US Mobile Payments Will Reach $142B By 2019

Denée Carrington

The media frenzy around mobile payments — most recently Apple Pay — has reached fever pitch and led some industry spectators to conclude that a payments revolution is at hand. Not so. The adoption of mobile payments is an evolution — not a revolution — and the evolution is well underway. Although the landscape of mobile payment providers is in an ongoing state of flux, the ecosystem and mobile capabilities are maturing and consumer and merchant adoption is accelerating.  Over the next five years, US mobile payments will grow from $52 billion in 2014 to $142 billion by 2019 with both national brands and local merchants.  Over the next five years, we can expect: 

  • Consumers undergoing a mobile mind shift will create new mobile moments in commerce. Over the last five years, US consumers have adopted smartphones at a breakneck pace – growing from just 19% in 2009 to 66% in 2014.As consumers integrate mobile into every aspect of their lives, they are turning to their mobile devices to get things done wherever they are. Consumers are undergoing a mobile mind shift: “the expectation that I can get what I want in my immediate context and moments of need. Their increasing reliance on their mobile phones gives rise to higher expectations — it has ushered in the emergence of mobile moments in which businesses can find new opportunities to meet or surpass customer expectations in payments and commerce.
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Three Disruptive Payment Trends In 2013: Greater Customer Value And Shifting Economics Will Shape The Future Of Payments

Denée Carrington

2013 will be a pivotal year in consumer payments. It will be marked by an increase in digital disruption by nimble, tech savvy competitors. Payments incumbents will leverage their market power to battle disruptors. We see early evidence of this with MasterCard's new fee structure for “staged” digital wallet providers such as Google Wallet, PayPal and Square, which mask the merchant of record and other transaction details from others downstream in transaction flow. Finally, merchants and consumers will wield their tremendous influence in picking winners and losers as the array of alternative payment options become more abundant, more accessible and begin to deliver greater value to the commerce experience. In my new report out today, titled “Three Disruptive Payment Trends in 2013,” I explore three trends, driven by digital disruption, that will shape the future of consumer payments. I provide an analysis of what each trend means for competitors across the payments ecosystem and provide recommendations for responding to the impending disruption. Here are the key takeaways:

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The Data Digest: Alternative Payment Methods In Europe

Reineke Reitsma

Consumer usage of alternative payment methods like contactless cards or mobile payments is still very limited in Europe, and the majority of European consumers aren’t interested in using these services (yet). But attitudes vary across Europe. In the UK, where consumers are more familiar with the concept thanks to public transport schemes like London’s Oyster card, about 4% of the population use contactless payment cards, and a further 22% are interested in using one. In Spain and Italy, a third of consumers show interest in such a payment system.

But security concerns and a lack of need are holding consumers back. While early adopters will more likely overcome them, these concerns represent a serious barrier to mainstream adoption.

While mobile digital wallets have received much of the recent buzz in the marketplace, digital wallets cover a much broader spectrum, as my colleague Denée Carrington explains in her post 'The Digital Wallets Wars Are The Next Phase Of The Payments Industry Transformation'. But moving the needle on the adoption of digital wallets will require adding significant value before, during, and after payment.

Consumers have little motivation to adopt a new payment solution if it is purely a one-for-one replacement. Digital wallets must instead increase the value of the transaction for both consumers and merchants. Winning solutions will bring this to life through greater convenience, contextual relevance, and a compelling purchase experience.

Forrester's CPS Practice Welcomes Our Newest Analyst - Denée Carrington!

Carlton Doty

Over the summer, I asked you all whether we are finally headed toward a cashless society. Since then the battle for the digital wallet has certainly heated up. Well today, I am thrilled to announce the newest addition to Forrester's Consumer Product Strategy practice. Her name is Denée Carrington, and she will be joining us as a Senior Analyst, covering consumer payments, starting January 3, 2012. 

To provide more specifics, here's a sneak peek at some of the coverage areas where Denée will be able to help Forrester clients with consumer payment strategy in the new year:

  • Defining the future of consumer payments
  • Managing a portfolio of payment products (e.g. credit, debit, prepaid, contactless, mobile, person-to-person (P2P), etc.)
  • The business models and profitability of these payment systems
  • Understanding the dynamics of customer (consumer and merchant) payment behavior
  • Understanding the payments needs of different markets
  • Sizing the different payments market opportunities
  • Driving customer (consumer and merchant) adoption of payments systems
  • Building and developing new payment systems
  • Optimizing existing payment products to improve security and increase convenience
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Are We Headed Toward A Cashless Society?

Carlton Doty

These are exciting—and challenging—times for anyone who is responsible for developing, managing, and innovating consumer products.  Why?  Because digital technology is disrupting everything—the way we communicate with each other; the way we access, store, and share information; the way we purchase and interact with the products and services we use every day; and yes—even the way in which we actually pay for those products and services.  Whether you like it or not, digital disruption is happening everywhere, it’s happening fast, and it’s accelerating.

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