According to data from Forrester’s Consumer Technographics® Asia Pacific Online Benchmark Survey, 2016, in the past three months Amazon has, for the first time since 2014, surpassed Flipkart as the preferred online retail destination for consumers in India’s metropolitan areas. Amazon’s takeover has been rapid: 30% of respondents in our 2014 survey reported buying from Amazon; this year, 76% said they did. Compare this with Flipkart’s essentially flat growth: from 63% in 2014 to 68% in 2016. Snapdeal remains far behind both Amazon and Flipkart.
The web impacted more than a third of total retail sales in 2015 and will impact 48% by 2020. Smartphones are becoming consumers’ most widely used mobile device, and consumers are using them to find information about a product irrespective of their location. They use them to research products, even when they are shopping in physical stores; to compare prices with online retailers; to check specifications; and to read user reviews. This behavior is making the web a more powerful medium — one that retailers can no longer ignore. We expect web-influenced retail sales in Asia Pacific to reach $2.1 trillion in 2020, up from $1.2 trillion in 2015.
South Korea leads in web-impacted sales . . . High penetration rates for the internet, smartphones, online retail, social media, online payment options, and messaging platforms are powering the web’s impact on retail sales in South Korea. Similar factors mean that Japan, China, and Australia closely follow South Korea in terms of web-impacted sales.
The holy grail of digital advertising is accurately determining who to target, when to target them, and what products to highlight. Data management platforms (DMPs) facilitate smarter media buying by unifying data from multiple sources to allow more accurate and detailed audience segmentation. In our recently published Ad Technology (Data Management Platforms) Forecast, 2016 To 2021 (US), we take a more in-depth look at the market. We examine demand for DMPs that support the programmatic advertising ecosystem, including platforms from vendors such as Adobe, Google, IgnitionOne, Krux, Lotame, Neustar, Oracle, and Wunderman (KBM Group). We conclude that:
• DMPs have hit a tipping point, driving continued robust growth. While the US DMP market is relatively small at $500 million, we expect to see robust 43% annual growth over the 2015 to 2021 period. We believe DMPs reached a tipping point in the past year or two as both marketers and publishers became increasingly aware of their benefits. CMOs are focusing on improving their marketing and advertising ROI, and DMPs demonstrate tangible value by clearly organizing data into taxonomies, identifying intent to purchase, and yielding higher conversion rates.
In the age of the customer, customer-obsessed firms serious about personalizing customer experience invest in business intelligence (BI) and analytics tools. Companies collect more and more data on their clients today. BI software is increasingly important to extract information from the raw data, revealing insights. Analytics software tools go beyond traditional reporting and analysis to anticipate customer behavior and provide real-time insights.
The traditional BI market has matured, but still offers a significant growth opportunity. While business intelligence software is not a new product, Forrester projects robust growth for the solution. As we move into the Internet of Things era, an exponential increase in the number of connected devices will drive demand for BI software tools to understand the information. We expect the BI software market to grow at a 9% CAGR over the forecast period.
I joined Forrester recently as a senior forecast analyst on the ForecastView team focusing on business technology (BT) topics. What is ForecastView you ask? It’s a Forrester product that puts the numbers around our research reports by publishing a five-year quantitative outlook. To learn how our forecasts can help you with your investment decisions, read our ForecastView overview.
Our BT forecast team takes a look at cloud, security, IoT, business intelligence, marketing ad technology, Big Data, and other hot topics in the BT space. We launched our ForecastView BT bundle in 2015. In case you missed it, our three 2015 forecasts examined eCommerce platforms, cloud security, and API management. Some highlights:
Sizing The Cloud Security Market: Companies will spend $2 billion over the next five years to protect data in the cloud. We expect the market to grow at a staggering 40%+ CAGR over the next five years.
It is safe to say that online and mobile banking have hit mainstream. Today, more than half of all adults with a bank account in France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK use banking services — which we define as information requests, transactions, or alert delivery — on their PCs, tablets, or mobile phones. The uptake of tablets and smartphones gives banks an opportunity to engage their customers deeply across platforms. Our recently published Forrester Research Digital Banking Forecast, 2013 To 2018 (EU-7) explores how each Internet-connected device will drive future online and mobile banking adoption across seven key European markets.
The forecast identifies some key trends in the European digital banking market.
1. Mobile banking adoption continues its sturdy growth. As recently as 2009, mobile banking activity was negligible, representing fewer than 5% of all adults with accounts. Adoption has risen nearly fourfold since and will continue to grow at double-digit compound annual growth rates through 2018. However, consumer concerns about device security will restrain growth: In all the European countries we track other than Italy and Spain, consumers are more than twice as likely to cite security concerns as a reason for not using mobile banking than for not using PC/tablet online banking.
eCommerce is becoming more globally pervasive. Therefore, retailers must continually adapt their expansion strategies to reflect changing retail consumption behaviors. But what makes a country ready for eCommerce? When making investment decisions, it's certainly important to get the facts about macroeconomic conditions, Internet access, and consumer market size. However, there is much more driving the eCommerce market.
In order for firms to get a full view of a country’s online retail readiness, they must also consider its online activity, consumer payment behavior, and postal courier infrastructure. In a recent study conducted by Forrester's ForecastView team, we investigated 55 global economies to discern the readiness of each eCommerce market. The underlying quantitative framework captures 25 variables under four pillars: consumer behavior, merchant adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and the retail opportunity. The analysis is distilled in the Forrester Readiness Index: eCommerce (FRI).