US MOBILE PAYMENTS FORECAST 2013-2017: Mobile Payments to Reach $90B by 2017

This week, the National Retail Federation (NRF) held its 102nd Annual Convention and EXPO —Retail's Big Show 2013. Attendees gathered from around the world to demo products and services and exchange ideas about the future of retail, including mobile payments. Mobile payments have captured the attention and imagination of industry insiders, venture capital investors, and innovators. Although retailer investment and consumer adoption have been nascent to date, we see that changing. Forrester forecasts that US mobile payments will reach $90B in 2017, a 48% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the $12.8B spent in 2012.

In my new report out today, titled “US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017”, I outline the growth drivers and inhibitors for the three mobile payments categories: mobile proximity, or in-store payments; mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) and remittances; and mobile remote commerce, or mCommerce. Here are the key takeaways:

  • Mobile payments adoption will be fueled by unprecedented growth in proximity payments. Mobile proximity payments are currently the smallest category within mobile payments, but we expect it to be the fastest growing. Proximity payments will reach $41B, making up nearly half of all mobile payments in 2017. Lower barriers to adoption, increased convenience, and early entrants striving for scale will be important drivers of growth.
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What does the arrival of the Chief Digital Officer mean to the eBusiness team?

I’ve been thinking, talking to clients, and reading a lot recently about the rise of the Chief Digital Officer.

Most of my recent research has been concerning the shift we are seeing in leading organizations in response to their increasingly digitally aware consumers. Much of this has been described in our agile commerce research, and it goes something like this...

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The Art and Science of Building a World-Class B2B eCommerce Business

B2B eCommerce executives today don’t lack for data. What they’re screaming for is insight. With our new playbooks framework, busy executives can go to one place to dip their toes in a subject matter, or fully immerse themselves for deeper insight. Either way, they can move up to speed quickly and smartly about a specific subject. 

Today I’m pleased to announce that Forrester is officially releasing its very first playbook dedicated to B2B eCommerce. Inside you’ll find key insights and critical information specific to the rapidly-emerging B2B eCommerce space. This playbook is designed to help you:

  • Discover the opportunity. Study the fertile landscape that is B2B eCommerce and learn about what Forrester defines as a customer-facing front-end B2B eCommerce market. One that will reach $559 billion by the end of 2013. See how high-performers have developed a compelling vision for the space and a clear business case to prove an always critical return on investment (both documents to be released in the coming months). 
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"State Of Retailing Online 2013" launches on Shop.org today

Forrester recently completed the “State Of Retailing Online 2013: Key Metrics And Initiatives” report in conjunction with our friends at Shop.org. It is available on Shop.org (with a subscription) now.

Some of the reports highlights include the following facts:

  • Web sales continue to grow (duh!). Retailers we surveyed experienced 28% growth on average in 2012 over 2011. Furthermore, 72% of those retailers are experiencing double digit growth.
  • Key eCommerce metrics are improving. The retailers we surveyed generally responded that site conversion rates, average order values and the percentage of repeat shopper sales all grew in 2012.
  • Mobile growth rates are strong.  Mobile commerce grew at a triple digit pace last year for the retailers we surveyed, but off a teeny base. Furthermore, the debate remains on whether mobile traffic with its anemic conversion rates, actually hurts “the mother ship.” Retailers were split on that assessment.
  • 2013 initiatives will focus on site optimization. Of the retailers we interviewed, site conversion rate and redesigning the web experience – in other words, optimizing the overall online experience -- topped the list, yes, more than even investing in mobile. Many retailers specifically called out plans to focus on the checkout experience and to adjust their site to accommodate a responsive design framework.

Shop.org members can access the document here and Forrester clients will be able to access the document on January 28, 2013.

Even The Best Mobile Banking Strategy Can Be A Victim Of Poor Execution

My latest research on Building Next Generation Mobile Banking Solutions has been published for a few days now.  I’ve already gotten phone calls from clients stating this research is not only timely, but speaks to the very challenges their organization is facing when considering how to build next generation mobile banking solutions.   The resounding theme, as my latest research uncovers: Even the best mobile strategy can be a victim of poor execution.  Digital banking executives are feeling the pain of their current mobile banking platform.  While most are plagued with the realization that their current mobile banking platform may not be scalable or flexible enough to deliver next generation mobile banking solutions, others are facing a more disruptive challenge—dealing with the vendor acquisition and consolidation aftermath. Regardless of your current plight, digital banking teams should consider the following as they build next generation mobile banking solutions:

  • A well-defined strategy can fall short in execution. Technology can make or break even the best mobile banking strategy. The pressure is on to get something out the door, but too much focus on short-term delivery has meant that some banks have sacrificed the ability to deliver long-term capabilities.
  • A vendor relationship can hinder or enhance your mobile banking strategy. Banks that are using a vendor that has been recently acquired are burdened with the task of understanding how that acquisition will affect their mobile banking strategy and roadmap.  Specifically, banks are trying to determine if acquisition will require migration to a new platform, dedicated internal resources to support migration activities, or a new vendor altogether.   
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So You Want To Be A Chief Digital Officer?

During my sullen teenage years my father invented a nonsensical, rhetorical question to proffer when conversation ran dry. During particularly quiet moments he’d ask, “So you want to be a movie star?” No, I did not want to be a movie star, but I’d play along and invent similarly nonsensical answers: “Yes, but my agent won’t return my calls,” or “Yes, but Molly Ringwald keeps getting all of my parts” and so on. He still asks to this day and so in this New Year I will ask all of you a related but non-rhetorical question: So you want to be a Chief Digital Officer (CDO)?

Many Forrester analysts and others have taken note of the rise of and need for this position to oversee digital business. Indeed, the rapid and colossal impact of digital disruption is overhauling products, inverting category economics, and redefining customer relationships, requiring new focus and leadership. Where will these CDOs come from? Firms will promote Chief Digital Officers (CDOs) from business units and departments that face the most disruption. In firms that sell products and services directly to customers, we believe that eBusiness and channel strategy professionals are well positioned for a Darwinian rise into the CDO ranks. It’s already happening in firms like Finish Line, Dollar Thrifty Automotive, and MetLife. Many executives in your company see themselves on a similar path — interactive marketers, enterprise architects, and even some CIOs. eBusiness and Channel Strategy Professionals looking to advance their careers must:

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