer relationship management.
Mobility is among the top enterprise priorities for 2012 and investment is set to rise. For business decision-makers at enterprises and SMBs in India, provisioning mobility is one of the top three priorities in 2012. As a result, investment in all aspects of mobility — such as mobile devices, applications, middleware, and services — will increase.
The workforce wants employers to support mobility at work. The consumerization of smart mobility devices like smartphones and tablets is beginning to have an impact on the enterprise front. More than 60% of employees want to use smartphones at work.
Airtel launched India’s first 4G LTE services in Kolkata yesterday. Airtel delivers the service using TDD technology, making it one of the few operators globally to launch a TD-LTE network. The majority of commercial LTE launches are still based on FDD technology, which begs the question: What impact will TDD have on the LTE landscape? Will TD-LTE get support from equipment manufacturers, or will it suffer a fate similar to that of WiMAX? What does it mean for operators? I believe that TDD will affect the entire mobile ecosystem. Here’s how:
Price parity between paired and unpaired spectra. Both paired and unpaired spectra will be viewed as media that deliver wireless service irrespective of the underlying technology; this will drive price parity between the spectra. The dichotomy between the FDD spectrum (used primarily for coverage) and the TDD spectrum (mainly for capacity) will disappear as technological advancements make it possible to achieve similar capacity and coverage on both spectra. Consequently, the “spectrum crunch” may diminish, as any spectrum will be satisfactory for the deployment of mobile broadband services.
I presented the keynote at the Biztech2 event in Mumbai last week. It was a big evening, as almost all key Indian CIOs were present at the event. The theme of my keynote was “The Empowered BT CIO,” which triggered some interesting thoughts, as all of the discussions that I had after the presentation were mainly around “business” with hardly any mention of “technology.” Below are the key points mentioned by CIOs in my discussions with them:
“We do all the work and business leaders take all the credit. But if something goes wrong, we are the ones who get the blame.”
“The money is with the finance and marketing departments, and we have to depend on them for our budget. My CEO should change this structure.”
“I don’t have followers in my organization.”
“My organization doesn’t give me the same importance as it gives the CFO or CMO.”
“Through technology innovation, I helped the company reduce IT spending and save money.”
All of these points have one thing in common: “my present role and issues that I face today.” But no one talked about their future role! My response to them was consistent, as I categorically highlighted that CIOs have two options:
Continue with your current approach — but then the future role of the CIO will be dismal.
Step up and take the challenge to shape the business. Take it as an opportunity to transform your role in the empowered world.
The Indian government announced its 2012-2013 budget on March 16, 2012. While the announced budget does not contain direct incentives to promote the domestic ICT industry, there will be adequate indirect opportunities for vendors to explore. The excise duty will increase from 10% to 12%; this will have a marginal impact on the sale of PCs (desktops, laptops, and tablets), but the government’s focus on improving infrastructure, creating efficient delivery mechanisms, and improving e-governance will provide substantial indirect opportunities to IT vendors.
The latest budget aims to achieve long-term and inclusive growth for the economy and is in sync with my upcoming report, “India’s 12th National Five-Year Plan (2012-2017) Provides Massive ICT Opportunities.” The report answers questions such as why and how technology will act as a key enabler for the Indian government to achieve its growth target.
The 2012-2013 budget will provide adequate ICT opportunities for vendors, such as:
Packaged and industry-specific applications, e-governance, mobile apps, and analytics will support the strong need for sustainable revenue sources to fund investments. A common problem that India faces today is the significant imbalance between expenditures and revenues. The budget categorically highlights the need to deliver more with existing resources; we will witness increased demand for packaged and industry-specific applications, e-governance, and mobile apps to help generate sustainable revenue to fund investments. Also, the outlay for e-governance projects will increase by 210%, from the equivalent of US$62 million to US$192 million; applications from software vendors for e-governance initiatives will present some of the most exciting opportunities in India. And the government will use various analytical tools to improve revenue sources and take corrective actions by identifying gaps.
In their Asia Pacific Tech Market Outlook For 2012 report, Andrew Bartels and Frederic Giron show that government and business IT spending in the emerging markets of Asia (including China, India, and the ASEAN countries) will reach US$180 billion in 2012, growing by roughly 13% over 2011. While emerging Asia’s IT spending is surging this year, economic obligations in the developed markets of North America, Europe, and Japan will ensure continued austerity — and limited IT spending growth. In other words, emerging Asia is clearly a lucrative region of opportunities for US, European, Japanese, and South Korean vendors looking for new sources of growth to offset lower business prospects in their home markets.
