Two weeks after the Federal government shutdown and two days before the Federal government runs out of means to pay all its bills without additional Federal borrowing, the unthinkable development of a Federal debt default needs to be thought about. The responsibility for this situation lies squarely with the House Republicans, who have refused to bring to a vote a resolution to raise the debt ceiling without conditions. Moderate Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats have been working on a resolution that would raise the debt ceiling until January and re-open the Federal government at current, sequestration-reduced spending levels, in return for initiating negotiations between the White House, Democrats, and Republicans on longer-term deficit reduction plan and some minor adjustments to the Affordable Care Act. While this could well form the basis for a way out of this deadlock before midnight on Thursday, October 17, some House Republicans have already labeled it "a surrender" and vowed to oppose it. So, I think the risk of a Federal debt default is at 10% and rising.