The Predictive Power of Early Morning App Usage

Juan Salazar

Hello! As a new data science analyst at Forrester, I am thrilled to lead analysis of and insights from Forrester’s Mobile Audience Data (MAD). Although my expertise covers most areas of data science, I have a distinct passion for network and text analytics and custom algorithms that unlock the stories behind the data. I most recently worked in the multilateral development space, where I used data science to map the connections of internal and external communications in order to help guide country and sector strategies. I am incredibly excited to use the power and creativity of data science with our clients at Forrester.

My first report analyzes consumers’ reliance on smartphones in their daily routines. Look back over your past week or, better yet, your past month. Can you remember a single morning when you did not look at your smartphone during the first few minutes after waking up? I can’t. Smartphones’ omnipresence in our morning routines means that we can learn a lot from our use of our mobile devices during these early hours of the day. Because we are creatures of habit, we tend to access the same apps and websites in the morning, day in and day out.

For example, look at the most popular apps that US consumers access first thing in the morning. The most-used apps allow consumers to wake up and check on their social lives: 15% of the time, US consumers wake up and check their email. In fact, the clock, email, messaging, and Facebook account for 40% of all early-morning device behaviors.

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The Data Digest: Mobile Online Activities By Generation

Reineke Reitsma

Having analyzed consumers' technology behavior for more than 11 years now here at Forrester, I've seen a certain pattern surface in the uptake of technology: When new technologies become available, it's Generation X (ages 31 to 44) that adopts it first, but it's Generation Y (ages 18-30) that runs with it. Gen Xers have money to spend on technologies when they're still premium-priced, but Gen Yers have the time on their hands to really explore all possibilities. For example, when we look at online activities, young consumers spend more time online and are involved in more activities (especially when we look at social networking). However, for mobile Internet, we see a different pattern emerge.

Forrester's Technographics® data shows that Gen Xers are equally active on their mobile phones, and in some instances, like playing games, they rival the usage of their younger counterparts. In other instances, like checking news, sports, or weather or checking travel status, Gen Xers actually outpace Gen Yers.

Companies that want to target these groups should ensure that their mobile Internet experience is consistent with the regular Internet presence, ensuring a seamless experience for their consumers. The Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group is a perfect example of a company that identified the mobile needs of its clientele and then created a unique experience that allowed users to effortlessly connect both through their mobile device and online.

Windows 7 Early Adopters Were Satisfied Upgraders

JP Gownder

We've just published two new reports concerning Windows 7 adoption and satisfaction, leveraging Forrester's Consumer Technographics(R) data. 

The reports show that Windows 7 penetrated the consciousness of the market by the end of 2009, with a strong majority of US consumers aware of the product.  We also found that consumers who adopted Windows 7 in Q4 were generally very satisfied with their Windows 7 PCs. 

Perhaps the most interesting finding of the reports involves upgrade behaviors. Historically, most consumers have not upgraded their PCs with new OSes -- though Mac users and some technophile consumers have been an exception on this count.  Instead, the majority of consumers have acquired new OSes when they purchase their new PC.  These are known as "replacement cycle upgrades." 

With Windows 7, however, upgrade behavior was much stronger.  Why?  In short, Windows 7 is a thinner client program than was Windows Vista, meaning that it works well on older hardware configurations.  In the past, OSes were designed with Moore's Law as an underlying assumption -- that is, that newer PC hardware would be significantly faster and more powerful than the previous generation's hardware. Windows 7, however, is a less burdensome OS than Windows Vista.  The rise of Netbooks, the physical assets of multi-PC households, and an attachment by many consumers to their Windows XP machines all contributed to the need for a sleeker, thinner Windows OS, which Windows 7 delivered. 

Among early adopters of Windows 7, in Q4, for the first time upgrading behavior matched replacement cycle purchasing, as this Figure shows:

 

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Acer is now #2 PC maker, surpassing Dell

JP Gownder

According to recent shipment data (which Forrester doesn't track), Acer has overtaken Dell to become the #2 PC company in the world behind HP.

This achievement wasn't unexpected -- in August, 2007, we predicted that Acer would become a formidable industry titan: "Acer's announcement that it will acquire Gateway is a clever plan, as Acer simultaneously improves its brand recognition, channel reach, and opportunity for gains in margin. Like IBM Deep Blue, Acer strategists calculated several moves ahead in the global PC chess game. If the execution is solid, this deal will create a powerful third-place PC competitor that will challenge HP and Dell by 2009, and it portends the rise of non-Japanese Asian PC superpowers."

Acer has proven shrewd in product strategy over the past few years. (Indeed, we declared that "even war strategist Sun-Tzu" couldn't have done better!). Acer's work with Ferarri was a masterstroke in branding (from an unexpected company, at the time). Acer's excellence in netbooks has ridden the wave of the market at the right time. More fundamentally, Acer's cost structure benefits from its proximity to Asian-based factories and original design manufacturers (ODMs). Dell, once the king of cost structure, isn't in as privileged a position.  And Acer's access to retail channel (including Gateway's) and experience in SKU management in retail is currently superior to Dell's. (Dell re-entered retail after a long hiatus).

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