Forrester’s First-Ever Online Retail Forecast For Asia Pacific Now Live

Zia Daniell Wigder

After years of looking at how the online markets of Asia Pacific are emerging from an online shopping perspective, we are thrilled to announce our first online retail forecast for China, Japan, South Korea, India and Australia.* Some findings from the forecast:

  • Japan still takes the top spot in the region. Japan retains its dominance in the region with some $45 billion in online retail sales this year. Indeed, while China’s combined B2C and C2C spending surpasses B2C spending in Japan, Japan is still the leader in traditional online retail sales. And despite the fact that online consumers in Japan are purchasing across a wide variety of categories, some category purchases like beauty have shifted online in Japan in a way they have not in the US or Europe.
  • China’s growth rates will propel it ahead of Japan in the very near future. China’s combined  B2C and C2C sales — the two are nearly impossible to separate** — are poised to reach $49 billion in 2010. China’s CAGR will be double that of the US, Western Europe and Japan, and it’s clear that China will be the eCommerce market most likely to rival that of the US.
  • Australia’s robust growth will be driven by an increasingly vibrant online retail sector.  The online marketplace in Australia is marked today by a large number of cross-border transactions, but there is growing momentum among local players. Though less than half the size of the online retail markets in Japan and China, Australia’s growth rates are slightly higher than those of Japan and its US and Western European counterparts.
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From The HP Archives: Lessons Learned On Market Entry

Jennifer Belissent

International orders grew 34% for HP . . . not this year but actually back in 1964 when non-US orders accounted for 23 percent of HP’s revenues.  While the growth of non-US tech revenues is in the news today, HP’s international orders first exceeded domestic orders not recently but as far back as 1975.

In my research on market entry and market opportunity assessment (MOA), I recently spoke to strategists at HP about how they evaluate markets.  As I was leaving the building, I stopped in to the HP museum and spent some time with the HP archivist.   The highlights of the visit include seeing the first HP device built in the now famous Palo Alto garage and a calculator that brought back memories of my father in his overstuffed chair “figuring out how to pay for college.”  I was not only impressed by the history embodied in that room but also with the value that HP places on recording and memorializing its “life” as an organization.  Not to sound too sappy but it really brings the company and the industry to life.

I’ve spent the last few weeks reading through some documents on the history of HP’s entry into international markets.  There are valuable lessons to be gleaned from their experiences.   I’ve written about many of those lessons in reports and blog posts but thought I'd draw out a few of them here.

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Building B2B Markets: One Entrepreneur at a Time

Jennifer Belissent

Last December I wrote about Building B2B Technology Markets, looking at how to penetrate a market with almost none of the traditional characteristics of a mature technology market? As technology vendors increasingly look to emerging markets as a significant opportunity and source of growth, this question becomes more pressing.  The report explored some of the elements of Cisco’s Country Transformation initiatives in order to identify steps in the process of building market infrastructure:

For example, the report looked at partnering with governments to encourage market-friendly policies and investment in the necessary technology infrastructure to support market development and overall economic growth.  And, from a sales perspective, trade associations provided an alternative channel to reach small and medium businesses in markets where distributors and resellers weren't available.  

But, another element critical to successful market development is the ecosystem of partners developing solutions specific to the particular market, or even just contributing local innovation for new approaches to broader global issues.   Building B2B Technology Markets discussed finding local organizations to act as partners in the market, and even investing in educational initiatives, but missed the next step of how to help create these new local ecosystem partners. 

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