The Asia Pacific (AP) growth engine did not fire on all cylinders in 2012, leading Forrester to revise its IT purchases growth forecasts for the year. While Australia, South Korea, and several ASEAN tech markets are showing continued solid growth, in other markets like China, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam, political leaders are struggling in the face of growing economic problems. My colleague Andy Bartels and I, with the help of Forrester’s AP analyst team, have recently published our revised IT purchase growth forecasts for 2013. Here are our key expectations by country:
2012’s slowdown in China will be short-lived. Despite a slowdown in 2012, China continues to attract intense vendor interest because of its size and potential for further growth. The expected government stimulus efforts in the country will offset factors such as weak demand from businesses and governments. The slowdown in 2012 (+9%) is therefore likely to be short-lived, with stronger growth resuming in 2013 (+10%).
India’s IT growth will remain slower than expected through 2014. 2012 (+7%) was a relatively lackluster year for the tech market in India. Worse than expected economic growth, combined with political gridlock on economic reforms, kept the tech market from reaching its full potential in 2012. While we expect the public sector to drive India’s IT spending growth, the impact will be limited through 2014 due to the parliamentary elections scheduled for that year.
The rapid rise of social media, cloud computing, and mobility in India has started to affect how organizations do business in the country. This is driving a fundamental shift in the CIO role as it moves from classic “plan, build, run” cycle management to a business-oriented, leadership-focused position. To gauge systems integrators’ (SIs’) readiness to support the changing CIO role, Forrester interviewed CIOs at 30 Indian companies and has just published a report on the same. For the purposes of this report, “Indian SIs” includes SIs headquartered in India and multinational SIs doing business in the country. We conducted interviews with CIOs in the form of open discussions; our aim was to determine CIOs’ opinions about their SIs, including how effectively those SIs are shifting to a more value-added, business-oriented engagement model. These interviews yielded some grim findings, as CIOs believe that SIs:
Don’t understand the business requirements of the CIO role. Only 28% of CIOs think that SIs understand their changing business requirements, while 70% of CIOs think that SIs focus too much on technology delivery.
Focus too much on upselling or cross-selling their products and solutions. SI teams, including account managers and consultants, usually focus more on promoting products and services; they have very little knowledge of what CIO and client organizations are looking for and don’t care to learn.
Lack the tools and templates to define the business value of emerging technologies. Most of the CIOs indicated that they believe that SIs are not able to define the business value of emerging technologies.
Government reforms will not positively affect IT spending until 2014. Forrester estimates that India’s IT purchases will grow by 9.5% in local currency in 2013. The Indian government is taking steps to reform initiatives and stimulate the economy in the wake of faltering economic growth caused by inflation as well as corruption, political gridlock, and lack of business investment. However, Forrester expects corporate spending to remain cautious ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2014.
Increasing customer expectations will drive software spending. 94% of the Indian organizations surveyed in our Forrsights Budgets and Priorities Survey, Q2 2012 cited the need to improve their product and services capabilities to meet increasing customer expectations as their top business priority. We therefore expect increased investments in CRM, customer communications management (email marketing software, SMS communication software, etc.), and business process management tool solutions.