When getting introduced to a new subject or new people, we sometimes play a game called "two truths and a lie." The basics of the game are simple: Anyone introducing a subject - or themselves - states two truths and one lie. The audience then has to identify what the lie is.
Below, you will find three bullets related to our future of software development research. Two are truths as identified by our research, one is a lie:
Software's fueling today's disruption, becoming embedded in everything to make technology useful, usable, and desirable.
Software development expertise will increasingly be centered on Java, .NET, and proprietary development and application platforms.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects software-development-related roles and jobs to increase at double the national average through 2020.
As of late 2011, more than half the organizations we surveyed in Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APEJ) are either currently using or actively planning cloud initiatives — 52% in fact. This number has nearly tripled since 2009.
But adoption rates alone don’t tell the whole story. Vendor strategists should also be closely tracking how organizations evolve from ad hoc, disjointed cloud projects to well-defined, effectively managed cloud procurement. Our recent survey results indicate a surprising degree of maturity across the region — along with some clear areas for growth.
Centralized IT procurement of cloud services varies widely across the region. Australia (82%) and India (83%) currently lead in driving centralized procurement and management of cloud services through IT. Both markets are well above the regional average of 74%. This is no surprise for Australia, which is the most mature market for cloud computing in the region. But the strong results for India are surprising, and indicate the strong potential for a sharp increase in demand for cloud services over the next six to 12 months as early projects begin delivering positive returns. Only 66% of respondents in China are currently centralizing cloud procurement and management — not unexpected given the relative lag in cloud adoption in China relative to other APEJ markets.
Organizations in China are least likely to have a formal cloud strategy in place. Fifty-six percent of respondents in China currently see unsanctioned buying by the business outside of IT. This is the highest rate in APEJ by far, where the average is 35% and there are lows of 23% in Australia and 25% in Singapore.
In late 2010 I noted that startup SeaMicro had introduced an ultra-dense server using Intel Atom chips in an innovative fabric-based architecture that allowed them to factor out much of the power overhead from a large multi-CPU server ( http://blogs.forrester.com/richard_fichera/10-09-21-little_servers_big_applications_intel_developer_forum). Along with many observers, I noted that the original SeaMicro server was well-suited to many light-weight edge processing tasks, but that the system would not support more traditional compute-intensive tasks due to the performance of the Atom core. I was, however, quite taken with the basic architecture, which uses a proprietary high-speed (1.28 Tb/s) 3D mesh interconnect to allow the CPU cores to share network, BIOS and disk resources that are normally replicated on a per-server in conventional designs, with commensurate reductions in power and an increase in density.
I attended Trend Forum 2012 last week in Bonn, effectively an analyst day where Deutsche Telekom presented its innovation strategy. There was no focus on overall group strategy. Still, innovation matters greatly as part of the repositioning efforts of telcos. As the role of telcos in the value chain is weakening, largely due to increasing competition by over-the-top providers (OTTPs), telcos need to differentiate themselves increasingly via service provision and their ability to innovate quickly and prolifically. Failure to do so will cement their status as transport utilities for OTTPs.
Deutsche Telekom’s Core Beliefs focus on: a) building its platform business by partnering with software firms; b) leveraging the cloud by providing high QoS and secure connectivity; and c) leverage differentiating terminals through device management and customer experience provision. These Core Beliefs form the basis for pursuing its focus growth segments in digital media distribution, cloud storage, cross-device digital advertising, classified marketplaces, and mobile payment in addition to the core telco business. These targets match up well against our evaluation of best cloud markets for telcos.
A defining characteristic of next-generation network (NGN) infrastructure and the move towards cloud-based business models is openness. As a consequence, OTTPs increasingly deal directly with end customers across the network. Relationships between telcos and other members of value chain become more complex. Emerging cloud services by telcos need to become network agnostic to deliver cross-network solutions and ensure cloud interoperability. Deutsche Telekom has made significant progress in the recent past to adapt its strategy to these new telco realities.
