I've just published a Quick Take report that explains why the Nevada District Court’s recent decision on some of the issues in the four-year-old Oracle versus Rimini Street case has significant implications for sourcing professionals — and, indeed, the entire technology services industry — beyond its impact on the growing third-party support (3SP) market.
January 28th was the anniversary of the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster. The Rogers Commission detailed the official account of the disaster, laying bare all of the failures that lead to the loss of a shuttle and its crew. Officially known as The Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident - The Tragedy of Mission 51, the report is five volumes long and covers every possible angle starting with how NASA chose its vendor, to the psychological traps that plagued the decision making that lead to that fateful morning. There are many lessons to be learned in those five volumes and now, I am going to share the ones that made a great impact on my approach to risk management. The first is the lesson of overconfidence.
In the late 1970’s, NASA was assessing the likelihood and risk associated with the catastrophic loss of their new, reusable, orbiter. NASA commissioned a study where research showed that based on NASA’s prior launches there was the chance for a catastrophic failure approximately once every 24 launches. NASA, who was planning on using several shuttles with payloads to help pay for the program, decided that the number was too conservative. They then asked the United States Air Force (USAF) to re-perform the study. The USAF concluded that the likelihood was once every 52 launches.
In the end, NASA believed that because of the lessons they learned since the moon missions and the advances in technology, the true likelihood of an event was 1 in 100,000 launches. Think about that; it would be over 4100 years before there would be a catastrophic event. In the end, Challenger flew 10 missions before it’s catastrophic event and Colombia flew 28 missions before its catastrophic event, during reentry, after the loss of heat tiles during take off. During the life of a program that lasted 30 years, they lost two of five shuttles.
Cisco released its 1st quarter financial statement last week, and the numbers weren’t pretty. But this shouldn’t surprise too many, since the company warned the financial community that the revenue growth was going to be below their expectations. Unlike most, I see this as more of an inflection point in an undulation that swings back into a growth mode that comes with a change in strategy than a parabolic upside-down curve. While there are multiple transformations starting to occur in the networking domain, the Cisco Doomsday-ers seem to solely focus on software-defined networking and the creation of cloud infrastructures; they assume the data center of the future will look like Google’s data centers, even though no one truly, outside of Google, knows how it really runs or what the components are.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume every data center (private or XaaS platforms) will be a Google data center full of white-box components and Cisco’s high margin/feature switches will disappear. Does this mean Cisco becomes irrelevant or loses its position as the 800 lb. gorilla in the networking industry? Heck no. What clearly is being missed by most of the world is the incredible transformation starting to materialize outside the data center. And no, it isn’t the presence of mobile devices. That is today’s transformation that changed the consumer. The business will catch up. Tomorrow’s emergence of Internet of Things (IoT) will enable the business to meet its consumers’ desirers, and Cisco sees it already. Cisco could lose every port in the data centers and still be ahead if you look at where the amount of port growth and network revenue will come over the next 10 years.
One of my colleagues, Karen Rubenstrunk, is a principal advisor for our CIO Executive Program. I’ve known Karen for close to 20 years; she is a superior CIO coach. Recently, we found ourselves discussing the challenges CIOs have communicating business value. Here is Karen’s point of view:
If you’ve been around tech management as long as I have, at some point you’ve had the conversation that keeps on giving (like heartburn): how to better communicate the value of technology to the business.
Like me, I’m sure you’ve continued to wonder why we keep having this conversation over and over and over.
At a recent CIO Group Member Meeting, I found myself drawn into this conversation yet again — and being the lone dissenter in the room about what to do about it. While we kept talking about which new technologies or recent economic trends were making the task of communicating value so difficult, I’ve learned that the real problem isn’t technical, it’s personal: CIOs need to focus on perceptions and invest in the power of personal relationships with business peers.
Perceptions Drive Value
Technology’s perceived value to the institution is directly related to the maturity of the relationship between technology management and other functional managers and their teams, and that relationship is built on two fundamental perceptions: 1) the business’ perception of its dependence on technology, and 2) the business’ perception of technology management competence (see figure below).
Everybody at HIMSS, the annual health care IT conference (http://www.himssconference.org/) is telling the same story. Regulations and the need to reduce the burden of healthcare costs on the American economy is driving innovation to more efficient models of care delivery. The engine behind this drive is a changing model of incentives that reward quality and punish uncoordinated poor-quality care.
