In a new report out today, my colleague Sarah Rotman Epps writes about the emerging but limited market for fitness wearables like the Nike+ FuelBand and the Jawbone UP. The report finds that only 4% of US online adults, or about 8 million consumers, fit a target profile predictive of buying a fitness wearable. Why so few? It turns out that mainstream consumers’ attitudes are very different from the health-conscious tech optimists buying these products today.
A few months back, we set out to understand how mainstream consumers feel about these devices using our Market Research Online Community (MROC) of 1,500 general US online consumers. As I’m using a wearable health-tracking device, I was excited to learn whether these consumers saw the same value that I saw in these innovative products.
Well, they don’t. In fact, “excited” isn’t even in their vocabulary when it comes to wearable devices. “Waste of money” was more how they described them.
Consumers feel that they know what to do to maintain a healthy lifestyle and use the concept of “moderation” to monitor their health, rather than fancy devices. In general, though, they lack self-awareness of their own unhealthy habits, they don’t feel accountable for their own health, and they expect their primary care doctor to monitor their well-being over the long term. Their perception is that wearable devices are for people who are chronically ill, need help with weight loss, or have obsessive personalities.
eReaders are set to have one of the shortest growth life cycles in device history. Between 2009-2011 the average annual sales of dedicated eReading devices in the US grew by more than 100%. In 2012, US dedicated eReader sales growth will be negative. The decline of the eReader is driven by the availability and affordability of tablets, with global tablet sales in 2012 set to reach more than 120 million.
The Forrester Research eReader And eBook Adoption Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (Global)analyzes eBook adoption drivers across more than 50 countries. Heavy readers like eBooks. In the US, eBook readers read an average of 24 books per year compared with just 15 books for non-eBook readers. In addition, eBook readers are becoming more device-agnostic, with similar eBook reading levels observed across tablets and dedicated eReading devices.
We used the following drivers to calculate our forecast for eBooks and eReaders
I was in the US this week, visiting our headquarters in Cambridge, and the topic of loyalty cards and loyalty programs came up. I live in the Netherlands, and although there are plenty of loyalty programs to subscribe to, the benefits aren’t any way near what you get from loyalty programs in the US. Because of that, I normally base my travel choices more on convenience and price than on the hotel chain or airline. But our North American Technographics® Travel And Auto Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q3 2012 (US) shows that this is different for US travelers.
US hotel travelers clearly see the benefit of subscribing to a loyalty program for the hotels they visit regularly. In fact, our data shows that about 40% of US online leisure hotel travelers belong to at least one hotel loyalty program. And those who belong to a hotel loyalty program are 10 percentage points more likely to recommend a hotel than leisure hotel travelers who are not part of a loyalty program.
However, the majority of leisure travelers who belong to a loyalty program are Gen X; younger travelers account for only a quarter of current loyalty program subscribers. Hoteliers who want to benefit from social sharing and recommendations should tap the potential of their loyal younger customers in particular.
Since the launch of the iPad in 2010, more than 200 million tablets have been sold worldwide. Compare this with the laptop, which went from 2 million unit sales in 1990 to just 29 million 10 years later. Tablets have already started to cannibalize laptop and eReader device sales, as they offer distinct advantages over the laptop — they’re lightweight, have a long battery life, and provide convenience via a touchscreen and their “always on” mode.
· A growing online population: By 2017, the majority of the worldwide online population will reside in Asia Pacific; this region will contain 34% of tablet owners. Europe and North America will follow.
· The fall of tablet prices: For example, the Turkish government plans to distribute domestically produced tablets to 15 million students for free.
Ten years ago, the most common way to connect to the Internet at home was via a PC or a laptop. Now, connectivity at home is increasingly being supplemented by tablets, smartphones, and other media devices, although PCs/laptops still dominate. Consumer electronics device manufacturers cashing in on this shift are offering Internet-ready capabilities in many of their devices. Although the notion of “connected devices” can be quite broad, we focused specifically on game consoles, Blu-ray players, and high-definition (HD) TVs in our recently published Forrester Research Connected Devices Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US). Here is a brief commentary on each of these device segments:
Game consoles: In 2012, the game console manufacturers experienced declining sales. Unlike in the past, when the introduction of a new console generally saw significant uptake in sales, Nintendo’s Wii U (launched in Q4 2012) is not expected to hit the peak sales of the original Wii. We believe that this trend will be seen more broadly in the game console industry. This is largely (though not exclusively) driven by the availability of low-cost/"freemium" titles on smartphones and tablets, which fulfill the gaming needs of the casual gamer — and have a negative impact on the console market. However, we still expect the console market to see moderate growth. By 2017, the majority of consoles will be “connected” to an IP connection because consoles are multi-purpose and allow users to do many activities online such as rent/buy movies and TV shows, purchase games, watch streaming videos, and listen to streaming music.
At this time of the year, many people make resolutions — and many of these are health-related: quit smoking, exercise more, or eat healthier. As anyone who has ever made one of these resolutions knows, it's really hard to make a change. But there’s plenty of technology out there that can help track your progress and give you a bit of support.
Forrester’s Technographics® data shows that about one-third of US online smartphone owners use their phone for healthcare-related activities, ranging from tracking what they eat to text alerts about medication:
However, using technology to track your health hasn’t reached the mainstream yet. In fact, many consumers don’t consider this to be very appealing. Recently, my colleague Lindsey Colella hosted a project in Forrester’s market research online community to better understand the relationship between technology and health. In her report 'Digital Health Management Needs A Makeover To Broaden Its Consumer Appeal', she shows that the average consumer is skeptical about health-tracking technologies. Our respondents believe that using technology to track your health is either for people with a chronic disease or people who are obsessed with their health. Most of them prefer to rely on their doctor for guidance instead.