Scenario modeling is anything but a guess

Emergency management professionals say,  “The plan is useless, but the planning is priceless.”  There is a lesson in there for risk managers and it’s about the value of scenario modeling.

The Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) conducted a study to determine the likelihood and impact of a hurricane hitting New Orleans. FEMA assembled the paramedics, fire department, emergency room doctors, parish officials, and other responders in a hotel in New Orleans for "Hurricane Pam". Their goal was to plan for the worst-case scenario. The group was given the following scenario:

  1. A slow moving, category-3 hurricane would directly hit New Orleans.
  2. The storm surge would cause the levees to top, but not break.
  3. The National Weather Service showed how the storm would form, what track it would take and what parishes would be effected.
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