Your workforce is mobile and loving it. They love it because they can get things done anywhere, anytime, on any device. You can almost see happy tails wagging as they check their email. But they haver no idea how disruptive mobile devices are to the IT status quo. Sure, mobile email is a small dog to train. But what about mobile business apps? That dog is bigger than a rhinoceros.
To keep your workforce loving your business applications as they go mobile, you will have to redesign the fundamental architecture for delivering apps. The architecture of Client-Server (and Browser-Server) is inadequate. You will need to build from an architecture of devices and services. The mobile app Internet is that architecture: local apps (including HTML5 browsers) on smart mobile devices and cloud-hosted interactions and data.
My friend and colleague John McCarthy has written a seminal report for Forrester clients sizing the market for the mobile app Internet. In this report, he lays out the growth model for mobile apps (six drivers of growth), segments the market for mobile apps+services (mobile apps, application development, mobile management, and process reinvention), and sizes the total mobile apps+services market ($54.6B by 2015).
This is an important report. Everybody should read it. Here's my take on what it means for content and collaboration professionals:
Starting with CES in early January and through the Mobile World Congress last week in Barcelona, the mobile industry has been in a feeding frenzy of announcement activity. At CES, it was centered on Android-powered tablets. During the Mobile World Congress, it was about the big Microsoft/Nokia deal and vendors scrambling to differentiate their Android handsets.
But behind all these announcements, there is a broader shift going on to what Forrester calls the mobile app Internet and the accompanying broader wave of app development and management. We have just published a report that explores the different vectors of innovation and sizes the mobile app Internet from an app sales and services opportunity.
The report looks at the three factors beyond hardware that will drive the market:
Even at $2.43/app, the app market will emerge as a $38B market by 2015 as more tablets and smart phones are sold and the number of paid for apps per device increases due to improvements in the app store experience.
A perfect storm of innovation is unleashed by the merger of mobile, cloud, and smart computing. I see innovation coming from the combination of apps and smart devices like appliances and cars, improved user experience around the apps by better leveraging the context from the sensors in the devices, and enabling the apps to take advantage of new capabilities like near field communications (NFC) for things such as mobile payments.
Today’s deal between Microsoft and Nokia acts as a temporary lifeline for both companies. It gives Microsoft access to the largest handset provider, and it allows Nokia to defray some of its operating system development costs. I have just finished a report, “Mobile App Internet Recasts The Software And Services Landscape,” that will hit the Forrester site on Monday, February 28.
In the report, Forrester states, “The explosion of app innovation that started on the iPhone and then spread to Android devices and tablets will continue to drive tech industry innovation and have far-reaching pricing and go-to-market implications for the industry. Three different vectors of innovation that have been percolating under the surface will combine over the next 3-5 years. Mobile, cloud, and smart computing together will foster a new set of 'intelligence everywhere' apps.”
And based on that research, I believe that deal does not address the biggest issue for both companies – attracting apps and app developers. For Nokia, it now sends the message that Symbian and MeeGo platforms are no longer the long-term app focus. For Microsoft, it creates an eight-to-twelve month void/pause as developers wait to see what the new Nokia hardware looks like.
At the current rate that Apple and Android are recruiting third-party and enterprise app developers, this could mean a gap of 100,000-200,000 applications by the time the first Nokia Windows Phone device ships. This is likely a lead that even the combined resources of Microsoft and Nokia could not bridge.
There were two important pieces of Nokia news of interest to mobile platform developer partners leaked today. First, Nokia’s MeeGo platform, designed to replace Symbian, will likely be killed before ever reaching the market. Second, Nokia’s CEO Stephen Elop purportedly sent a 1,300 word memo to all Nokia employees that includes key sections such as: “We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning”; and “The first iPhone shipped in 2007, and we still don't have a product that is close to their experience. Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes. Unbelievable.”
This dovetails with what we predicted in a November 2010 report, “The Feeding Frenzy Over The Mobile Developer Channel,” in that it would not be the quality of the underlying platform software (Nokia has remained strong there), but the ease of development, viability of the platform, size of the market, and availability of distribution channels that would settle the mobile platform battle. In all of these factors, Nokia has been steadily falling behind its competitors, led by Apple (iOS), Google (Android), and Microsoft (Windows Phone).
And with the new year, we're implementing a change. In the past months the Data Digest was always based on Forrester's global Consumer Technographics® data. From now on, once a month we'll highlight data from Forrester Forrsights for Business Technology (formerly named Business Data Services).*
In the past year we've looked a number of times at consumers' mobile Internet behaviors and attitudes. But how do enterprises feel about mobile Internet? And which operating systems do they support. My colleague Michele Pelino recently published a report called 'Managing Mobile Complexity' covering these — and many other — questions.
From an enterprise perspective, BlackBerry (RIM) tops the list big time — seven out of 10 enterprises in the US and Europe support this operating system — followed by Microsoft Windows and the Apple iPhone.
But it is important to recognize how quickly enterprise support of new types of mobile device operating systems, particularly those used in Apple iPhones and Android smartphones, has risen in the past year. For example, in 2010, approximately 30% of surveyed enterprises officially support and manage Apple iPhone devices, up from 21% in 2009. We have seen an even larger year-over-year jump in the percentage of enterprises supporting Android devices from Google, Motorola's Droid, Sprint's HTC EVO 4G, and others.
But Empowered isn’t only about employees. It also lays out a strategy for engaging your most influential customers. Consumer product strategy professionals should wield Empowered concepts for exactly that reason – to energize your best customers. In the mobile space, product strategists are looking for ideas to help them develop innovative, leading-edge applications for Smartphone users on platforms like the iPhone or Android. So we’ve just released a report to help product strategists do just that, called “Designing A Mobile Empowered Product Strategy.” It applies ideas from Empowered to product strategy, and includes numerous case studies of mobile applications that exemplify Empowered approaches.
To the surprise of no one, today Apple unveiled the fourth version of its iconic device: iPhone 4. While some features such as the higher resolution camera, LED flash, and front facing camera qualify more as upgrades that put Apple back on par with leading competitors, others such as the "retina" display and the gorgeous industrial design will maintain Apple's mindshare and market share growth rates.
Apple is going to sell a lot of iPhone 4s. They'll sell them to those who simply have to have the new new thing (many of whom are iPhone owners already), and to iPhone owners who were off contract and waiting for the new version. They'll also sell a lot of iPhone 3GSs, especially to iPhone 3G owners who can't stomach going without iOS 4's multitasking, and also to those for whom $15/month is a manageable addition but $30/month is not. That's a whole lot of good news for AT&T and Apple's other carrier partners, though that good news is more in the form of loyalty than in net additions to their networks.