Asia is a region of highly disparate countries, with regulatory complexity, cultural differences, and a limited pool of skilled resources. These barriers to entry and expansion will compel vendors to look beyond organic growth, which is simply too time-intensive. Instead, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of local/regional incumbents with local know-how, skills, and client relationships will increasingly be a strategic imperative for vendors targeting emerging Asia. I’ve highlighted some examples from the Indian market below, but I foresee similar trends in the overall ICT sector throughout emerging Asia:
In early February 2011, Amazon launched Junglee.Com as a marketplace in India. In 1998, Amazon had acquired Junglee (which means "wild" in English), an online virtual database-making company, and after 13 years now it has shown its affection to the "Junglee" domain name. The reason is that Amazon can’t sell directly in India due to FDI laws that restrict foreign companies on multibrand retail in the country. Nevertheless, the Indian law does allow foreign players to operate as an online marketplace to connect sellers and buyers with each other. Amazon is following this approach by partnering with both online (Snapdeal, Univercell, etc.) and offline (HomeShop18, Bombay Store, etc.) players in the country before it makes a full-fledged entry through an "Amazon.in"-type domain. Also, Amazon just received the Indian Government’s FDI approval to set up a logistics operation. The company plans to invest INR 15 crore (around US$ 3.06 million) to set up a wholly owned subsidiary to undertake the business of online marketplace operator and retailer inter-alia courier services.
Let’s look at what Amazon’s entry through Junglee.com means for online buyers, suppliers, and competitors:
As of late 2011, more than half the organizations we surveyed in Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APEJ) are either currently using or actively planning cloud initiatives — 52% in fact. This number has nearly tripled since 2009.
But adoption rates alone don’t tell the whole story. Vendor strategists should also be closely tracking how organizations evolve from ad hoc, disjointed cloud projects to well-defined, effectively managed cloud procurement. Our recent survey results indicate a surprising degree of maturity across the region — along with some clear areas for growth.
Centralized IT procurement of cloud services varies widely across the region. Australia (82%) and India (83%) currently lead in driving centralized procurement and management of cloud services through IT. Both markets are well above the regional average of 74%. This is no surprise for Australia, which is the most mature market for cloud computing in the region. But the strong results for India are surprising, and indicate the strong potential for a sharp increase in demand for cloud services over the next six to 12 months as early projects begin delivering positive returns. Only 66% of respondents in China are currently centralizing cloud procurement and management — not unexpected given the relative lag in cloud adoption in China relative to other APEJ markets.
Organizations in China are least likely to have a formal cloud strategy in place. Fifty-six percent of respondents in China currently see unsanctioned buying by the business outside of IT. This is the highest rate in APEJ by far, where the average is 35% and there are lows of 23% in Australia and 25% in Singapore.
The Department of Information Technology (DIT) of India recently launched a paper on “Framework for Mobile Governance” that aims at providing fast and easy access of public services to citizens through mobile devices. In view of the limited success of the e-governance initiative in India (low Internet and PC penetration coupled with implementation-related issues), the shift in the government’s approach to using mobile as an alternative delivery medium for public services is a step in the right direction. According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), there were roughly 894 million wireless subscribers in India as of December 31, 2011, and it is encouraging to see that the government is finally realizing the importance of mobile in achieving its e-governance initiative. I have taken key highlights from the mobile framework published by DIT:
Creation of a cloud-based Mobile Services Delivery Gateway (MSDG) based on open standards, which will be shared with all central and state government departments and agencies at nominal cost to facilitate e-governance services delivery on mobile devices.
Incorporation of various channels such as voice, text (email and SMS), GPRS, USSD, SIM Toolkit (STK), cell broadcast (CBC), and multimedia (MMS) for mobile-based services.
Development of mobile-complaint sites for all government departments and agencies based on open standards.
Creation of a government mobile app store which will be integrated with MSDG.
Development of an integrated payment gateway for citizens to pay taxes and bills for other public services through mobile.
Integration of mobile infrastructure with the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) platform.