If you search for “the death of email” on the Internet, you might be surprised by the number of articles on the subject. Why are so many people talking about it? Is this 40-year-old method of communication really under threat from social media? Does it mean that marketers will spend less on email marketing solutions? We paid close attention to these questions and many more when building the Forrester Research Email Marketing Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US). We believe that spending on email marketing solutions will continue to grow. Why? We will see:
1. An increase in the number of active email users. Our email address is our online address, and it offers us universal interoperability. As per our forecast, we expect the number of active email users in the US to grow to 227 million by 2017.
2. The evolution of email clients. Over the past 40 years, email clients have evolved from text-based to desktop to web-based to mobile clients. As per our forecast, 178 million users —78% of all US active email users — will also access their emails through mobile email clients by 2017.
3. Email’s integration with social media. Email marketers have started leveraging a combination of email and social media marketing to get the best results. They are providing links to share via social media in their email messages and are encouraging their social media followers to subscribe to their email lists.
In 1974, an Indian Bollywood Hindi-language film was released with the title Roti Kapda Aur Makaan (English translation: Food, Clothing, And Shelter), referring to the bare minimums of life. If it were to be released today, the director of the movie would need to add the word Internet to the title because access to the Internet has become a necessity for many people over the past decade.
In a recently published Forrester ForecastView report titled “Forrester Research World Online Population Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (Global),” Forrester found that 2.4 billion people across the world use the Internet on a regular basis — i.e., at least once a month — from home, school, work, or any other location via a PC or a non-PC (mobile) Internet access device. This is expected to grow to 3.5 billion by 2017, representing nearly half of the 2017 overall world population of 7.4 billion. Our forecast provides the details of the Internet population in 56 countries across five regions.
Mobile banking is on a steep rise in the US. Almost one-third of online bankers currently conduct banking activities through their mobile handsets, and this population is poised to more than double by 2017. As indicated in our recently published Forrester Research Mobile Banking Forecast, 2012 to 2017 (US), younger age groups (Gen Y and Z) and familiarity with PC banking are fueling thisrapid adoption.
While checking account balances is the most popular activity, receiving alerts is the fastest growing feature; users will triple in the next five years. And with growing consumer comfort, mobile transactions, such as transferring funds from one account to another, will more than double during the same time period.
Even with the increased use of instant messaging, SMS remains the workhorse of mobile — with a 14% increase in the number of SMS messages sent in 2011 compared with 2010. More than 2 trillion SMS messages were sent in the US in 2011, which equates to more than 6 billion SMS messages sent per day. Text messaging users send or receive an average of 35 messages per day. Although by 2017 SMS will dominate mobile content spend less than it does today, it will still remain significant.
More than 80% of worldwide app downloads in 2011 were for Apple and Android devices; these accounted for more than 16 billion downloads. Gaming apps dominate mobile app spending; this is driven by both an increase in the number of users playing games on their phones and the amount of in-game spend, which accounted for more than 60% of mobile gaming revenues. In the US, about 76 million mobile and tablet owners regularly play games on their devices; with only a third of these regularly downloading games, there’s a great opportunity for growth in both mobile advertising and mobile gaming revenues.
In two recently published forecasts — Forrester Research Mobile Adoption Forecast, 2011 To 2016 (Western Europe) and Forrester Research Mobile Adoption And Sales Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US) — we looked at mobile Internet usage across the US and 17 countries in Western Europe.* Tracking the evolution of mobile Internet usage allows us to understand changes in consumer behavior and to better understand such things as the rise of mobile commerce. We found that in 2011, less than one-third of mobile phone owners in Western Europe connected to the mobile Internet at least monthly; this equates to 100 million individuals. In the US, monthly mobile Internet penetration reached 114 million people, approaching half of handset owners. Even the UK, which is one of the leading proponents of mobile Internet usage in Europe, lagged the US, with less than 40% of mobile phone users connecting to the mobile Internet at least monthly.
European economic woes have almost certainly had an impact, but factors like higher smartphone penetration, competitive data plans, higher post-pay subscriber penetration, and the faster rollout of 4G networks and handsets in the US than in Western Europe help explain this difference. In 2011, more than 17 million US mobile phone users already had 4G compatible handsets compared with only 1.6 million in Western Europe.
We recently ran a poll on Forrester's Facebook page: “Which market do you think has a higher percentage of sales coming from online channels — US or UK?"
While most respondents thought the US leads in online retail sales, the answer is actually the UK. Per Forrester's ForecastView latest estimates from the Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2011 To 2016 (US) & (Western Europe), online retail sales in the US will top $200 billion, representing close to 7% of total retail sales of $3 trillion in 2011. Online retail sales in the UK will be £30.2 billion, representing 10% of total retail sales of £297 billion (per the Economist Intelligent Unit- EIU) in 2011.
The UK continues to have larger online channel share because:
The online buying population as a percentage of total population is higher in the UK.
UK online buyers’ average spend levels are slightly higher than those of US online buyers.
The UK population is more deal-sensitive and more prone to buying online.
Thanks to Tesco, online food (grocery) sales are a large contributor to online retail sales in the UK.
In hindsight, 2009 marked a turning point for the market research industry, when technology and innovation became part of the ongoing discussion on how to move the industry forward while balancing the realities of a business world in a recession.