OK, it’s time to stretch the 2012 writing muscles, and what better way to do it than with the time honored “retrospective” format. But rather than try and itemize all the news and come up with a list of maybe a dozen or more interesting things, I decided instead to pick the best and the worst – events and developments that show the amazing range of the technology business, its potentials and its daily frustrations. So, drum roll, please. My personal nomination for the best and worst of the year (along with a special extra bonus category) are:
The Best – IBM Watson stomps the world’s best human players in Jeopardy. In early 2011, IBM put its latest deep computing project, Watson, up against some of the best players in the world in a game of Jeopardy. Watson, consisting of hundreds of IBM Power CPUs, gazillions of bytes of memory and storage, and arguably the most sophisticated rules engine and natural language recognition capability ever developed, won hands down. If you haven’t seen the videos of this event, you should – seeing the IBM system fluidly answer very tricky questions is amazing. There is no sense that it is parsing the question and then sorting through 200 – 300 million pages of data per second in the background as it assembles its answers. This is truly the computer industry at its best. IBM lived up to its brand image as the oldest and strongest technology company and showed us a potential for integrating computers into untapped new potential solutions. Since the Jeopardy event, IBM has been working on commercializing Watson with an eye toward delivering domain-specific expert advisors. I recently listened to a presentation by a doctor participating in the trials of a Watson medical assistant, and the results were startling in terms of the potential to assist medical professionals in diagnostic procedures.
We have just published Forrester's current forecast for the global market for information technology goods and services purchased by businesses and governments (see January 6, 2011, "Global Tech Market Outlook For 2012 And 2013"), and it shows growth of 5.4% in 2012 in US dollars and 5.3% in local currency terms. Those growth rates are a bit lower than our prior forecast in September 2011 (see September 16, 2011, “Global Tech Market Outlook For 2011 And 2012 — Economic And Financial Turmoil Dims 2012 Prospects"), where we projected 2012 growth of 5.5% in US dollars and 6.5% in local currency terms. I would note that these numbers include business and government purchases of computer and communications equipment, software, and IT consulting and outsourcing services equal to $2.1 trillion in 2012, but do not include telecommunications services.
I've blogged and published research before about the emerging Simple Cloud Identity Management (SCIM) standard. The SCIM group has just approved Version 1.0. No, it's not your imagination: important standards around loosely coupled identity management really are being developed, tested, and deployed at a faster rate than ever before.
What does this new pace mean for security pros? New identity protocols can be disruptive to large enterprises that have already deployed older solutions, but these new solutions will enable IT organizations to reduce costs and improve agility in managing access to/from smaller partners and customers that don't have the means to deploy the heavy stuff. That makes access control easier to achieve in a Zero Trust world. (Andras Cser and I touch on the theme of "leaner and cleaner" identity protocols in our just-published Identity And Access Management: 2012 Budget And Planning Guide, and I do a deeper dive, assessing the future of SAML and the business value of newer federation protocols, in OpenID Connect Heralds The "Identity Singularity".)
Based on the very high interest in this blog and its cloud predictions we are planning to host a Forrester Teleconference entiteled "2012 — The Year The Cloud Matures: A Deeper Dive Into 10 Cloud Predictions For The Upcoming Year" on February 28th, 1-2pm EST/6-7pm UK time, where we will highlight and go through the 10 below predictions one by one. For more details and registration please follow the link to the: teleconference web page.
1. Multicloud becomes the norm
As companies quickly adopt a variety of cloud resources, they’ll increasingly have to address working with several different cloud solutions, often from different providers. By the end of 2012, cloud customers will already be using more than 10 different cloud apps on average. Cloud orchestration will become a big topic and an opportunity for service providers.
2. The Wild West of cloud procurement is over
While 2011 still witnessed different stakeholders within a company brokering (sometimes unsanctioned by IT) a lot of cloud deals, most companies will have established their formal cloud strategy by the end 2012, including the business models between IT and lines of business for their own, private cloud resources.