I recently published two documents on the outlook for Ethernet services and unified communications in Europe for 2009. I wanted to take this opportunity to call out several important takeaways from these documents:
The adoption of carrier Ethernet services in Europe will accelerate rapidly in 2009, driven by the low cost per bit, simplicity, and flexibility of these services. Service provider MPLS traffic and revenues will also grow in 2009, but will be outpaced by Ethernet traffic and revenue growth. Most providers' infrastructure will continue to offer legacy Ethernet services delivered over SDH/SONET networks while demand persists, but these legacy services will eventually be entirely replaced by VPLS-based services.
What does this mean for I&O professionals? Our clients tell us that they are moving to VPLS-based E-LAN services because any-to-any Ethernet networks are easy to configure and manage and the costs are lower than equivalent MPLS VPNs. They also don’t need any additional expertise in the complexities of IP routing like autonomous systems, border gateway protocols, and open shortest path first. All they need is Ethernet expertise -- which they need anyway in order to LAN. VPLS technology also enables users to deploy hub-and-spoke networks today and then to migrate them to any-to-any topologies when it suits them. You should look at service providers that:
I had an inquiry recently from a Forrester client who wrote that they believe the telecom industry has matured to the degree that there won’t be a new “next big thing.” They cited things like deregulation, the internet, cable, etc., as all disruptive events in the industry and wonder if anyone sees anything new coming on the horizon. I talked to other analysts in the I&O team and we totally disagree with this view. This is how I responded to the client: