A weak global economic recovery and unstable domestic spending slowed economic and tech industry growth in China in 2013, affecting export-oriented economies in Asia Pacific. Combined with ongoing structural problems in India and dwindling foreign direct investment in ASEAN, IT spending growth slowed across the region in 2013. Japan was the only exception; IT spending growth there was faster than expected. Forrester expects overall IT spending growth in Asia Pacific to remain at 4% in 2014. In particular:
Japan’s IT purchasing growth will slow as stimulus effects fade. Government reforms and stimulus packages have had a positive effect on the macroeconomic environment. But those will wane in 2014; we expect Japan’s IT spending growth to slow to around 2% next year, propped up by large application modernization projects in banking, professional services, and retail.
Chinese growth will mostly benefit local vendors. Forrester estimates that China’s IT purchases will grow by 8% in 2014. Local vendors have recently strengthened their capabilities, primarily in the hardware space, while multinational vendors face challenges meeting Chinese government security requirements. As a result, we expect most of China’s 2014 growth to benefit local vendors; foreign vendors face dwindling market shares.
Australia/New Zealand’s shift to systems of engagement will continue its fast pace. Slowing economic growth in 2013 led to an acceleration of the move from capex to opex IT models in ANZ, driven by the need for improved agility in systems of engagement projects. The transformation of systems of record leveraging virtualization and automation approaches has started to erode a lot of the value of the overall IT market. So while the overall ANZ economy should improve, we don’t expect IT spending growth to exceed 3% in 2014.