Mark Bertolini, CEO of Aetna (HIMSS keynote speaker)
Last week I hosted Media Corp’s CIO Leaders Summit in Sydney. In addition to my emcee duties, I also moderated two panels, both of which inspired significant discussion among the more than 50 senior IT decision-makers present. Highlights included:
Peter Bourke, CIO of Westfield, helped drive a lively discussion on the changing role of the CIO and strategies for leading innovation within the organization versus simply responding to business needs.
Andrew Wiles, CIO of Vodafone, addressed the importance of talent management and the skills that IT professionals require to succeed in a fast-paced business environment.
The CTOs of Avaya and Cisco provided excellent insight from the vendor perspective, while David Gee, CIO of Credit Union Australia, wrapped up the event with a vision of the future — the “microtrends and megatrends” likely to affect our lives, both professionally and personally.
At Mobile World Congress this week, Nokia announced the first three models of its new Android product line, Nokia X. Nokia X is positioned as entry-level smartphones below the Lumia range that nonetheless deliver a more complete smartphone experience with Android application availability than the Asha range. With both 4-inch and 5-inch screen models, the Nokia Store and Microsoft services will also be available on these devices; Bing Search, Outlook, OneDrive, and Skype will come preloaded. Although I am disappointed with the super-old Qualcomm MSM8225 chipset used, it brings high-quality Nokia products to the Android world at only €89 to €109 before tax and operator subsidies.
It was not surprising that Nokia started trialing Android models before the Microsoft deal. However, it is interesting to see that Nokia is now not only launching it just to prove to the public that it has tried to do so, but also that it wants to make it a serious strategy. What does this mean when we are expecting the Microsoft acquisition to complete in just merely a month? And why did Microsoft approve it? Some possible reasons why:
Microsoft can’t yet deliver a good Windows Phone experience at the low price points they want to hit. Now it can — by using Android and old, low-cost chipsets.
Chinese media outlets recently published a speech given by Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei in which he addressed Huawei’s enterprise business. This speech was not only represents the first public enterprise business overview since Huawei entered the market three years ago, but it also details the firm’s enterprise business development strategy for 2014.
First note that Huawei recorded US$2.5 billion in enterprise revenue in 2013, representing year-on-year growth of 33% — which did not meet the company’s expectations. Mr. Ren’s speech shows how Huawei is further fine-tuning its enterprise strategy and what that means for end users. He said that Huawei:
Has an enterprise solution to support your big data strategy. Organizations need to translate huge amounts of data into business outcomes. While Huawei’s big data hardware solution didn’t address business requirements by industry and region, it plans to build complete big data solutions using FusionCube, its converged infrastructure product.
Will centralize its resources in key products and regions. This is a good strategy for Huawei’s enterprise business, which focuses mainly on Asia Pacific and Europe. By concentrating on key countries like China, Japan, and India, Huawei can improve its local service capabilities, including maintenance, tech support, and ecosystem development, via ISVs and SIs.
I'm moving into covering the greater CRM space, yet still retaining a deep focus on customer service technologies. Now-retired analyst extraordinaire, William Band and I put together our top trends for CRM in 2014. These trends are all about leveraging strategies and technologies for better understanding, connecting with, serving, and delighting customers. You can access the full CRM Trends Report for 2014 here.
Trend 2: Enterprises Will Embrace Tools That Create An Outside-In Perspective. To make meaningful improvements, organizations must align their customer experience ecosystems. That requires understanding customers' deep needs, viewing interactions from the customer's perspective, and socializing customer insights - and organizations will embark on this journey in 2014.
Improving the customer experience is the path to achieving business results. In these challenging times, there’s nothing more critical for marketing and strategy professionals to pursue than the customer experience. At our Summit in Shanghai next month, we’re eager to discuss the theme of “Driving Digital Customer Experiences In A Slowing Chinese Economy”..I’m proud to announce the illustrious list of speakers we have pulled together for this year’s summit:
Kicking off the agenda for the day, Harley Manning will speak on customer experience innovation and sizing disciplines that companies need to consider Harley is the co-author of Outside In, Forrester’s book about the customer experience that draws upon 14 years of research. At the summit, Harley will also officially launch the Chinese version of Outside In in conjunction with our publishing partner CITIC Press, a leading business and financial publishing house in China.
China is forecast to become the largest eCommerce market in the world. Zia Daniell Wigder, Vice President and Research Director at Forrester, will address China’s market potential and speak about “Creating Customer-Centric eBusiness Experiences.” Her session will explore opportunities to build successful sales and service ecosystems in China, including what the age of the customer means for Chinese eBusiness customers, and explain how digital tactics are essential to creating customer-centric eBusiness experiences.